期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1988_52页_1mb

报告摘要

NBER Reporter Summary - Fall 1988

Core Content

The NBER Reporter Fall 1988 edition provides an overview of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) activities, with a focus on the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth (CRIW), its fifty-year legacy, and its ongoing research initiatives. It highlights several research papers and discussions on economic measurement, including capital, saving, productivity, and tax burden, as well as the development of new data systems and methodologies.

Main Points and Key Information

1. CRIW Overview

The Conference on Research in Income and Wealth (CRIW) was established over 50 years ago and remains a key program within the NBER.
It serves as a forum for interaction between government and academic economists, focusing on improving economic measurement in areas like income, wealth, productivity, and employment.
The conference publishes studies in a special series, and in 1988, it celebrated its fiftieth anniversary with a conference in Washington, D.C.
Key organizers included Ernst R. Berndt, W. Erwin Diewert, and Jack E. Triplett, who honored participants from the first conference in the 1930s.

2. Upcoming Conference Volumes

1989 will see the publication of two volumes:
- Productivity Growth in Japan and the United States, edited by Charles R. Hulten
- The Measurement of Saving, Investment, and Wealth, edited by Robert E. Lipsey and Helen Stone Tice
1990 will feature a conference on measuring output and productivity in the service sector, organized by Zvi Griliches and Ernst R. Berndt.

3. Research Summaries

Prices and Exchange Rates

Alberto Giovannini discusses the evolution of exchange rate regimes from fixed (post-WWII to 1972) to flexible (since 1972).
The U.S. experienced sharp inflation and dollar depreciation in the 1970s and 1980s, linked to the shift to flexible exchange rates.
Exchange rates and domestic prices behave differently, with exchange rates being more volatile.
Monetary policy can influence international competitiveness, but its effects are often transitory.
Giovannini and Rotemberg found that monetary shocks have limited long-term effects on real exchange rates, and the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation is estimated at 10–35% for West Germany.

Business Cycles between the Two World Wars

Christina D. Romer explores U.S. business cycles from 1919 to 1939, highlighting the impact of economic policies and external shocks.
She emphasizes the importance of microdata in understanding labor markets and the role of the Federal Reserve in shaping economic outcomes.

Economic Outlook Survey

This section provides a quarterly assessment of the U.S. economy, focusing on business cycle indicators, inflation, and growth prospects.

NBER Profiles

Lists current NBER officers and directors, including:
- Chairman: Richard N. Rosett
- President and CEO: Martin Feldstein
- Directors at Large: John Herron Biggs, Andrew Brimmer, Carl F. Christ, etc.
- Directors by University Appointment: Charles H. Berry (Princeton), William Brainard (Yale), James Duesenberry (Harvard), etc.
- Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations: Richard A. Easterlin (Economic History Association), Bruce Gardner (American Agricultural Economics Association), etc.

Conferences and Conference Calendar

Details upcoming NBER conferences and their focus areas, such as:
- International flows of goods and capital (fall 1989)
- Measuring output and productivity in the service sector (spring 1990)

NBER Books and Working Papers

Highlights recent NBER publications and working papers that contribute to economic research and policy analysis.

Key Research Papers and Topics

1. Capital Measurement

Charles R. Hulten reviews the perpetual inventory method and discusses aggregation, hedonic price techniques, and new measurement theories.
He recommends a national wealth benchmark and the integration of income and wealth accounts.

2. Saving and Wealth

Michael J. Boskin compares alternative measures of saving with the traditional NIPA estimates.
He notes that government capital and durable adjustments significantly increase net national saving estimates, from 4.7% to 8.8% in 1985.
New estimates based on Federal Reserve Flow of Funds show much higher values (e.g., 11.5% in 1986).

3. Hedonic Price Indexes

Zvi Griliches discusses the origin of hedonic price indexes and their implications for productivity measurement.
He cautions against interpreting the slowdown in productivity as a sign of declining technological potential.

4. Structures Price Deflation

Paul J. Pieper reviews the methods of deflating structures prices and identifies major problems with current deflators.
He argues that no single method is best, and the choice depends on the type of construction.

5. Labor Economics and Data Collection

Daniel S. Hamermesh calls for microdata and panel data to improve understanding of labor supply and demand.
He outlines a project involving monthly panel data on firms and workers to study labor market dynamics.

6. Environmental Policy and Data Needs

Clifford S. Russell and V. Kerry Smith argue that environmental regulation requires data on environmental quality and policy responses.
They highlight the travel cost method in estimating demand for recreation sites.

7. Tax Burden Measurement

Barbara K. Atrostic and James R. Nunns discuss four categories of tax burden measurement.
They emphasize the importance of microdata and general equilibrium models in shaping tax policy.

8. Longitudinal Research Database (LRD)

The LRD is a microdatabase combining data from the Census of Manufactures and the Annual Survey of Manufactures.
It supports research on mergers, high-tech trade, plant-level productivity, and firm entry/exit.

9. Service Indexes

Zoltan Kenessey proposes a service index similar to the Industrial Production (IP) index, benchmarked to NIPA aggregates.
The experimental results suggest that service indexes can be cost-effective and practical.

10. Survey of Consumer Finances

Avery, Elliehausen, and Kennickell analyze wealth and saving behavior using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances.
They emphasize the importance of panel data for understanding wealth changes and saving behavior.

11. Luxembourg Income Study (LIS)

The LIS combines microdata from 10 industrialized countries, including the U.S., Canada, and the U.K..
It supports comparative research on child poverty, tax policy, and equivalence scales.

12. Social Policy Simulation Database

Michael C. Wolfson and colleagues describe a prototype database integrating administrative and survey data for social policy analysis.
Techniques like categorical matching and stochastic imputation are used to protect confidentiality.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter Fall 1988 edition reflects the ongoing commitment of the NBER to economic measurement and policy analysis. It highlights significant developments in capital, saving, productivity, and tax burden measurement, as well as the importance of data integration in understanding labor, environmental, and service sector dynamics. The CRIW's 50th anniversary underscores its long-standing role in fostering collaboration and innovation in economic research.

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