2023-10-02-莱坊-Melbourne_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_811kb
报告摘要
Melbourne Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)
Core Content Overview
This report provides an analysis of the Melbourne prime luxury residential market in Q3 2023, focusing on sales activity, price trends, rental performance, and economic and financial forecasts. It highlights the impact of interest rate changes, wealth trends, and economic conditions on the real estate market.
Wealth Trends
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HNWI Growth: Melbourne's high-net-worth individual (HNWI) population grew by 6.4% in 2022, reaching 420,648 people with net wealth over US$1 million.
- This represents 19.0% of Australia's total HNWI population, up from 17.7% five years ago.
- Melbourne's HNWI population grew by 37.7% since 2017, slightly less than the national 28% growth.
- Forecasted growth for HNW population in Melbourne is 72.6% by 2027, slightly lower than the national 71.1% growth.
-
UHNWI Growth: Melbourne's ultra-high-net-worth individual (UHNWI) population grew by 5.8% in 2022, reaching 2,685 people with net wealth over US$30 million.
- UHNW population in Melbourne expanded by 50.8% since 2017, outpacing the national 31.3% growth.
- Forecasted growth for UHNW population in Melbourne is 60.2% over the next five years, faster than the national 40.9% growth.
Economic and Financial Conditions
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Victoria Economic Growth: Recorded 5.6% in 2022.
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Melbourne Unemployment Rate: Stood at 3.8% in June 2023, up by 57 bps compared to the previous year.
-
Economic Growth Forecast:
- 2023: 1.8%
- 2024: 1.0%
- 2025: 3.6%
- 2023–2025 Average: 2.1%
-
Stock Market Performance:
- S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4% in Q2 2023.
- Total change over the past year: 9.7%.
- Forecast for 2023: 2.8%, 2024: 2.8%, 2025: 4.8%.
- 2023–2025 Average: 3.5%
-
Company Profits:
- Grew by 19.3% in 2022, after 5.3% in 2021.
- Forecast to fall by 0.5% in 2023, 5.8% in 2024, and recover by 2.3% in 2025.
- 2023–2025 Average: -1.3%
-
New Private Business Investment:
- Grew by 8.0% in the year to June 2023.
- Higher than 7.1% in the previous quarter and 2.2% a year earlier.
Lending Environment
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Official Cash Rate (OCR): Remained at 4.10% as of 5 September 2023.
- Forecast to decrease to an average of 4.07% by the end of 2024.
-
Mortgage Rates:
- Owner Occupiers: Average mortgage lending rate for 3-year fixed term increased by 5 bps to 6.32%; variable rate rose by 50 bps to 8.52%.
- Investors: 3-year fixed term increased by 18 bps to 6.50%; variable rate rose by 50 bps to 9.10%.
Sales & Price Performance
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Sales Volume:
- June 2023: Increased by 55% compared to the previous quarter, with 178 prime residential homes sold.
- Annual Sales Volume: 664 in 2023, 31% lower than a year ago.
-
Days on Market:
- Increased to 83 days in June 2023 from 78 days one quarter earlier.
-
Price Trends:
- Year-to-Year: Prime residential prices increased by 2.2% to June 2023.
- Quarter-to-Quarter: Prices fell by 1.1%.
- Forecast:
- 2023: 1%
- 2024: 3%
- 2025: 5%
- 2023–2025 Average: 3%
Rental Market
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Rental Growth:
- Quarter-to-Quarter: Rents rose by 5.2% in the June 2023 quarter.
- Year-to-Year: Rents increased by 15.8% over the past year.
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Gross Rental Yields:
- Increased by 17 bps to 3.06% in Q2 2023.
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Rental Forecast:
- 2023: 19%
- 2024: 10%
- 2025: 8%
- 2023–2025 Average: 12%
Key Drivers Forecast
| Indicator | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2023–2025 AVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth | 4.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% |
| Cash Rate Target | 0.1% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
| Stock Market | 17.5% | -1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| Company Profits | 5.3% | 19.3% | -0.5% | -5.8% | 2.3% | -1.3% |
| Indicator | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2023–2025 AVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prime Price Performance | 9% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| Prime Rental Market | 0% | 9% | 19% | 10% | 8% | 12% |
Summary of Key Insights
- Sales Activity: A pause in rate rises has led to increased sales activity, but prime residential price growth has lagged behind sales volume.
- Wealth Growth: Melbourne continues to see strong growth in both HNWI and UHNWI populations, though at a slightly slower pace than the national average.
- Rental Performance: Rents have shown consistent growth, with a 15.8% annual increase in 2023 and 12% average growth expected over 2023–2025.
- Interest Rates: Lending rates for both owner occupiers and investors have increased, with a forecast for a slight reduction in the OCR by the end of 2024.
- Economic Outlook: Economic growth is expected to slow in the coming years, with a forecast of 1.8% in 2023, 1.0% in 2024, and 3.6% in 2025.
Contact Information
-
Michelle Ciesielski – Residential Site Sales
+612 9036 6659
michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com -
James Thorpe – Residential
+613 9604 4625
james.thorpe@au.knightfrank.com -
Sally Edvardsen – Franchise Partnerships
+612 9036 6845
sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com -
Erin van Tuil – Residential
+612 9036 6699
erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com -
Luke Hayes – Residential Project Sales
+612 9036 700
luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com -
Alistair Carpenter – Valuations
+612 9036 62
al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
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