2023-07-22-莱坊-Brisbane_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_3页_740kb

Brisbane Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q2 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the prime luxury residential sales and rental markets in Brisbane, focusing on wealth trends, economic performance, and the lending environment. It also includes forecasts for the next three years, highlighting the potential for continued growth in the city's high-net-worth (HNWI) and ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) populations, as well as the housing and rental markets.

Wealth Trends

• HNWI Population Growth:
  Brisbane's HNWI population grew by 4.3% in 2022, reaching 221,025 individuals with net wealth over $1 million.

  • This represents 10.0% of the total Australian HNWI population, up from 9.7% five years ago.
  • The HNWI population is forecast to grow by 80.1% by the end of 2027, which is higher than the national growth rate of 71.1%.
  • Brisbane's share of the Australian HNWI population is expected to reach 10.5% by 2027.

• UHNW Population Growth:
  Brisbane's UHNW population declined by 4.6% in 2022 to 1,215 individuals with net wealth over $30 million.

  • From 2017 to 2022, the UHNW population grew by 37.9%, outperforming the national growth rate of 31.3%.
  • Brisbane's share of the Australian UHNW population increased from 6.6% to 7.0%.
  • The UHNW population is forecast to grow by 83.9% over the next five years, more than double the national forecast of 40.9%.

Economic Environment

• Economic Growth:

  • Queensland recorded 4.4% economic growth in 2022.
  • Brisbane's unemployment rate was 4.3% in 2023, consistent with the previous year.
  • Oxford Economics forecasts:
    • 2023: 2.4% growth
    • 2024: 3.0% growth
    • 2025: 3.1% growth

• Stock Market Performance:

  • The S&P/ASX 200 rose 2.0% in Q1 2023, but the total annual change was -4.5% over the past year.
  • Forecast:
    • 2023: 2.4% increase
    • 2024: 4.2% increase
    • 2025: 3.0% increase

• Company Profits:

  • Company profits grew 19.2% in 2022, following 5.6% growth in 2021.
  • Forecast:
    • 2023: -3.0% decline
    • 2024: -3.8% decline
    • 2025: 2.4% recovery

• New Private Business Investment:

  • Grew by 6.6% in the year to March 2023, surpassing the 4.6% growth six months earlier and the 3.2% growth a year ago.

Lending Environment

• Cash Rate Target:

  • The official cash rate was raised by 50 bps over the past three months to 4.10% as of June 6, 2023.
  • Oxford Economics forecasts a reduction to an average target of 3.94% by the end of 2024.

• Mortgage Rates:

  • In the March 2023 quarter:
    • Owner Occupiers:
      • 3-year fixed rate increased by 3 bps to 6.27%
      • Standard variable rate increased by 50 bps to 8.02%
    • Investors:
      • 3-year fixed rate decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%
      • Standard variable rate increased by 50 bps to 8.60%

Prime Residential Market Performance

Sales and Price Trends

• Sales Volume:

  • March 2023: 146 homes sold, representing a 16.6% quarterly decline.
  • Annual Sales Volume: 700 sales, 14.2% lower than a year ago.
  • Average Days on Market: 57 days in March 2023, up from 51 days in the previous quarter.

• Price Performance:

  • Year-on-Year Price Change (March 2023): -0.4%
  • Last Quarter Price Change: +1.2%

Prime Rental Market Trends

• Rental Growth:

  • Annual Rental Growth (March 2023): 12.7%
  • Quarterly Rental Growth: 3.2%

• Gross Rental Yields:

  • Increased by 5 bps in Q1 2023 to 2.63%.

Forecast Summary

Key Points

• Brisbane is projected to have the strongest growth for ultra-high-net-worth individuals among the four major capital cities over the next five years.
• The prime rental market in Brisbane is showing strong growth, with 12.7% annual rental growth and 2.63% gross rental yields in Q1 2023.
• Prime residential sales declined by 14.2% annually in 2023, but the market remains attractive due to rental demand and wealth growth.
• Mortgage rates have increased for owner occupiers and investors, reflecting tighter lending conditions.
• The economic outlook for Brisbane is positive, with moderate growth expected over the next three years, and the stock market showing recovery potential.