2021-11-24-瑞士信贷集团-澳门博彩业_对有吸引力的风险回报持积极态度_52页_1mb

报告摘要

Date: November 25, 2021
Key Finding: The Macau gaming sector is turning positive with improved risk-reward, despite low market expectations.
Regulatory Outlook:
- Proposed gaming law is less stringent than feared, with limited additional licenses expected.
Recovery Path:
- Revised estimates show mass GGR reaching 95% of 2019 levels by 2023, faster than previously expected.
Sector vs. Previous View:
- Unlike before, recovery is driven by mid-end mass players and has less reliance on high-end demand.
Key Upgrades and Valuations:
- Based on better visibility and reduced downside risks.
- Sands China target price raised to HK$31, Galaxy to HK$62, SJM to HK$9.4.
- EBITDA lifts reflect higher growth expectations.
Valuation Approach:
- Using replacement cost (casino + hotel) instead of EBITDA multiples due to limited profitability visibility.
- Average 40-50% discount to replacement value provides floor for most names.