20151109-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_12页_1mb

报告摘要

A-share Research Highlights Summary

Core Content

In November 2015, the A-share market showed signs of stabilization and a strong rebound, particularly in the securities industry. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 10.80% in October, reaching its highest level in nearly 6 months. The A-share average daily turnover increased by 34.44% MoM to RMB810.806 billion, indicating improved market activity. The financial balance for the two financial balances also rose by 3.61% MoM to RMB986.962 billion, suggesting a reversal of the downward trend.

The securities brokerage industry's fundamentals appeared to be turning around, with all brokers reporting monthly net profit growth. Notably, Pacific (601099 CH) saw a +4048% MoM increase, Sealand (000750 CH) +504%, and Guosen (002736 CH) +365%, all outperforming their peers. The research firm had previously identified the bottom in the third quarter or September, and the October performance validated these predictions, indicating a market turnaround.

A total of 23 brokers recorded a net assets growth of RMB16.563 billion as of the end of October, which was the highest growth since the stock market crash. The growth was primarily driven by profits from equity assets available for sale. Most listed brokers showed positive "net assets changes-net profit" figures, suggesting improved financial health.

The research firm remains cautiously optimistic about the sector. While the rise in brokers' performance is not strongly correlated with results expectations, the fundamentals are still expected to be around 20% lower than 2015 even in the most optimistic scenario. The firm believes history will not simply repeat and maintains its previous view. With improvements in various sectors in the fourth quarter, allocations to brokers can be increased, but caution is advised at highs, and buying after a correction is recommended.

Key Risks

Innovative business development below expectation
Industry consolidation
Mixed business operations
Internet finance impacts

What to Watch

Economic Data

Country	Date	Event	Prior	Forecast
Germany	2015/11/09	Exports MM SA	-5.18%	2.10%
Germany	2015/11/09	Imports MM SA	-3.10%	1.00%
Germany	2015/11/09	Trade Balance, EUR, SA	19.60bn	20.00bn
Euro zone		Sentix Index	11.70	14.00
China	2015/11/10	M2 Money Supply YY	13.10%	13.20%
China	2015/11/10	New Yuan Loans	1,050.00bn	798.20bn
China	2015/11/10	Outstanding Loan Growth	15.40%	15.50%
China	2015/11/10	PPI YY	-5.90%	-5.80%
China	2015/11/10	CPI YY	1.60%	1.50%
U.S.	2015/11/11	Import Prices MM	-0.10%	-0.20%
China	2015/11/10	Urban investment (ytd) yy	10.30%	10.20%
China	2015/11/10	Industrial Output YY	5.70%	5.80%
China	2015/11/10	Retail Sales YY	10.90%	10.90%
Japan	2015/11/12	Machinery Orders MM	-5.70%	3.30%
Germany	2015/11/09	CPI Final YY	--	0.30%
Germany	2015/11/09	HICP Final YY	-0.20%	0.20%
Euro zone		Industrial Production MM	-0.5%	0.1%
U.S.	2015/11/13	EIA Weekly Crude Stocks	2.85mn	--
U.S.	2015/11/13	Federal Budget, $	91.1bn	--
Germany	2015/11/09	GDP Flash QQ	0.4%	0.4%
Euro zone		Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur	11.2bn	--
Euro zone		GDP Flash Estimate QQ	0.3%	0.4%
U.S.	2015/11/13	PPI Final Demand MM	-0.5%	0.1%
U.S.	2015/11/13	Core PPI Final Demand MM	-0.3%	0.1%
U.S.	2015/11/13	Retail Sales MM	0.1%	0.2%
U.S.	2015/11/13	U Mich Sentiment	92.1	90

Company Events

Date	Ticker	Company	Event
2015/11/09	442 HK	KTL International Holdings Group Ltd.	INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	577 HK	Louis XIII Holdings Ltd.	INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	3355 HK	Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation Ltd. - H Shares	RESULTS (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8006 HK	Sino Splendid Holdings Ltd.	RESULTS/SN/INT DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8009 HK	Chinese Energy Holdings Ltd.	2ND QUARTER RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8011 HK	Polyard Petroleum International Group Ltd.	3RD QTR RES/INT DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8017 HK	Long Success International (Holdings) Ltd.	INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8022 HK	Evershine Group Holdings Ltd.	3RD QUARTER RES/DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8029 HK	Sun International Resources Ltd.	INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8047 HK	Sky Forever Supply Chain Management Group Ltd.	RESULTS/DIV (6-MTH-ENDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8061 HK	AcrossAsia Ltd.	RESULTS/INT DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8088 HK	AID Partners Capital Holdings Ltd.	3RD QTR RES/INT DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8092 HK	ITE (Holdings) Ltd.	2ND QTR RES/INT DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8095 HK	Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co. Ltd. - H Shares	3RD QTR RES/INT DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8105 HK	Synergy Group Holdings International Limited	INT RES (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8112 HK	Focus Media Network Ltd.	3RD QTR RES/INT DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8115 HK	Shanghai Qingpu Fire-Fighting Equipment Co. Ltd. - H Shares	QUARTER RES/DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8125 HK	Kate China Holdings Ltd.	INT RES (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8140 HK	ICO Group Ltd.	RESULTS/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8145 HK	Telecom Service One Holdings Limited	INT RES (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8181 HK	Kong Shum Union Property Management (Holding) Ltd.	INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8198 HK	MelcoLot Ltd.	3RD QTR RES/INT DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8213 HK	Epicurean and Co., Ltd.	INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8246 HK	Northern New Energy Holdings Limited	QUARTER RES/DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8248 HK	FDB Holdings Limited	3RD QUARTER RES/DIV (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8250 HK	Silk Road Energy Services Group Limited	1ST QUARTER RES/DIV (3-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8311 HK	Perfect Optronics Ltd.	3RD QUARTER RES (9-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8326 HK	JC Group Holdings Ltd.	INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)
2015/11/09	8336 HK	Telecom Digital Holdings Limited	INT RES (6-MTH-ENDDED30/09/15)

Research Coverage List

Sector	Company	Ticker	Rating	Share px (Nov. 6)	12-month TP	% Upside	EPS 2014	EPS 2015E	EPS 2016E	P/E 2014	P/E 2015E	P/E 2016E
Auto & Auto Parts	Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	HK$10.9	HK$12.5	15	1.07	0.86	0.99	8.1	10.1	8.9
Auto & Auto Parts	China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	HK$3.69	HK$5.48	49	0.36	0.42	0.51	8.1	7.0	5.8
Auto & Auto Parts	Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$4.0	HK$4.8	20	0.16	0.28	0.35	19.8	11.4	9.2
Auto & Auto Parts	BAIC Motor	1958 HK	BUY	HK$7.2	HK$12.81	78	0.70	0.81	1.07	8.2	7.1	5.4
Auto & Auto Parts	Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$10.12	HK$28.5	182	2.64	3.10	3.40	3.0	2.6	2.4
Auto & Auto Parts	Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$17.34	HK$20.0	15	1.11	1.09	1.17	12.4	12.7	12.0
Auto & Auto Parts	China Harmony Auto	3836 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$6.19	HK$6.7	8	0.50	0.42	0.45	9.8	11.8	11.1
Auto & Auto Parts	Zhongsheng Group	881 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.81	HK$4.75	25	0.35	0.39	0.48	8.6	7.8	6.4
Oil and Gas	Sinopec Oilfield Service	1033 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$2.55	HK$2.7	6	0.16	-0.16	0.03	12.9	N.A.	70.0
Oil and Gas	China Oilfield Services	2883 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$8.59	HK$8.7	1	0.97	-0.64	0.10	7.0	N.A.	69.4
Oil and Gas	Petrochina	857 HK	BUY	HK$6.05	HK$8.3	37	0.59	0.24	0.23	8.1	20.2	21.2
Oil and Gas	CNOOC	883 HK	BUY	HK$8.98	HK$10.8	20	1.35	0.45	0.66	5.3	16.0	11.0
Property	China Resources Land	1109 HK	BUY	HK$22.05	HK$23.8	8	1.95	2.14	2.54	11.3	10.3	8.7
Property	Yuzhou Property	1628 HK	BUY	HK$1.94	HK$2.4	24	0.36	0.44	0.46	5.4	4.4	4.2
Property	KWG Property	1813 HK	BUY	HK$5.83	HK$5.9	1	1.07	1.20	1.45	5.5	4.9	4.0
Property	Country Garden	2007 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.03	HK$2.7	-11	0.65	0.47	0.58	4.7	6.5	5.2
Property	Agile Property	3383 HK	BUY	HK$4.4	HK$4.8	9	0.36	0.44	0.46	5.4	4.4	4.2
Property	Greentown China	3900 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$7.16	HK$6.0	-16	1.18	1.55	1.58	6.1	4.6	4.5
Property	China Overseas Land	688 HK	BUY	HK$26.6	HK$30.0	13	3.39	3.51	3.86	7.9	7.6	6.9
Property	CH OVS G OCEANS	81 HK	BUY	HK$2.62	HK$3.0	15	0.55	0.56	0.93	4.8	4.7	2.8
Property	Shimao Property	813 HK	BUY	HK$13.58	HK$17.7	30	2.63	2.79	3.08	5.2	4.9	4.4
Property	CIFI Holdings	884 HK	BUY	HK$1.79	HK$2.0	12	0.39	0.44	0.47	4.6	4.1	3.8
Property	China Merchants Land	978 HK	BUY	HK$1.68	HK$2.0	19	0.08	0.09	0.22	16.7	14.9	6.2
Technology, Media & Telecom	China Telecom	728 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.18	HK$4.37	5	0.22	0.24	0.25	15.1	13.9	13.5
Technology, Media & Telecom	China Unicom	762 HK	BUY	HK$10.12	HK$12.21	21	0.51	0.54	0.56	15.7	15.0	14.6
Technology, Media & Telecom	China Mobile	941 HK	BUY	HK$93.3	HK$117.5	26	5.38	5.77	5.90	13.8	12.9	12.8
Technology, Media & Telecom	Wisdom	1661 HK	BUY	HK$4.49	HK$7.0	56	0.17	0.18	0.22	20.9	20.0	16.5
Technology, Media & Telecom	C CHUANGLIAN ED	2371 HK	BUY	HK$0.25	HK$0.79	217	0.01	0.01	0.02	19.8	20.0	10.1
Technology, Media & Telecom	Kingdee	268 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.49	HK$1.4	-60	0.08	0.10	N.A.	34.6	27.9	N.A.
Technology, Media & Telecom	Chinasoft	354 HK	BUY	HK$3.61	HK$3.66	1	0.11	0.12	0.15	26.0	24.1	19.4
Technology, Media & Telecom	Kingsoft	3888 HK	BUY	HK$19.22	HK$27.42	43	0.63	0.33	0.71	24.2	46.6	21.9
Technology, Media & Telecom	Boyaa Interactive	434 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.61	HK$4.88	35	0.38	0.32	0.55	7.5	9.0	5.3
Technology, Media & Telecom	Car Inc	699 HK	BUY	HK$13.94	HK$23.15	66	0.22	0.46	0.86	50.3	24.3	13.1
Technology, Media & Telecom	Tencent	700 HK	BUY	HK$154.5	HK$174.0	13	2.54	3.24	4.20	48.2	38.2	29.7
Hardware Technology	Cowell	1415 HK	BUY	HK$3.76	HK$8.62	129	0.07	0.09	0.12	6.9	5.4	4.0
Hardware Technology	AAC Technologies	2018 HK	BUY	HK$52.9	HK$59.5	12	1.89	2.43	2.89	22.2	17.4	14.8
Hardware Technology	Coolpad	2369 HK	SELL	HK$1.39	HK$0.86	-38	0.12	0.04	0.10	11.6	34.8	13.9
Hardware Technology	Sunny Optical	2382 HK	BUY	HK$17.9	HK$14.51	-19	0.53	0.70	0.88	26.8	20.5	16.4
Hardware Technology	TCL Comm	2618 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$5.81	HK$6.15	6	0.89	0.88	0.92	6.5	6.6	6.3
Hardware Technology	PAX Global	327 HK	BUY	HK$10.3	HK$12.0	17	0.36	0.51	0.60	28.6	20.2	17.2
Hardware Technology	Truly	732 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.85	HK$2.0	8	0.38	0.29	0.34	4.9	6.4	5.4
Hardware Technology	Lenovo Group	992 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$7.55	HK$8.1	7	0.08	0.02	0.10	12.2	48.7	9.7
Textile & Garment	China Lilang	1234 HK	BUY	HK$6.67	HK$8.52	28	0.46	0.54	0.59	11.5	9.9	9.1
Textile & Garment	Xstep International	1368 HK	BUY	HK$4.19	HK$4.88	16	0.22	0.28	0.31	15.1	12.0	10.9
Textile & Garment	Trinity	891 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.08	HK$0.83	-23	0.05	0.00	0.08	21.6	N.A.	13.5
Textile & Garment	I.T	999 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$2.5	HK$2.19	-12	0.24	0.25	0.31	10.4	10.0	8.1
Textile & Garment	Hengan Int'l	1044 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$82.85	HK$75.0	-9	3.20	3.40	3.80	25.9	24.4	21.8
Retail	Sinomax	1418 HK	BUY	HK$0.9	HK$1.43	59	0.12	0.13	0.14	7.5	6.9	6.4
Retail	Chow Tai Fook	1929 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$6.77	HK$7.87	16	0.73	0.55	0.56	9.3	12.3	12.1
Retail	Cosmo Lady	2298 HK	BUY	HK$7.71	HK$9.25	20	0.23	0.32	0.41	26.6	19.3	15.2
Retail	Luk Fook Holdings	590 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$20.65	HK$21.55	4	3.17	2.74	2.69	6.5	7.5	7.7
Retail	Haier Electronics	1169 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$14.9	HK$13.5	-9	0.90	1.03	1.08	13.1	11.6	11.1
Retail	Redstar Macalline	1528 HK	BUY	HK$10.94	HK$12.7	16	0.72	0.73	0.93	12.1	12.0	9.5
Retail	Springland International	1700 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.96	HK$2.5	28	0.26	0.25	0.26	6.0	6.3	6.1
Retail	Intime Retail Group	1833 HK	BUY	HK$9.14	HK$14.8	62	0.36	0.37	0.41	20.1	19.8	18.0
Retail	Gome Electrical	493 HK	BUY	HK$1.5	HK$2.2	47	0.08	0.08	0.09	14.9	15.0	13.5
Retail	JD	JD US	BUY	US$29.7	US$93.0	76	0.26	-1.02	1.31	203.2	N.A.	40.3
Alternative Energy	GCL-Poly Energy	3800 HK	BUY	HK$1.63	HK$1.95	20	0.13	0.13	0.18	12.5	12.5	9.1
Alternative Energy	Xinyi Solar	968 HK	BUY	HK$3.17	HK$4.2	32	0.08	0.17	0.27	39.6	18.7	11.7
Port & Shipping	China Merchants Hldg	144 HK	BUY	HK$26.05	HK$32.3	24	1.59	1.73	1.85	16.4	15.1	14.1
Port & Shipping	Orient Overseas	316 HK	BUY	HK$37.2	HK$55.5	49	0.43	0.65	0.71	11.2	7.4	6.8
Machinery & Equipment	Zoomlion Heavy	1157 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.1	HK$3.22	4	0.08	-0.01	0.02	30.7	N.A.	125.2
Machinery & Equipment	Lonking	3339 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.28	HK$1.23	-4	0.10	0.05	0.06