期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Winter1982_36页_886kb

NBER International Studies Program Summary (Winter 1982/3)

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)'s Program in International Studies during the winter of 1982/3 focused on understanding the interaction of the U.S. economy with its international environment. The program encompassed two major areas: exchange rates and international macroeconomics, and international trade and structural adjustment. The goal was to improve empirical and analytical understanding to support better decision-making in trade and macroeconomic policy, rather than to make policy recommendations.

Main Research Areas

Exchange Rates

• Exchange Rate Theory and Practice: A Conference on Exchange Rate Theory and Practice was held in Bellagio, Italy, in January 1982, organized by John F. Bilson and Richard C. Marston. It reviewed research on exchange rates since the early 1970s.
• Exchange Rate Regimes and Policy Interdependence: A joint seminar with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in August 1982 explored the implications of exchange rate regimes and policy interdependence.
• Exchange Rate Unions and Capital Movements: Research on exchange rate unions, especially the European Monetary System (EMS), and capital movements was conducted by Bilson, Marston, and Obstfeld.
• International Coordination of Macroeconomic Policy: Richard Marston is organizing a group research project on the international effects of domestic policies and the coordination of these policies across countries.

International Trade and Structural Adjustment

• U.S. Trade Policy, Competitiveness, and Capital Mobility: A multiyear NSF-funded project led by J. David Richardson and William H. Branson studies the trends in U.S. trade and investment, as well as the consequences of alternative policy choices.
• Trade and Technology: Research on the interaction of technology, imperfect information, and trade, particularly with Japan, is being conducted by Paul R. Krugman, Gene M. Grossman, and Jonathan Eaton.
• Foreign Direct Investment: Research Associates Robert E. Lipsey and Irving B. Kravis continue their empirical studies on U.S. foreign direct investment.
• Trade Relations Project: Anne O. Krueger initiated an NBER project on American trade relations, which was later taken over by Robert E. Baldwin after Krueger moved to the World Bank.

Key Researchers and Projects

• Jeffrey Sachs: Studies structural adjustment in the global steel industry and the effects of trade and investment policies.
• Paul R. Krugman: Focuses on the impact of commercial policy on returns, investment, and comparative advantage.
• Gene M. Grossman and Jonathan Eaton: Work on the microeconomic aspects of direct foreign investment and the application of game-theoretic methods to trade problems.
• Robert E. Lipsey and Irving B. Kravis: Continue their empirical studies on U.S. foreign direct investment.
• Richard C. Marston: Leads research on exchange rates, exchange rate unions, and international policy coordination.
• John F. Bilson and Maurice Obstfeld: Analyze capital movements and exchange rates.
• Frederic S. Mishkin: Develops a rational expectations approach to macroeconometrics, focusing on the policy ineffectiveness proposition and the efficient markets hypothesis.

Research Summary

A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics

• Rational Expectations Hypothesis: This hypothesis states that expectations are optimal forecasts using all available information. It challenges the use of traditional large-scale macroeconometric models for policy analysis.
• Cross-Equation Restrictions: The hypothesis introduces restrictions that allow for more powerful statistical tests and better interpretation of empirical results.
• Empirical Applications: The approach is applied to various macroeconomic topics, including consumption behavior, market forecasts, and the relationship between monetary policy and interest rates.
• Testing Policy Ineffectiveness: Research using this methodology suggests that anticipated monetary policy does matter, contradicting the neutrality hypothesis. This implies that anticipated changes in aggregate demand policy do influence output and employment.

Key Findings

• Market Forecasts: The Goldsmith-Nagan survey results suggest that market forecasts may not be rational, but the Livingston price expectation data remain inconclusive.
• Monetary Policy and Interest Rates: Empirical evidence using efficient markets and rational expectations models shows that unanticipated increases in the money stock do not lead to a decline in interest rates.
• Policy Ineffectiveness: The policy ineffectiveness proposition is rejected, indicating that anticipated policy changes do have real effects on the economy.

Other Projects

• Global Implications of Asian NICs: Colin Bradford is organizing a conference on the impact of the growth of the "newly industrializing developing countries" (NICs) on industrialized nations.
• International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISOM): A joint venture with the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) in Paris, bringing together American and European researchers to study common macroeconomic issues.
• Productivity and Industrial Change: Research on structural adjustment in the global steel industry is conducted by Jeffrey Sachs and Barry Eichengreen.

Conclusion

The NBER International Studies Program has made significant strides in understanding the interactions between the U.S. economy and its international environment. The program emphasizes empirical and theoretical research on exchange rates, trade policy, and macroeconomic coordination. The development of rational expectations models has been central to this effort, providing a framework for analyzing economic behavior and policy effectiveness. The findings challenge traditional views on monetary policy and highlight the importance of anticipated policy in shaping economic outcomes.