2023-07-22-莱坊-Melbourne_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_3页_739kb

报告摘要

Melbourne Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q2 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the prime luxury residential sales and rental markets in Melbourne, highlighting key trends, growth drivers, and future forecasts. It is based on data from Knight Frank and Oxford Economics, focusing on the wealth trends, economic performance, and lending environment influencing the real estate sector.

Wealth Trends

Millionaire Population Growth:
- Melbourne's high-net-worth individual (HNWI) population increased by 6.4% in 2022, reaching 420,648 individuals.
- This represents 19.0% of the total Australian HNWI population, up from 17.7% five years ago.
- The HNWI population is projected to grow by 72.6% by the end of 2027, maintaining a 19.2% share of all Australian millionaires.
Ultra-High-Net-Worth (UHNW) Population Growth:
- The UHNW population in Melbourne grew by 5.8% in 2022, reaching 2,685 individuals with net wealth over US$30 million.
- From 2017 to 2022, the UHNW population expanded by 50.8%, outpacing the national growth of 31.3%.
- The UHNW share of the Australian population increased from 13.4% to 15.4%.
- Forecast: The UHNW population is expected to grow by 60.2% over the next five years, faster than the national forecast of 40.9%.

Economic Environment

Victoria's Economic Growth:
- Grew by 5.6% in 2022.
- Forecast to slow to 1.3% in 2023, 1.3% in 2024, and 3.5% in 2025.
Unemployment Rate:
- Melbourne's unemployment rate was 4.0% in March 2023, a 48 bps decrease from the previous year.
Stock Market Performance:
- The S&P/ASX 200 rose by 2.0% in Q1 2023, but fell by 4.5% over the past year.
- Forecast: The stock market is expected to rise by 2.4% in 2023, 4.2% in 2024, and 3.0% in 2025.
Company Profits:
- Grew by 19.2% in 2022, following 5.6% growth in 2021.
- Forecast: Profits are expected to fall by 3% in 2023, 3.8% in 2024, and recover by 2.4% in 2025.
New Private Business Investment:
- Grew by 6.6% in the year to March 2023, surpassing 4.6% growth six months earlier and 3.2% growth a year ago.

Lending Environment

Official Cash Rate:
- Increased by 50 bps over three months to 4.10% as of 6 June 2023.
- Forecast to decrease to an average of 3.94% by the end of 2024.
Mortgage Lending Rates:
- For owner occupiers:
  - 3-year fixed rate: 6.27% (up 3 bps from the previous quarter).
  - Standard variable rate: 8.02% (up 50 bps).
- For investors:
  - 3-year fixed rate: 6.32% (down 1 bp).
  - Standard variable rate: 8.60% (up 50 bps).

Prime Residential Market Performance

Sales Volume:
- 43.9% decline in the March 2023 quarter, with 119 homes sold.
- Annual sales volume was 23.6% lower than a year ago, totaling 736 sales.
Days on Market:
- Increased to 78 days in March 2023, up from 70 days in the previous quarter.
Price Growth:
- 2.9% annual increase in prime residential values by March 2023.
- 1.5% increase in the last quarter.
Rental Growth:
- 3.2% rise in rents for prime residential homes in the March 2023 quarter.
- 9.1% annual increase in rental values.
Gross Rental Yields:
- Increased by 5 bps to 2.89% in Q1 2023.

Prime Residential Forecast (2023–2025)

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023–2025f AVE
Prime Price Performance	9%	4%	-1%	2%	4%	2%
Prime Rental Market	0%	9%	19%	10%	8%	12%

Price Trends:
- Prices are expected to decline by 1% in 2023, recover by 2% in 2024, and rise by 4% in 2025.
Rental Trends:
- Rents are forecast to grow by 19% in 2023, 10% in 2024, and 8% in 2025, with an average annual growth of 12%.

Key Contacts

Michelle Ciesielski – Residential Research
- Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +612 9036 6659
James Thorpe – Residential Site Sales
- Email: james.thorpe@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +613 9604 4625
Sally Edvardsen – Franchise Partnerships
- Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +612 9036 6845
Erin van Tuil – Residential
- Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +612 9036 6699
Luke Hayes – Residential Project Sales
- Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +612 9036 6700
Alistair Carpenter – Valuations
- Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
- Phone: +612 9036 662