20180131-法国巴黎银行-BRAZIL_ELECTION_TRACKER_71页_4mb

Brazil: Election Tracker - January 2018

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the Brazilian presidential election landscape in January 2018, focusing on voter intentions, candidate profiles, party dynamics, and media strategies. It highlights the potential impact of Lula da Silva's absence from the race and the rise of other candidates like Bolsonaro, Alckmin, and Silva.

Key Points

1. Voting Intentions (1st Round)

• Lula's Absence: Most of Lula's voters are undecided without him in the race, but some may shift to other candidates.
• Main Candidates: Marina Silva (REDE), Ciro Gomes (PDT), and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) are potential beneficiaries of Lula's absence.
• Rejection Levels: Lula has the highest rejection level among main candidates, while others have varying levels of rejection.
• Polling Trends: The rejection levels of candidates have increased over time, possibly due to the "car-wash" (Lava Jato) investigations.

2. Voting Intentions (2nd Round)

• Potential Candidates: If Lula does not run, Marina Silva (REDE), Bolsonaro (PSL), Alckmin (PSDB), and Ciro Gomes (PDT) are likely to be in the 2nd round.
• Lula's Influence: Even with high rejection levels, Lula is still the favorite in all scenarios, highlighting his significant political influence.

3. Bolsonaro (PSL)

• Background: Jair Bolsonaro is a former army officer with a strong presence in the Chamber of Deputies since 1991.
• Controversial Views: Known for pro-gun, anti-gay, and nationalist stances.
• Social Media Popularity: Has the highest number of likes among pre-candidates, especially on Facebook.
• Media Exposure: Despite his popularity, Bolsonaro's likely small TV and radio time could limit his public exposure.

4. Electoral Media and Advertising

• Campaign Timeline: Electoral advertising begins on 31 August and ends on 4 October for the 1st round and 25 October for the 2nd round.
• Media Programs: Two types of programs are scheduled: large 25-minute programs and smaller daily insertions.
• Ad Time Allocation: In the 1st round, 10% of ad time is equally divided among candidates, while 90% is based on coalition size. In the 2nd round, each candidate gets 50% of daily ad time.

5. Party Composition and Influence

• Main Parties: PT, PDT, REDE, PSDB, PSL, PPS, MDB, and DEM are the main parties involved.
• PT (Workers' Party): Lula is the most likely candidate, with alternatives like Haddad and Wagner.
• PDT (Democratic Labour Party): Ciro Gomes is likely to be their candidate.
• REDE (Sustainability Network Party): Marina Silva is the most likely candidate.
• PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party): Geraldo Alckmin is the most likely candidate, with João Doria as an alternative.
• PSL (Social Liberal Party): Bolsonaro is expected to be the party's candidate.
• PPS (Socialist People's Party): Luciano Huck is a potential candidate.
• MDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement): Plays a key role in coalitions despite not having a clear candidate.
• DEM (Democrats): Could invite Luciano Huck as a candidate.
• NOVO (New Party): Joao Amoedo is the expected candidate for the first time in the elections.

6. Voter Profile

• Education, Income, and Age: Data shows varying levels of support across demographics.
• Internet Access: 42.2% of Brazilians had no internet access in 2015, making TV and radio the primary sources of information.
• Social Media Influence: Those with internet access are more likely to research candidates online.
• Geographical Distribution: Voter distribution varies across regions, with some areas showing higher support for certain candidates.

7. Polling Methodology

• Institutes: Datafolha and Ibope are the main polling institutes, with different methodologies.
• Sampling: Datafolha focuses on urban centers, while Ibope uses census data.
• Institute Bias: Shows deviations in results from the 2014 election, indicating potential differences in data interpretation.

Conclusion

The 2018 Brazilian presidential election is marked by significant political dynamics, with Lula's absence creating uncertainty among his supporters. Bolsonaro's rise is notable due to his social media presence and controversial views, though his limited media exposure may hinder his campaign. The document emphasizes the importance of tracking public sentiment and media strategies, as they play a crucial role in shaping voter behavior and election outcomes.