期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1989_1_34页_941kb

NBER International Studies Program Report - Fall 1989

Core Content Overview

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Program in International Studies has focused on several key areas in international economics, including trade and competitiveness, strategic behavior and trade, international macroeconomics, international finance, developing country debt, and stabilization programs in developing countries. The report also touches on the NBER project on international taxation and international seminars.

Main Research Areas

1. Trade and Competitiveness

• Focus: Analysis of U.S. trade and competitiveness, adjustment to global trade changes, and the impact of competitive pressure.
• Key Topics:
  • Growth and trade with differentiated products.
  • Hysteresis in trade fluctuations.
  • Role of multinational corporations (MNCs) in trade.
  • Growth of trade in services.
  • Effects of trade policy on stock prices and capital costs.
• Notable Researchers:
  • Gene M. Grossman and Elhanan Helpman: Studied the impact of trade on innovation and growth.
  • Nancy P. Marion: Developed a model where open capital markets may not always increase growth.
  • Richard E. Baldwin: Pioneered research on hysteresis in U.S. trade and organized conferences on trade policies.
  • Robert E. Lipsey, Rachel McCulloch, Irving B. Kravis, and Magnus Blomström: Continued work on MNCs and international investment.
  • Richard C. Marston: Analyzed Japanese manufacturing responses to exchange rate changes.

2. Strategic Behavior and Trade

• Focus: Strategic interactions between governments and private actors in trade policy and market structure.
• Key Topics:
  • Trade policy implications of domestic dependence on imports.
  • Costs of switching between supply sources and horizontal mergers.
  • Role of GATT in coordinating trade policies.
  • Effects of learning by doing on trade policy.
• Notable Researchers:
  • Paul R. Krugman and Elhanan Helpman: Authored a book on trade policy and market structure.
  • Barbara J. Spencer: Examined trade policy and vertical foreclosures.
  • Carl Shapiro: Analyzed switching costs and competition.
  • Anne O. Krueger: Found that government intervention is more common in import-competing industries.

3. International Macroeconomics

• Focus: Fiscal policy, public debt, and international cooperation.
• Key Topics:
  • Role of fiscal policies in the world economy.
  • Effects of fiscal policy on exchange rates and international imbalances.
  • Public debt sustainability under fixed exchange rates.
  • Obstacles to international macroeconomic policy coordination.
• Notable Researchers:
  • Jacob A. Frenkel and Assaf Razin: Completed a major project on fiscal policies and the world economy.
  • Susan M. Collins: Studied the European Monetary System (EMS) and its impact on inflation.
  • Francesco Giavazzi and Alberto Giovannini: Authored a book on the EMS.
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel: Analyzed the case for international nominal GNP targeting.

4. International Finance

• Focus: Asset pricing, exchange rate determination, and market efficiency.
• Key Topics:
  • Uncertainty and its impact on asset prices and exchange rates.
  • Excess volatility in exchange rates and stock markets.
  • Effects of exchange rate volatility on investment.
  • Innovation in financial markets and hedging techniques.
• Notable Researchers:
  • Robert J. Hodrick, Lars E. O. Svensson, Takatoshi Ito, and Karen K. Lewis: Continued research on international asset pricing and exchange rate dynamics.
  • Frankel, Charles M. Engel, Kenneth A. Froot, and Vittorio U. Grilli: Studied market efficiency and excess volatility in exchange rates.
  • Richard M. Levich: Analyzed financial market harmonization and hedging in the Euromarkets.

5. Developing Country Debt

• Focus: Debt problems in developing countries and their implications for economic policy.
• Key Topics:
  • Default risk and the strategic interaction between borrowers and lenders.
  • Debt overhang and incentives for debt relief.
  • Role of the IMF and structural adjustment policies.
• Notable Researchers:
  • Jeffrey D. Sachs: Led a major project on developing country debt with four volumes of research.
  • Raquel Fernandez, Jonathan Eaton, and Joshua Aizenman: Analyzed debt renegotiation, credibility, and country risk.
  • Barry J. Eichengreen and Lawrence H. Goulder: Developed models to study the impact of taxation on international competitiveness.

6. Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries

• Focus: Determinants of stabilization and structural adjustment outcomes.
• Key Topics:
  • Role of credibility in stabilizing economies.
  • Effects of openness on adjustment program success.
  • Importance of the financial sector in economic adjustment.
• Notable Researchers:
  • Rudiger Dornbusch and Sebastian Edwards: Studied stabilization outcomes and the role of credibility.
  • Michael Bruno and Dani Rodrik: Analyzed the role of credibility in policy reform and its effects on investment.

Key Information

• The single European market of 1992 introduced new research questions in international economics.
• Hysteresis in trade refers to the phenomenon where foreign firms enter the U.S. market with a higher exchange rate and remain even when the rate decreases.
• Multinational corporations increase competition in host countries and influence trade dynamics.
• Exchange rate volatility can reduce investment in the U.S. and has been studied in relation to market efficiency and policy effects.
• Debt overhang occurs when the threat of future taxes deters investment, and debt relief may be necessary to resolve this issue.
• Credibility in macroeconomic policy is crucial for successful stabilization and structural adjustment programs.
• The European Monetary System (EMS) and its implications for inflation and fiscal policy have been a major area of study.

NBER Directors and Structure

• Directors at Large: Includes prominent economists like John Herron Biggs, Andrew Brimmer, Carl F. Christ, and others.
• Directors by University Appointment: Includes scholars from institutions such as Columbia, Yale, and MIT.
• Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations: Includes members from the Economic History Association, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, and others.
• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920, focused on objective quantitative analysis of the American economy.

Additional Notes

• The NBER Reporter is not copyrighted and can be freely reproduced with proper attribution.
• Contributions to the NBER are tax-deductible.
• The report highlights recent working papers and conferences related to international economics, including the "Trade Policies for International Competitiveness" conference organized by Robert C. Feenstra.