20260205-招银国际-中际旭创-300308.SZ-Pluggables_first,_new_architecture_later_5页_755kb

报告摘要

Pluggable modules are expected to continue dominating hyperscaler scale-out/scale-across deployments through 2026-2027E.
Innolight is positioned to retain a structurally irreplaceable role in the pluggable optical transceivers market.
CPO adoption is unlikely to be significant before late-2027, due to practical constraints such as reliability, serviceability, and ecosystem maturity.

Recent earnings from Lumentum and Coherent suggest faster-than-expected expansion in upstream InP capacity, especially for EML and high-speed CW lasers.
Innolight's earnings preview showed a 108% YoY increase in net profit to RMB10.8bn (mid-point), in line with forecasts.
The target price (TP) remains at RMB707, with a 26.3% upside from the current price of RMB560.
The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 280x (FY23A) to 16.1x (FY27E), indicating strong earnings growth potential.

Year	Revenue (RMB mn)	YoY growth (%)	Net Profit (RMB mn)	YoY growth (%)
FY23A	10,718	11.2	2,174	77.6
FY24A	23,862	122.6	5,171	137.9
FY25E	38,054	59.5	10,950	111.7
FY26E	83,794	120.2	27,774	153.6
FY27E	112,154	33.8	38,357	38.1

Revenue growth is projected to accelerate significantly, with 120.2% YoY growth in FY26E.
Gross margin is expected to rise from 33.0% (FY23A) to 46.3% (FY27E).
Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB2,174 million (FY24A) to RMB38,357 million (FY27E).
EPS (Reported) is projected to increase from RMB9.95 (FY24A) to RMB34.85 (FY27E).

Metric	2022A	2023A	2024A	2025E	2026E	2027E
Revenue Growth (%)	25.3%	11.2%	122.6%	59.5%	120.2%	33.8%
Gross Margin (%)	29.3%	33.0%	33.8%	42.0%	46.2%	46.3%
Operating Margin (%)	13.8%	23.3%	25.4%	35.9%	41.8%	43.1%
ROE (%)	10.4%	16.6%	31.0%	44.4%	63.8%	51.5%

Innolight is the dominant supplier of 1.6T pluggable modules, with shipments accelerating through 2026-2027.
SiPh solutions account for ~50% of 2025 shipments and will support structural margin expansion.
Order visibility extends into the near-to-mid term, with no structural risk to the company's earnings potential.

The report is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
Investors should independently evaluate particular investments and strategies.
CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States or Singapore and not subject to relevant regulations.
Past performance does not guarantee future results and actual events may differ materially from those in the report.