20180424-法国巴黎银行-MEXICO__ELECTION_TRACKER_77页_4mb

MEXICO: ELECTION TRACKER SUMMARY

Core Content

The document provides an in-depth analysis of the 2018 Mexican presidential election, focusing on the first TV debate and the broader political landscape. It includes insights into voter preferences, candidate strategies, public perception, and the potential impact of debates and media on the election outcome.

Main Candidates and Polls

• Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO):

  • Maintains a strong lead in polls, with a lead of around 20 points in some surveys.
  • His moderate approach and criticism of the PRI's "fear" strategy aim to attract middle-income voters.
  • His amnesty proposal is a key weakness and was heavily criticized by opponents.
  • AMLO remains the frontrunner, with around 70% name recognition among voters.

• Ricardo Anaya:

  • Perceived as the winner of the first TV debate, with effective strategy and proposals.
  • Focused on a "modern Mexico" and presented a universal minimum income plan.
  • Gains support from undecided voters, especially those who previously supported PAN and PRD.
  • Faces less criticism regarding his alleged money laundering case.

• José Meade:

  • A strong contender for the second-place position.
  • Emphasizes continuity and stability, positioning himself as a trustworthy candidate.
  • Faces high rejection rates among undecided voters.
  • Has a strong presence in rural areas, a traditional PRI stronghold.

Key Issues and Voter Concerns

• Security:

  • A major concern, with high homicide rates.
  • AMLO's amnesty proposal is controversial and faces strong opposition.

• Corruption:

  • Ongoing investigations across all parties.
  • A key issue influencing voter decisions.

• Economy:

  • Perceived as being in crisis, with inflation rising from 3% to 6% in 2017.
  • 80% of voters believe the country is facing an economic crisis.

Undecided Voters

• Around 25% of Mexican voters remain undecided.
• Undecided voters are disproportionately from lower-to-middle income groups and the South and North regions.
• Anaya has the lowest rejection rate among undecided voters, while Meade has the highest.
• The undecided group could shift support to candidates who are seen as more likely to win.

Political Strategy and Debates

• TV Debates:

  • The first debate was seen as a key moment for Anaya, who was perceived as more effective.
  • AMLO avoided direct clashes and controversial speeches, maintaining his lead.
  • The second TV debate is scheduled for 20 May 2018.

• Strategic Voting:

  • A significant portion of voters could change their preference based on the perceived likelihood of defeating AMLO.
  • The concept of strategic voting was evident in the 2006 election, where PRI voters shifted to PAN.

Media and Public Perception

• Media Coverage:

  • AMLO and Meade received the most media attention.
  • Anaya's press coverage has turned positive.
  • Meade's strategy includes emphasizing his trustworthiness and stability.

• Social Media and Web Usage:

  • Mexicans are active internet users, but consume less news online than the global average.
  • Social media and web usage are significant sources of news for voters.
  • AMLO's social media presence is strong, with a large following.

Political Parties and Congress

• MORENA (AMLO) leads in the presidential race and has a strong presence in the Congress.
• The ruling party PRI is facing challenges, especially from the opposition.
• The FRENTE coalition, led by Anaya, is also a key player in the election.
• The political spectrum shows a clear divide, with AMLO and Anaya at the extremes.

Conclusion

The 2018 Mexican presidential election is highly competitive, with AMLO maintaining a strong lead. Anaya and Meade are vying for the second place, with Anaya gaining momentum from the first debate. The undecided voter base is significant, and their potential shift could impact the outcome. The role of media and social media is crucial in shaping public perception and influencing voter decisions. The election is expected to be a pivotal moment for Mexican politics.