20240413-浙商证券-策略研究报告_把握时机_算力重拾升势_红利趋势仍在_13页_927kb

A-Share Strategy Weekly Report Summary

Introduction

The report highlights that while the A-Share market is expected to grow slowly in 2024, it will be driven by structural opportunities in computing power and dividend revaluation. This follows a trend since 2022, where a new industrial cycle has enabled a structural bull market. The key market feature is low-volume participation and slow index growth.

Macro Perspective

The Chinese economy is projected to continue its gradual recovery, supported by policy stimulus and global inventory restocking. This should lead to an upward trend in broad indices, such as the Shanghai Composite, but with limited volatility. Fund inflows remain constrained, as evidenced by low new stock and hybrid fund share issuance, indicating a market focused on rebalancing.

Structural Opportunities

2024 is a key structural year, with computing power and dividend revaluation emerging as major themes. Investors should adopt a strategic long position in these areas, as they prioritize fundamentals over expectations. Computing power is advancing beyond optical modules to include new AI technologies and domestic supply chains, while dividends are driven by improved corporate profitability and stable payouts.

Recommendations

Focus on sectors with strong earnings potential, such as AI上游 companies based on upcoming earnings reports, and traditional industries like coal, petroleum, and telecommunications. Dividend opportunities exist in sectors with efficient capital use and high payout ratios. Caution is advised due to risks like slower economic recovery or weaker industry cycles.

The report suggests that while the market is slow-moving, investing in computing power and dividends can capitalize on ongoing trends, with mutual fund reallocations expected later in 2024 if economic indicators hold.