2024-02-02-莱坊-Melbourne_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_3页_760kb

报告摘要

Melbourne Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a quarterly analysis of the prime luxury residential market in Melbourne, focusing on sales, rental trends, wealth dynamics, and the broader economic and lending environment. It highlights the performance of the market in 2023 and offers forecasts for the next few years.

Wealth Trends

High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs):
- The HNWI population in Melbourne grew by 6.4% in 2022, reaching 420,648 individuals.
- This represents 19.0% of the total Australian HNWI population, up from 17.7% five years ago.
- Melbourne's HNWI population grew by 37.7% since 2017, slightly below the national growth of 28%.
Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWIs):
- The UHNWI population in Melbourne increased by 5.8% in 2022, totaling 2,685 individuals.
- From 2017, the UHNWI population expanded by 50.8%, outpacing the national growth of 31.3%.
- Melbourne's share of the Australian UHNWI population grew from 13.4% to 15.4%.
- Forecasted growth for UHNWIs in Melbourne over the next five years is 60.2%, faster than the national forecast of 40.9%.

Economic Trends

Victoria's Economic Growth:
- Recorded 4.6% growth in 2022.
- Forecasted to taper to 1.8% by the end of 2023, then 0.6% in 2024, and 3.1% in 2025.
Unemployment Rate:
- In September 2023, the unemployment rate in Greater Melbourne was 3.7%, up by 14 bps from the previous year.
Stock Market Performance:
- The S&P/ASX 200 fell by 1.9% in Q3 2023, with a total annual change of -8.8%.
- Forecasted to rise by 2.2% by the end of 2023, 1.0% in 2024, and 6.0% in 2025.
Company Profits:
- Fell by 19.3% in 2022 after a 5.3% increase in 2021.
- Forecasted to decline by 0.3% in 2023, 4.2% in 2024, and then grow by 1.7% in 2025.
New Private Business Investment:
- Grew by 8.0% in the year to September 2023, up from 6.8% the previous year.

Lending Environment

Official Cash Rate:
- Set at 4.35% by the RBA in December 2023, up from 3.10% a year earlier.
- Forecasted to average 3.85% by the end of 2025.
Mortgage Rates:
- Average mortgage lending rates to owner occupiers increased by 51 bps to 6.56% for a 3-year fixed term.
- Standard variable loan rates rose by 175 bps to 8.52%.
- For investors, 3-year fixed rates increased by 64 bps to 6.65%, and variable rates rose by 175 bps to 9.10%.

Sales & Price Performance

Sales Volume:
- In September 2023, prime residential sales volume was 22% lower than the previous year.
- The average days on market for luxury homes was 86 days, up from 69 days one year earlier.
Price Trends:
- Prime residential property prices increased by 0.7% in the year to September 2023.
- Prices fell by 0.7% in the last quarter.
- Forecasted price growth for the next three years: 1% in 2023, 3% in 2024, and 5% in 2025.

Rental Market

Rental Growth:
- Annual prime rental growth in Melbourne reached 17.0% in September 2023.
- This is the highest since the series began in September 2007.
Rental Yields:
- Gross rental yields rose by 45 bps to 3.21% in the year ending September 2023.
Forecasted Rental Growth:
- Prime rents are expected to rise by 19% by the end of 2023, 10% in 2024, and 8% in 2025.

Forecast Summary

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
Victoria Economic Growth	4.7%	4.6%	1.8%	0.6%	3.1%	1.8%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.9%	4.6%	3.9%	4.1%
Stock Market	18%	-2%	2%	1%	6%	3%
Company Profits	5%	19%	0%	-4%	2%	-1%
Price Performance	9%	4%	1%	3%	5%	3%
Rental Market	0%	9%	19%	10%	8%	12%

Key Drivers

Economic Growth: Expected to slow down in 2023 and 2024 but rebound in 2025.
Unemployment Rate: Projected to rise slightly in 2024 and 2025.
Cash Rate: Likely to decrease to 3.85% by 2025.
Stock Market: Expected to show mixed performance, with growth in 2025.
Company Profits: Projected to decline in 2023 and 2024, with a modest recovery in 2025.

Contact Information

Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski – +612 9036 6659 – michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Residential Site Sales: James Thorpe – +614 1451 0071 – james.thorpe@au.knightfrank.com
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen – +612 9036 6845 – sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Residential: Erin van Tuil – +614 0932 5700 – erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Valuations: Chris Hill – +614 3880 7249 – chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com