期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-summer1999_56页_4mb

NBER Program on the Economics of Aging Summary

Core Content

The NBER Program on the Economics of Aging focuses on understanding the economic implications of an aging population in the United States and globally. It examines issues such as retirement decisions, saving behavior, health care costs, and the impact of demographic changes on financial and social systems. The program is supported by the National Institute on Aging (NIA) and has been instrumental in advancing research on aging-related economic challenges.

Main Research Areas

• Saving and Financial Circumstances of Older Americans
• Work and Retirement Decisions
• Health Care and Its Costs
• Aging Around the World

Key Findings and Views

1. Saving and Retirement Support

• Retirement support is transitioning from traditional sources (Social Security, pensions, and health insurance) to personal savings (especially 401(k) and IRA plans).
• 401(k) plans have become a major component of retirement savings, with over $100 billion contributed annually.
• Studies by Venti, Poterba, and Wise show that 401(k) and IRA savings are new saving, not a replacement for previous forms.
• Future projections indicate that 401(k) assets could significantly contribute to retirement income, especially for those with above-average earnings.

2. Impact of 401(k) on Saving Behavior

• David Laibson introduced the concept of hyperbolic discounting, where people discount future benefits more heavily than they should, leading to inconsistent saving behavior.
• Commitment mechanisms such as payroll deductions and withdrawal penalties help increase saving by reducing the temptation to spend immediately.
• Simulations suggest that 401(k) plans could raise the national saving rate by at least 89 percent.

3. Composition of Retirement Savings

• Andrew Samwick and others analyzed the composition of retirement wealth using the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS).
• A significant portion of retirement wealth is in entitlement benefits (pensions, Social Security, and health insurance).
• Annuities are found to be underutilized among older Americans, but their expected payout value is high when mortality rates are considered.

4. Social Security and Retirement Decisions

• Jeff Liebman found that lower-income individuals have higher effective returns from Social Security.
• Kathleen McGarry and Robert Schoeni showed that Social Security benefits have significantly influenced the living arrangements of elderly widows, increasing the proportion living alone.
• Robin Lumsdaine, James Stock, and David Wise found that traditional pension plans encourage early retirement, while Social Security has a later eligibility.

5. Labor Force Participation and Retirement

• Early retirement is becoming more common, with younger ages being the norm.
• Part-time work is increasingly used as a transition to retirement, especially among older men.
• Leora Friedberg found that part-time work among men aged 60–64 increased from 9.9% to 18% between 1980 and 1997.

6. Health Insurance and Labor Market Decisions

• Brigitte Madrian and David Cutler found that rising health insurance costs may lead employers to reduce workforce size or increase hours.
• The availability of health insurance influences self-employment and job mobility.
• Workers with spouses having health insurance are more likely to become self-employed if they have continuation coverage.

7. Health Care and Aging

• The United States has the highest health care costs globally, and the aging population will only increase this burden.
• The NBER has developed comprehensive data resources for health care research, including Medicare claims, employee insurance data, hospital records, and survey data linking health and economic status.

8. Health Care Expenditures

• Medicare expenditures are highly concentrated among the top beneficiaries.
• The top 10% of beneficiaries account for 64% of annual Medicare spending.
• Top 2% of beneficiaries account for over 25% of total Medicare spending.
• Expenditure growth has been even more concentrated over the past decade.
• Individual expenditures are not persistent over time, with many high spenders dying or reducing spending after a year.

9. Innovation in Survey Methods

• The HRS and AHEAD surveys use bracketing techniques to measure wealth and consumption.
• These methods can introduce response biases, which may affect average savings balances and consumption levels.
• Subjective mortality expectations are close to life tables, but become more optimistic at older ages.
• These expectations may influence saving decisions, though limited explanatory power due to the use of "round numbers" by respondents.

Conclusion

The NBER's Program on the Economics of Aging is a multidisciplinary initiative that explores the economic and social implications of an aging population. It emphasizes policy-relevant research, particularly in retirement savings, labor market dynamics, and health care costs. The program has made significant contributions to understanding how demographic changes affect individual and aggregate economic outcomes, and it continues to support new researchers and develop data resources to further this field.