2023-07-22-莱坊-Gold_Coast_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_3页_772kb

Gold Coast Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q2 2023)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the Gold Coast's prime luxury residential market, focusing on sales, rental performance, and broader economic and wealth trends affecting the region.

Wealth Trends in Australia

• High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs):
  The HNWI population in Australia grew by 4.8% in 2022, reaching 2,214,326 individuals with net wealth over US$1 million.

  • The four major cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth) account for 59.8% of the total HNWI population.
  • The HNWI population has grown by 28.0% since 2017, though this is lower than the global growth of 42.5%.
  • By 2027, the HNWI population is projected to grow by 71.1%, with 42.6% of millionaires expected to be outside the four major cities, up from 40.2% today.

• Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWIs):
  The UHNWI population in Australia grew by 2.1% in 2022, reaching 17,456 individuals with net wealth over US$30 million.

  • Since 2017, the UHNWI population has expanded by 31.1%, slower than the global growth of 44.0%.
  • Over the next five years, the UHNWI population is expected to grow by 40.9%, outperforming the global UHNW growth of 28.5%.
  • The share of UHNWIs outside the four major cities is projected to increase from 32.7% to 37.2% by 2027.

Economic Outlook

• Queensland Economic Growth:

  • 2022: 4.4%
  • 2023 Forecast: 2.4%
  • 2024 Forecast: 3.0%
  • 2025 Forecast: 3.1%

• Gold Coast Unemployment Rate:

  • 2022: 4.0%, which is 240 bps lower than the previous year.
  • 2023 Forecast: 3.9%, with a gradual increase expected in the coming years.

• Stock Market Performance:

  • S&P/ASX 200: Rose 2.0% in Q1 2023, but the total annual change was -4.5%.
  • 2023 Forecast: 2.4% increase.
  • 2024 Forecast: 4.2% increase.
  • 2025 Forecast: 3.0% increase.

• Company Profits:

  • 2022: Grew by 19.2%, following 5.6% growth in 2021.
  • 2023 Forecast: -3.0% decline.
  • 2024 Forecast: -3.8% decline.
  • 2025 Forecast: 2.4% recovery.

• New Private Business Investment:

  • March 2023: Grew by 6.6%, higher than 4.6% in the previous six months and 3.2% a year earlier.

Lending Environment

• Official Cash Rate (OCR):

  • June 2023: Raised to 4.10% by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
  • 2024 Forecast: Projected to decrease to an average of 3.94%.

• Mortgage Lending Rates:

  • Owner Occupiers:
    • 3-year fixed term: Increased by 3 bps to 6.27%.
    • Standard variable loan: Increased by 50 bps to 8.02%.
  • Investors:
    • 3-year fixed term: Decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%.
    • Standard variable loan: Increased by 50 bps to 8.60%.

Prime Residential Market Performance

Sales

• March 2023 Sales Volume:

  • -3.1% quarter-on-quarter, with 217 homes sold.
  • Annual Sales Volume: -14.8% compared to the previous year, with 973 total sales.

• Days on Market:

  • 66 days in March 2023, down from 68 days in the previous quarter.

Price Performance

• Annual Prime Residential Price Change (March 2023):
  • -1.6% over the year, but +0.6% in the past quarter.

Rental Market

• Gross Rental Yields:

  • Increased by 11 bps to 3.39% in Q1 2023.

• Rental Growth:

  • +4.2% in the quarter to March 2023.
  • +19.9% over the past year.

Forecast for Gold Coast Prime Residential Market

• Prime Price Performance: Expected to remain stable at 3% growth annually from 2023 to 2025.
• Prime Rental Market: Projected to grow by 15% annually over the same period.

Key Contacts

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski

  • Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6659

• Residential, Gold Coast: Alison Hedger

  • Email: alison.hedger@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +614 2078 8471

• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen

  • Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6845

• Residential: Erin van Tuil

  • Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 6699

• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes

  • Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 700

• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter

  • Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +612 9036 62

Note: All references to dollars are in Australian Dollars (AUD), unless otherwise stated.