期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-summer03_60页_659kb

NBER Summary: The Economics of Aging

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has been conducting research on the Economics of Aging, focusing on the financial and social challenges faced by older Americans in the context of demographic, economic, and health trends. This report outlines the key findings and research directions of the NBER Program on the Economics of Aging.

Main Themes and Key Findings

1. Demographic and Economic Trends

• Population aging: The U.S. population is aging rapidly, with the baby boom generation beginning to retire around 2008. The number of Americans aged 62 and older is expected to double in 30 years, while the working-age population will grow by only 12%.
• Retirement age decline: The average retirement age has dropped from 65 to 62 over the past 30 years.
• Healthcare costs: National health care expenditures have grown from $250 billion in 1980 to over $1.4 trillion today, and this trend is expected to continue.
• Retirement savings: Personal retirement accounts (like 401(k) plans) have become a major source of retirement savings, with about 85% of contributions now going to these accounts. The ratio of retirement plan assets to wage and salary earnings has increased more than fivefold since 1975.
• Social Security: Social Security remains a critical source of retirement income, but its redistributive effects are complex, with lower-income households receiving a larger proportion of their income from it.

2. Retirement Saving Behavior

• Variation in saving rates: Saving rates vary significantly across income levels, leading to differences in asset accumulation.
• Default provisions: The "default" contribution rates in 401(k) plans have a significant impact on how much individuals save, with automatic enrollment increasing participation and contributions.
• Peer influence: Research shows that peer behavior also plays a role in retirement plan participation.
• Asset allocation: Studies reveal that the mix of debt and equity in personal retirement accounts varies widely among individuals, with some holding only equities and others only debt.

3. Social Security and Retirement Policies

• Social Security reform: Reforms that blend the current system with investment-based components could increase expected benefits for most beneficiaries and reduce the percentage of elderly women living in poverty.
• Retirement age and policy incentives: The relationship between retirement policies and labor market behavior is strong, with economic incentives influencing the age at which individuals retire.
• Joint retirement decisions: The economic incentives in one spouse's retirement plan can significantly affect the retirement timing of both spouses.
• Global perspective: The NBER has also conducted cross-national studies on social security systems and retirement behaviors in various countries, including Germany, Belgium, Canada, and Japan. These studies highlight the fiscal implications of reforming retirement policies.

4. Health and Socioeconomic Status

• Health disparities: There is a strong correlation between socioeconomic factors (income, education, wealth) and health outcomes (self-reported health, mortality).
• Income and health: Research by Deaton and Paxson shows that income has a positive effect on health, even in childhood, with lower income leading to worse health outcomes over time.
• Relative deprivation: The concept of relative deprivation (low income compared to a reference group) has been explored as a potential influence on health, but its effect appears limited.
• Health insurance: Availability of health insurance is an important determinant of retirement decisions, as found by Gruber and Madrian.

5. Use of Assets and Consumption Patterns

• Housing equity: While housing equity is a major asset for retirees, it is rarely used for general consumption during retirement unless there is a precipitating event (e.g., divorce, nursing home entry).
• Bequests: The distribution of bequests is highly skewed, with many older Americans leaving only modest inheritances. A large portion of household wealth is derived from individual saving decisions rather than intergenerational transfers.
• Annuities: Research indicates that those who purchase annuities tend to live longer, and thus annuity pricing must account for this differential. Annuities may play a growing role in retirement planning as more assets are accumulated in personal retirement accounts.

Key Research Projects and Publications

• NIA-funded projects: The National Institute on Aging (NIA) has provided extensive funding for the Aging Program, supporting both large research projects and smaller exploratory studies.
• Working Papers: Over 100 working papers are produced annually by participants in the NBER Aging Program. Many of these papers are published in books by the University of Chicago Press.
• Global comparative studies: These studies examine the impact of social security systems and retirement policies across multiple countries, emphasizing the need for sustainable reforms.

Future Research Directions

• Risk exposure: The program is exploring the risks associated with different forms of retirement savings, particularly the market risk of personal retirement accounts.
• Fiscal implications: The third phase of the cross-national project examined the fiscal impact of various social security reforms, with findings suggesting significant benefits in countries like Germany.
• Health and economic outcomes: The relationship between health and socioeconomic status continues to be a focus, with an emphasis on the long-term effects of income inequality and access to healthcare.

Conclusion

The NBER's Aging Program provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic and social challenges associated with aging, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interplay between demographics, policy, behavior, and health. The research highlights the growing role of personal retirement accounts, the complexity of Social Security reform, and the impact of health on economic outcomes and vice versa.