2023-10-02-莱坊-Sydney_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_792kb

报告摘要

Sydney Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)

Core Content

This report provides a quarterly analysis of the Sydney prime luxury residential market, focusing on sales, rental performance, and the wealth trends of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs). It also outlines the economic and lending environment influencing the market.

Wealth Trends

HNWI Population Growth:
- Sydney's HNWI population increased by 7.7% in 2022, reaching 482,946 individuals.
- This represents 21.8% of the total Australian HNWI population, down slightly from 22.7% five years ago.
- The HNWI population is forecast to grow by 51.4% by the end of 2027, which is slower than the national growth rate of 71.1%, but Sydney will still hold a 19.3% share of all Australian millionaires.
UHNWI Population Growth:
- Sydney's UHNWI population grew by 7.8% in 2022, reaching 6,132 individuals with net wealth exceeding US$30 million.
- From 2017 to 2022, the UHNWI population expanded by 23.7%, but this is behind the national growth of 31.3%.
- Sydney's share of the Australian UHNWI population decreased from 37.2% to 35.1%.
- The UHNWI population is expected to grow by 9.0% over the next five years, slower than the national UHNWI growth of 40.9%.

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth:
- New South Wales recorded 1.8% growth in 2022.
- Sydney's unemployment rate was 3.0% in June 2023, a 30 bps decrease from the previous year.
- Oxford Economics forecasts economic growth to decline to 1.0% in 2023, 0.4% in 2024, and recover to 2.5% in 2025.
Stock Market Performance:
- The S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.4% in Q2 2023, with a 9.7% total increase over the past year.
- The stock market is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2023, 2.8% in 2024, and 4.8% in 2025.
Company Profits:
- Company profits grew by 19.3% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2021.
- Annual profits are expected to fall by 0.5% in 2023, 5.8% in 2024, and recover by 2.3% in 2025.
Private Business Investment:
- New private business investment grew by 8.0% in the year to June 2023, up from 7.1% in the previous quarter and 2.2% a year earlier.

Lending Environment

Official Cash Rate:
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the official cash rate at 4.10% as of 5 September 2023.
- Oxford Economics forecasts the rate to decrease to an average of 4.07% by the end of 2024.
Mortgage Rates:
- For owner occupiers, average mortgage lending rates for a 3-year fixed term increased by 5 bps to 6.32%, and standard variable rates rose by 50 bps to 8.52%.
- For investors, 3-year fixed term rates increased by 18 bps to 6.50%, and standard variable rates rose by 50 bps to 9.10%.

Sales & Price Performance

Sales Volume:
- 918 prime residential homes were sold in the June 2023 quarter, a 54% increase compared to the previous quarter.
- Annual sales volume was 3,050, down 33% from a year ago.
Days on Market:
- The average days on market for prime residential homes was 74 days in June 2023, up from 65 days one quarter earlier.
Price Trends:
- Prime residential prices increased by 1.7% over the year ending June 2023 and by 0.4% in the past quarter.
- Knight Frank Research forecasts a 3% price increase in 2023, 5% in 2024, and 7% in 2025.

Rental Market Performance

Rental Yields:
- Gross rental yields for Sydney's prime residential properties increased by 5 bps to 2.30% in Q2 2023.
Rental Growth:
- Rents for prime residential homes rose by 3.2% in the June 2023 quarter and by 13.1% over the past year.
- Knight Frank Research forecasts 18% rental growth in 2023, 12% in 2024, and 7% in 2025.

Sydney Prime Residential Forecast (2021–2025)

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023–2025f AVE
Economic Growth	4.4%	2.2%	1.0%	0.4%	2.5%	1.3%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	3.9%	2.9%	3.6%
Stock Market	17.5%	-1.7%	2.8%	2.8%	4.8%	3.5%
Company Profits	5.3%	19.3%	-0.5%	-5.8%	2.3%	-1.3%

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023–2025f AVE
Prime Price Performance	16%	1%	3%	5%	7%	5%
Prime Rental Market	7%	7%	18%	12%	7%	12%

Key Points

Market Resilience: Despite longer days on market, prime residential sales and prices showed upward trends in Q3 2023.
Wealth Growth: Sydney's HNWI and UHNWI populations are growing, though at a slower pace than the national average.
Economic Outlook: Economic growth in Sydney is expected to moderate, with company profits projected to decline in 2023 and 2024 before recovering in 2025.
Interest Rates: Mortgage rates for both owner occupiers and investors are rising, with variable rates increasing more sharply than fixed rates.
Rental Trends: Rents are expected to grow significantly in the short term, with a forecast of 18% in 2023 and 12% in 2024.

Summary of Key Metrics

Sales Volume (June 2023): 918 homes sold, up 54% from the previous quarter.
Annual Sales Volume (2023): 3,050, down 33% from 2022.
Price Growth (Year to June 2023): 1.7%.
Rental Growth (Year to June 2023): 13.1%.
Forecasted Price Growth (2023–2025): 3%, 5%, 7%.
Forecasted Rental Growth (2023–2025): 18%, 12%, 7%.
Average Cash Rate (2023–2025): 3.6%.
Average Economic Growth (2023–2025): 1.3%.
Average Unemployment Rate (2023–2025): 4.1%.
Average Stock Market Growth (2023–2025): 3.5%.
Average Company Profit Growth (2023–2025): -1.3%.

Contact Information

Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski | +612 9036 6659 | michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Residential Site Sales: Grant Bulpett | +612 9761 1872 | grant.bulpett@au.knightfrank.com
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edwardsen | +612 9036 6845 | sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Residential: Erin van Tuil | +612 9036 6699 | erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes | +612 9036 6700 | luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
Valuations: Alistair Carpenter | +612 9036 662 | al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com