世界劳工组织-世界就业和社会展望：2018趋势（英文）-2017-82页-2mb

Summary of World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018

Core Content

The World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018 report provides an analysis of global employment and social trends, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the context of economic growth, structural transformation, and demographic changes. It emphasizes the need for policies that ensure decent work and improve labor market outcomes across different regions and income groups.

Main Points

Global Economic Growth

• Global economic growth rebounded to 3.6% in 2017, up from 3.2% in 2016, marking the first year since 2010 where actual growth exceeded projections.
• Growth is expected to remain moderately stable but low, with a projected 3.7% for 2018 and beyond.
• The recovery was broad-based, with expansions in both developing and developed countries.
• However, growth potential is declining, with the five-year forecast dropping from 4.8% in 2011 to 3.8% in 2017.
• Fixed investment remains subdued, and low productivity growth due to slow innovation and trade integration further limits growth.

Global Unemployment

• Global unemployment remains elevated, with over 190 million unemployed in 2018.
• The global unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly from 5.6% in 2017 to 5.5% in 2018, but the number of unemployed is expected to stay stable or increase slightly.
• In developed countries, the unemployment rate is projected to fall to 5.5% in 2018, below pre-crisis levels.
• In emerging countries, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.5% in 2018, with the number of unemployed increasing by 0.4 million.
• In developing countries, unemployment is expected to rise by 500,000 per year from 2018 to 2019, with the rate at 5.3%.

Vulnerable Employment

• Vulnerable employment (own-account and contributing family workers) is on the rise.
• In 2017, around 42% of global workers (or 1.4 billion) were in vulnerable employment.
• The rate is expected to remain high in developing and emerging countries, at 76% and 46%, respectively.
• The number of vulnerable workers is projected to increase by 17 million per year in 2018 and 2019.

Working Poverty

• Working poverty remains widespread, with over 300 million workers in emerging and developing countries living on less than $1.90 per day (PPP) in 2017.
• The pace of working poverty reduction is slowing, and the number of people in extreme working poverty is expected to exceed 114 million in 2018.
• Moderate working poverty (between $1.90 and $3.10 per day) affects 430 million workers in emerging and developing countries.
• Progress in reducing extreme working poverty is expected to slow, with a reduction of 10 million per year in 2018 and 2019.

Regional Variations

• Developed countries are expected to continue their sixth consecutive year of declining unemployment, but labour underutilization remains high.
• Emerging countries saw a significant rise in unemployment between 2014 and 2017 due to economic downturns and commodity price slumps.
• Developing countries face persistent challenges in job quality and working poverty.
• Youth unemployment is particularly high, with a global rate of 13% (three times the adult rate of 4.3%), especially in Northern Africa and the Arab States.

Structural Transformation

• The service sector is expected to absorb a growing share of employment across all income groups.
• Agricultural employment continues its long-term decline.
• Manufacturing employment is expected to decline in upper middle-income and developed countries, while only marginally increasing in lower middle-income ones.
• This trend is associated with "premature deindustrialization", where lower-income countries are moving away from manufacturing earlier than developed ones.
• Structural transformation is likely to increase the incidence of vulnerable and informal employment, as workers shift from agriculture to services, where working conditions are generally poorer.

Population Ageing

• Population growth is slowing, with rising life expectancy and declining birth rates.
• By 2030, the old-age economic dependency ratio is expected to rise to 5 out of 10 in developed countries, up from 3.5 in 2017.
• The average age of the global labor force is expected to rise from 40 in 2017 to 41 in 2030, with Europe and China seeing the most significant increases.
• Population ageing poses challenges to pension systems and labor market inclusiveness, as older workers may struggle to adapt to new technologies and changing job requirements.
• Old-age poverty is closely linked to existing labor market inequalities, as workers with poor working conditions and low incomes have less access to retirement savings.

Key Information

• Global unemployment is expected to remain above 192 million in 2018.
• Vulnerable employment is projected to increase by 17 million per year in 2018 and 2019.
• Working poverty remains a significant issue, with 300 million workers in emerging and developing countries living in extreme working poverty in 2017.
• Structural shifts to the service sector may reduce the impact of formalization on job quality due to the higher incidence of poor working conditions.
• Population ageing is expected to increase dependency ratios and challenge labor market inclusiveness, especially in developed countries.
• Gender and youth inequalities persist in labor market participation and job quality, with women and young people facing higher unemployment and lower access to decent work.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for inclusive and employment-intensive growth to address global labor market challenges. It also highlights the importance of formalizing employment, improving working conditions, and promoting lifelong learning to support older workers and reduce old-age poverty. Policy efforts must focus on structural transformation and social protection to ensure decent work outcomes for all.