期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Spring1985_43页_924kb

NBER Reporter Summary: The Government Budget and the Private Economy

Core Content

This report from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), published in the Spring 1985 issue, outlines a major study on the impact of the government budget on the private economy. The study encompasses various aspects of taxation, government spending, public sector payrolls, state and local budgets, and government deficits. It highlights the diverse research conducted by NBER economists to understand how fiscal policies influence economic behavior, investment decisions, and labor markets.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. The Impact of Taxation

• Household Saving: Several researchers, including Louis Dicks-Mireaux, Mervyn A. King, Lawrence H. Summers, and others, have examined how taxation affects household saving. Their findings suggest that tax policies can create disincentives for saving, particularly through income and capital gains taxes.

• Business Saving: Auerbach and others have analyzed the effect of tax incentives on business saving, focusing on corporate taxes and dividend taxation. They found that tax policies can influence the allocation of capital and investment decisions.

• Investment Decisions: Research by Summers and Poterba, among others, shows that taxes can impact investment decisions by affecting the valuation of dividends and the cost of capital. Corporate tax policies also influence the choice between debt and equity financing.

• Foreign Investment: The tax system can affect the incentives for foreign investment. Studies by David G. Hartman, Daniel J. Frisch, and others indicate that domestic tax policies may influence the location of U.S. investment abroad.

• Labor Supply and Job Choice: Taxation has significant effects on labor supply and job choice. Hausman, Hamermesh, and Rosen have explored how tax policies influence individuals' decisions to work, retire, or change jobs.

• Charitable Contributions: Clotfelter and Feenberg have analyzed how various tax policies affect charitable giving, particularly through the tax treatment of donations.

2. Government Spending and Transfer Programs

• Social Security: Research by Fields, Mitchell, Gordon, and others has shown that Social Security benefits influence retirement decisions, savings behavior, and consumption patterns among the elderly. Studies also suggest that these programs may affect bequests and the economic status of retirees.

• Unemployment Insurance: The impact of unemployment insurance on the duration of unemployment and the measured unemployment rate has been studied. It appears that such programs may affect labor market transitions and reservation wages.

• Housing Subsidies: Rosen, Venti, and Wise have investigated how government housing subsidies influence individual housing decisions, efficiency, and equity in the housing market.

• Health Care Programs: Researchers such as Goldman, Grossman, and Fuchs have analyzed the effects of government health programs on the health of the poor and the elderly.

• Food Stamps and Education: The food stamp program's impact on income and consumption has been studied, as well as the effect of reduced government scholarships on college attendance.

3. Public Sector Payrolls

• Government spending on public sector employees is a significant component of the budget. Researchers like Leonard, Brown, Freeman, and Zax have studied retirement programs, military enlistments, and wage structures in public sector jobs, particularly in municipal and educational sectors.

4. State and Local Government Budgets

• While the study primarily focuses on federal budgets, it also addresses the influence of federal policies on state and local governments. Research includes the analysis of property tax incidence, the costs of tax compliance, and the effects of federal subsidies on state and local spending.

5. Government Deficits

• The report discusses the effects of federal budget deficits on interest rates, private investment, and inflation. Researchers like Friedman, Barro, and McCallum have explored the implications of deficits on the economy, including the possibility of crowding out private investment and the role of expectations in shaping economic outcomes.

Key Researchers and Their Contributions

• Geoffrey Carliner: Project director, overseeing the overall study on government budget impacts.
• Edward P. Lazear: Focused on pensions and their role in labor market incentives.
• Lawrence H. Summers: Analyzed the effects of taxation on investment and savings.
• Alan J. Auerbach: Studied corporate taxation, debt incentives, and the impact of tax policy on investment.
• Jerry A. Hausman: Examined labor supply and job choice in relation to tax policies.
• Paul McCracken: Investigated the economic effects of unemployment insurance.
• Harvey Rosen: Analyzed the impact of housing subsidies and Social Security on economic behavior.
• Martin Feldstein: Explored the relationship between Social Security and economic policy.

Conclusion

The NBER study highlights the complex interplay between government fiscal policies and private economic behavior. It emphasizes the importance of understanding how taxation and spending influence saving, investment, labor supply, and the broader economy. The research provides empirical evidence and theoretical insights into the role of government in shaping economic outcomes.