2023-10-02-莱坊-Perth_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_808kb

报告摘要

Perth Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the prime luxury residential market in Perth, focusing on sales, rental performance, and the broader economic and financial environment influencing the market. It highlights how Perth's market is performing compared to other Australian cities and offers forecasts for the next few years.

Wealth Trends

High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs):
- Perth's HNWI population grew by 4.2% in 2022, reaching 199,110 individuals with net wealth over US$1 million.
- This represents 9.0% of the total Australian HNWI population, down slightly from 9.5% five years ago.
- The HNWI population is forecast to grow by 61.3% by the end of 2027, with Perth expected to hold 8.5% of all Australian millionaires.
Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWIs):
- The UHNWI population in Perth declined by 1.8% in 2022, to 1,716 individuals with net wealth over US$30 million.
- From 2017 to 2022, the UHNWI population expanded by 24.7%, although this is lower than the national growth of 31.3%.
- The UHNWI population is forecast to grow by 83.9% over the next five years, which is more than double the national forecast of 40.9%.

Economic Performance

Western Australia's Economy:
- Recorded 3.1% growth in 2022.
- The Perth unemployment rate was 3.5% in June 2023, an increase of 43 bps from the previous year.
- Oxford Economics forecasts economic growth to reach 5.4% by the end of 2023, 3.0% in 2024, and 2.8% in 2025.
Stock Market:
- The S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.4% in Q2 2023, with a total increase of 9.7% over the past year.
- Forecasted growth for the stock market is 2.8% in 2023, 2.8% in 2024, and 4.8% in 2025.
Company Profits:
- Grew by 19.3% in 2022, after 5.3% in 2021.
- Forecasted to fall by 0.5% in 2023, 5.8% in 2024, and recover by 2.3% in 2025.
Private Business Investment:
- Grew by 8.0% in the year to June 2023, higher than the 7.1% growth in the previous quarter and the 2.2% growth a year earlier.

Lending Environment

Official Cash Rate:
- Remained at 4.10% as of 5 September 2023.
- Forecasted to decrease to an average of 4.07% by the end of 2024.
Mortgage Rates:
- For owner occupiers, average mortgage rates increased by 5 bps to 6.32% for a 3-year fixed term and 50 bps to 8.52% for a standard variable loan.
- For investors, rates increased by 18 bps to 6.50% for a 3-year fixed term and 50 bps to 9.10% for a standard variable loan.

Sales & Price Performance

Sales Volume:
- In the June 2023 quarter, 229 prime residential homes were sold, representing a 36% increase compared to the previous quarter.
- Annual sales volume reached 739, a 15% increase from the previous year.
Days on Market:
- The average days on market for prime homes in June 2023 was 72 days, down from 77 days in the previous quarter.
Price Growth:
- Prime residential prices increased by 4.0% over the year to June 2023, and by 3.6% in the past quarter.
- Forecasted price growth for the next three years: 5% in 2023, 4% in 2024, and 4% in 2025, with an average of 4% over the period.

Rental Market Performance

Rental Growth:
- Rents for prime residential properties rose by 0.7% in the June 2023 quarter, and 11.3% over the past year.
- Forecasted rental growth: 13% in 2023, 8% in 2024, and 6% in 2025, with an average of 9% over the period.
Gross Rental Yields:
- Tightened by 10 bps to 1.93% in Q2 2023.

Forecast Summary

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023-2025f AVE
Economic Growth	5.3%	5.4%	3.0%	2.8%	3.5%	3.1%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	3.9%	2.9%	3.6%
Stock Market	17.5%	-1.7%	2.8%	2.8%	4.8%	3.5%
Company Profits	5.3%	19.3%	-0.5%	-5.8%	2.3%	-1.3%
Prime Price Performance	10%	1%	5%	4%	4%	4%
Prime Rental Market	10%	8%	13%	8%	6%	9%

Key Takeaways

Perth's prime luxury residential market outperformed the east coast in terms of price growth and sales volume in Q3 2023.
The HNWI population in Perth is growing, although at a slower rate than the national average.
Economic growth is expected to moderate over the next few years, with a projected unemployment rate increase.
The stock market is forecast to grow steadily, while company profits may face short-term declines.
Mortgage rates are rising, impacting both owner occupiers and investors.
Rental growth is expected to remain strong, with gross rental yields tightening slightly.

Contact Information

Michelle Ciesielski – Residential Research
+612 9036 6659
michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Tony Delich – Residential Site Sales
+618 9225 2528
tony.delich@au.knightfrank.com
Sally Edvardsen – Franchise Partnerships
+612 9036 6845
sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Erin van Tuil – Residential
+612 9036 6699
erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Luke Hayes – Residential Project Sales
+612 9036 700
luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
Alistair Carpenter – Valuations
+612 9036 62
al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com