期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Spring1981_40页_967kb

NBER Program in International Studies Summary

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has a Program in International Studies that focuses on three main areas of research: exchange rates, comparative macroeconomics, and long-run structural changes in the world economy. These areas are interconnected and explore the macroeconomic implications of international economic phenomena.

Main Research Areas

1. Exchange Rates

• The program examines short-run determinants of nominal exchange rates, long-run movements in real exchange rates, and the role of exchange rates in macroeconomic policy.
• Research includes:
  • "Oil, Disinflation, and Export Competitiveness: A Model of the Dutch Disease" by Willem H. Buiter and Douglas D. Purvis (Working Paper No. 592).
  • "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation" by Maurice Obstfeld (Working Paper No. 599).
• Two conferences are planned:
  • January 1982 for technical discussions.
  • Summer 1982 for presenting completed work to those interested in exchange rate policy.

2. Comparative Macroeconomics

• Focuses on how different economic structures among industrialized economies affect:
  • Reactions to external shocks (e.g., rising oil prices).
  • Transmission of disturbances across countries via exchange rate fluctuations.
• Research includes:
  • "Oil and the Dollar" by Paul Krugman (Working Paper No. 554).
  • "Energy and Growth under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Simulation Study" by Jeffrey Sachs (Working Paper No. 582).
• A group led by J. David Richardson is working on a unified project in this area.

3. Long-Run Structural Changes in the World Economy

• Examines trends in trade, investment, and international manufacturing location.
• Key research includes:
  • "Trends in U.S. Trade and Investment since World War II" by William H. Branson.
  • "The Location of Overseas Production and Production for Export by U.S. Multinational Firms" by Irving B. Kravis and Robert E. Lipsey (Working Paper No. 482).
• The rise of new industrial centers and their impact on U.S. industry are central topics.

Research Summaries

Government Purchases, Public Debt, and Taxes

• Robert J. Barro discusses the macroeconomic effects of government purchases, public debt, and taxes.
• Key findings:
  • Permanent increases in government purchases lead to a decline in disposable real income and little net impact on aggregate demand.
  • Temporary increases in government purchases raise aggregate output and real interest rates, though with a dampener effect.
  • The tax-smoothing theory suggests that future tax rate changes are unpredictable based on current information.
  • Empirical analysis shows that the U.S. tax ratios have little drift, and tax rate changes are insignificant relative to their own history.
  • Deficit financing is influenced by the timing of tax collections and the expected inflation rate.

The Costs of Inflation

• Stanley Fischer outlines three major sources of inflationary costs:
  1. Cost of holding money due to inflation.
  2. Failure of institutions (especially the tax system) to adapt to inflation.
  3. Empirical links between inflation, uncertainty, and variability in relative prices.
• Key points:
  • Inflation acts as a tax on currency holdings, and the excess burden of raising revenue through inflation is significant.
  • The current tax system leads to higher effective tax rates on capital returns due to historical cost depreciation and inventory accounting choices.
  • The welfare cost of a 10% inflation rate is estimated at 0.7% of GNP, or $20 billion per year.
  • Bracket creep is a well-known distortion where effective tax rates rise with inflation, reducing labor supply.
  • Institutional adjustments (e.g., tax bracket reforms) can reduce inflation costs.

Key Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
• The officers and directors include prominent economists and policy makers.
• The Reporter is an informational publication, not reviewed by the Board of Directors, and is not copyrighted.
• Working Papers are a key output of the NBER, with recent studies on exchange rates, government purchases, and inflation costs.
• The 1980 recession is analyzed in a section of the Reporter, written by Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey Moore.

Conferences and Events

• A two-part conference on exchange rates is being organized by John Bilson and Richard Marston.
• The 1981 Summer Institute includes comparative macroeconomics as a major topic.
• The Conference Calendar lists upcoming events, and the Reporter includes news of NBER conferences.

Conclusion

The NBER's Program in International Studies addresses a broad range of macroeconomic and international economic issues. The research highlights the interconnectedness of exchange rates, government policy, and inflation, emphasizing the long-run structural changes in the global economy. The program also underscores the importance of institutional adaptation in mitigating the economic costs of inflation and the role of tax smoothing in shaping fiscal policy.