期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Summer1986_56页_908kb

NBER Reporter Summary - Summer 1986

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for the summer of 1986 provides an overview of the research activities within the Program of Research in Economic Fluctuations. This program focuses on understanding the dynamics of the U.S. economy, particularly the causes and effects of economic contractions and expansions. It examines macroeconomic variables such as inflation, employment, interest rates, and investment, and explores the interactions between financial markets, monetary policy, and real economic activity.

The report highlights the contributions of various researchers and their projects, covering a wide range of topics including financial and monetary systems, consumption behavior, product market structures, inflation and disinflation, and structural models of economic behavior. It also outlines the organizational structure of the NBER, including its directors and research groups, and emphasizes the dissemination of research through NBER Working Papers and Reprint Series.

Main Research Topics and Key Contributions

Financial and Monetary Topics

• Ben S. Bernanke investigates how financial market phenomena like panics, disintermediation, and deregulation affect the real economy. He also tests structural models of the relationship between money, credit, and output.
• Thomas J. Sargent and colleagues examine interest payment systems on bank reserves and study how agents learn from economic data. They are also working on reconciling empirical results with equilibrium investment theories under uncertainty.

Investment

• Matthew D. Shapiro and colleagues analyze the demand for business fixed capital and the role of risk and volatility in asset markets.
• Robert S. Chirinko develops a general framework for investment models and applies it to empirical studies on tax policy, Tobin’s q, and new orders/expenditures. He also explores the impact of information on bank loan rates and lending activity.

Consumption

• Marjorie A. Flavin studies individual consumption and asset demand decisions, and has examined the consistency of government deficits with future surplus expectations.
• Martin Eichenbaum investigates the empirical determinants of aggregate consumption and asset price fluctuations. He questions the usefulness of representative consumer models and finds limited evidence for exogenous monetary shocks as a source of postwar U.S. output fluctuations.
• Angus Deaton focuses on life-cycle models and the testing of Euler conditions, suggesting that representative consumer models are not very useful in explaining aggregate consumption behavior.

Structure of Product Markets

• Dennis W. Carlton examines price rigidity and market structure, developing models to explain the endogenous flexibility of prices. He also explores the implications for inventory behavior and market responses to shocks.
• Olivier J. Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers study wage and price setting, and the dynamics of labor markets. Their work addresses the causes of long-term unemployment and the role of insider-outsider interactions.

Inflation and Disinflation

• Robert J. Gordon analyzes the Phillips curve and the role of flexible exchange rates in U.S. disinflation. He also investigates productivity slowdowns and the measurement of service sector productivity.
• Stanley Fischer studies disinflation in both moderate and hyperinflationary contexts, emphasizing the role of exchange rates and wage indexation. He argues that exchange rate targets can reduce the cost of disinflation in small open economies.

Structural Models

• Angelo Melino reviews asset pricing models, including the term structure of interest rates and the consumption-beta model. He also explores continuous-time versions of the arbitrage pricing theory.
• Rudiger Dornbusch examines exchange rate dynamics, LDC debt, and the causes of inflation and hyperinflation, including historical cases from the 1920s and Latin America.
• Herschel I. Grossman focuses on choice-theoretic models of monetary and fiscal policy, including reputational equilibriums, seigniorage, and sovereign debt. He also investigates the implications of these models for econometric analysis and asset price behavior.

Trade Policy

• Kala Krishna studies the effects of trade restrictions, particularly Voluntary Export Restrictions (VERs) and content protection schemes, on strategic interactions in imperfectly competitive markets. Her research suggests that VERs may not improve national welfare due to the negative impact on consumers, while content protection schemes can influence domestic profits and wages depending on the elasticity of substitution between inputs.

Research Groups and Dissemination

• The NBER organizes small workshop groups and Summer Institute groups for collaborative research. These groups focus on topics such as the relationship between security markets and real economic activity, industry structure and macro performance, and wage structure and unemployment.
• NBER Working Papers are the primary medium for disseminating research findings. Since 1984, the program has produced 131 Working Papers and Reprints.

Key Information

• The Program of Research in Economic Fluctuations is a key initiative of the NBER, focusing on macroeconomic dynamics and their implications.
• Research spans multiple areas including financial markets, monetary policy, investment and consumption behavior, product market structures, and inflation dynamics.
• The NBER is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to objective quantitative analysis of the American economy.
• The NBER Reporter is an informational publication that highlights ongoing research, conferences, and policy-related discussions without editorial review.

NBER Officers and Directors

• Chairman: Franklin A. Lindsay
• Vice Chairman: Richard N. Rosett
• Treasurer: Charles A. Walworth
• President and CEO: Martin Feldstein
• Executive Director: Geoffrey Carliner
• Directors at Large: Includes prominent economists like Moses Abramovitz, Robert V. Roosa, and Peter G. Peterson.
• Directors by University Appointment: Includes scholars from major institutions such as Harvard, Yale, and MIT.
• Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations: Reflects the NBER's broad network and interdisciplinary approach.

Conclusion

The 1986 NBER Reporter illustrates the breadth and depth of research conducted within the Program of Research in Economic Fluctuations, emphasizing the interplay between macroeconomic variables, financial markets, and policy implications. The report also underscores the importance of empirical analysis, theoretical modeling, and collaborative research in advancing economic understanding.