2023-07-22-莱坊-Sydney_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_3页_745kb

报告摘要

Sydney Prime Residential Insight Summary - Q2 2023

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the Sydney prime luxury residential sales and rental markets as of Q2 2023, based on data from Knight Frank and Oxford Economics. It highlights trends in wealth distribution, economic growth, and the lending environment, alongside projections for the next few years.

Wealth Trends

High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs):
The number of HNWIs in Sydney grew by 7.7% in 2022, reaching 482,946 people with net wealth over US$1 million.
- This population represents 21.8% of the total Australian HNWI population, down from 22.7% five years ago.
- Sydney's HNWI population is expected to grow by 51.4% by the end of 2027, although this is slower than the national growth rate of 71.1%.
- By 2027, Sydney is projected to hold 19.3% of all Australian millionaires.
Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWIs):
The UHNWI population in Sydney increased by 7.8% in 2022, reaching 6,132 people with net wealth over US$30 million.
- From 2017 to 2022, the UHNWI population in Sydney grew by 23.7%, but this is slower than the national growth of 31.3%.
- The share of UHNWIs in Sydney relative to the Australian total has decreased from 37.2% to 35.1%.
- The UHNWI population is forecast to grow by 9.0% over the next five years, significantly behind the national forecast of 40.9%.

The Economy

NSW Economic Growth:
- 2022: 1.8%
- 2023 Forecast: 0.3%
- 2024 Forecast: 0.7%
- 2025 Forecast: 2.6%
Sydney Unemployment Rate:
- 2022: 3.7%
- 2023 Forecast: 3.9%
- 2024 Forecast: 4.2%
- 2025 Forecast: 4.1%
Stock Market Performance (S&P/ASX 200):
- 2023 Q1: 2.0% rise
- Annual Change (2022): -4.5%
- 2023 Forecast: 2.4% rise
- 2024 Forecast: 4.2% rise
- 2025 Forecast: 3.0% rise
Company Profits:
- 2021: 5.6% growth
- 2022: 19.2% growth
- 2023 Forecast: -3.0%
- 2024 Forecast: -3.8%
- 2025 Forecast: 2.4% growth

Lending Environment

Official Cash Rate (RBA):
- June 2023: Raised 50 bps over three months to 4.10%.
- 2024 Forecast: Expected to be reduced to an average of 3.94%.
Mortgage Lending Rates (March 2023):
- Owner Occupiers:
  - 3-year fixed: +3 bps to 6.27%
  - Standard variable: +50 bps to 8.02%
- Investors:
  - 3-year fixed: -1 bps to 6.32%
  - Standard variable: +50 bps to 8.60%

Prime Residential Market Performance

Sales Volume

March 2023 (vs. March 2022):
- 37.8% decrease in sales volume
- 599 prime residential homes sold in the March 2023 quarter
- Annual Sales Volume: Down 37.8% from the previous year

Price Performance

Year to March 2023:
- 0.6% increase in prime residential values
- Past Quarter (Jan–Mar 2023): 1.4% increase
Forecast for 2023–2025:
- Prime Price Performance: Average 3% growth

Rental Market

Rental Growth (Year to March 2023):
- 11.7% increase in prime rental prices
- Quarterly Growth (March 2023): 5.3%
Gross Rental Yields:
- Increased by 8 bps to 2.25% in Q1 2023
Forecast for 2023–2025:
- Prime Rental Market Growth: Average 12% annual increase

Key Forecast Highlights

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023–2025f AVE
Economic Growth	4.4%	2.0%	0.3%	0.7%	2.6%	1.2%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.9%	4.2%	4.1%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	3.9%	2.9%	3.6%
Stock Market	17.5%	-1.7%	2.4%	4.2%	3.0%	3.2%
Company Profits	5.6%	19.2%	-3.0%	-3.8%	2.4%	-1.5%
Prime Price Performance	16%	1%	0%	3%	6%	3%
Prime Rental Market	7%	7%	18%	12%	7%	12%

Key Takeaways

Sydney's prime residential market is experiencing moderate growth in both wealth and property values, albeit slower than national trends.
Rental yields are on an upward trajectory, with annual rental growth reaching 11.7% in 2023.
The economic outlook for Sydney remains positive, with a targeted growth rate of 2.6% by 2025.
Mortgage rates are rising, particularly for standard variable loans, which could impact buyer demand.
The HNWI and UHNWI populations are expected to grow, indicating continued interest in the luxury property market.

Contact Information

Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski | +61 2 9036 6659 | michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Residential Site Sales: Grant Bulpett | +61 2 9761 1872 | grant.bulpett@au.knightfrank.com
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen | +61 2 9036 6845 | sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Residential: Erin van Tuil | +61 2 9036 6699 | erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes | +61 2 9036 6700 | luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
Valuations: Alistair Carpenter | +61 2 9036 662 | al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com