20240128-华鑫证券-定量策略周报_央国企红利反弹共识_关注下周FOMC_19页_1mb

Summary of Hua Xin Securities Weekly Report

The report covers market analysis for CYBER Dividend Rebound Consensus for the week of January 28, 2024. Key themes include US dollar liquidity issues from events like BTFP stop payment, which signal a slight decline in loose monetary policies. In the A-share market, a bottom rebound occurred due to three main factors: unexpected policy support from the central bank (including base money reduction and targeted interest rate cuts),国资委 certification that central enterprise market value management is included in performance assessment, and stock exchange policies like those in New Area Development and investor-focused measures. Additionally, derivative product clearing improved fund inflows. While foreign capital flowed back 121 billion yuan weekly, ETF funds contributed over 500 billion yuan for two weeks, and fund manager positions increased, the rebound was fragmented with institutional holdings in growth stocks unchanged, indicating persistent pessimism that needs data validation. Short-term, the market should be seen as a rebound.

Sector recommendations emphasize value stocks, with high dividend concentrations: commending building materials, construction, transportation, home appliance, electric power utilities, and food industries based on high dividend yield and congestion. This should be balanced with opportunities in undervalued tech sectors where overseas influences have weakened, such as computer (e.g., Harmony OS, military satellites) and consumer electronics, given policy support. Core assets and safety plays like food, electric power new energy, and precious metals are also highlighted. Overall market advice maintains an 80% portfolio allocation, with themes like urban investment companies, Shanghai Free Trade Zone, large-scale infrastructure, affordable housing, and insurance showing high trading interest.

Investment highlights include weekly ETF recommendations: Computer ETF (ticker 159998) and Cloud Computing ETF (516510), reflecting focus on emerging tech. The report advises risk awareness due to model limitations from historical data and market changes, with a quant team led by analysts like Lv Sijiang and Ma Chen stressing growth and cycle styles, supporting dividend leaders for now while seeking equilibrium with smaller-value stocks after derivative risks are managed.