期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1981_40页_1mb

NBER Program in Economic Fluctuations Summary (Fall 1981)

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) published a Fall 1981 report on its Program in Economic Fluctuations, highlighting ongoing research into the causes and effects of inflation, economic fluctuations, and related macroeconomic issues. The program involves 37 economists from 12 universities and has produced over 60 NBER Working Papers and 12 nontechnical papers on inflation, with additional contributions from related programs in Financial Markets, Monetary Economics, International Studies, Labor Studies, and Capital Formation.

The NBER committee is responsible for identifying cyclical peaks and troughs in the U.S. economy. In 1980, they declared January 1980 as a peak and July 1980 as a trough. In late 1981, they were considering whether a peak had occurred that year, following their tradition of waiting for all data to be available before making any announcement.

Main Research Topics and Findings

Inflation and Its Effects

• Robert J. Barro discusses the correlation between money growth and inflation over long periods, noting that short-term divergence is influenced by changes in inflationary expectations and the unpredictability of long-term interest rates.
• Alan Blinder analyzes the causes of double-digit inflation in the 1970s, attributing it to food and energy shocks, and suggests that similar analyses should be applied to future inflation episodes.
• Stanley Fischer explores how inflation affects financial instruments, especially labor contracts and mortgage financing. He highlights the importance of indexation in reducing the impact of inflation.
• John Shoven investigates the effect of inflation on corporate profits, indicating that reported profits since 1973 have underestimated real current-cost income by about $160 billion.
• Jacob Frenkel discusses the role of the foreign exchange market and suggests that a commodity standard based on non-gold items could provide stable purchasing power.

Inflation and the Economy

• Douglas Hibbs notes that public concern about inflation and unemployment has been high since the Vietnam War, with inflation being more of a concern when rates are above 5-6% annually.
• Robert J. Gordon examines the consequences of ending inflation, finding that it often leads to decreased output and increased unemployment, with some exceptions like France and Japan.
• Martin Feldstein explores the interaction between inflation and capital taxation, showing that inflation raises effective tax rates on capital and reduces real returns, affecting investment and monetary policy.

Other Research Areas

• Ben Bernanke and Robert Gordon analyze the slow productivity growth in the past decade.
• Jerry Green, Herschel Grossman, and Robert Hall investigate employment and unemployment dynamics, including the impact of employment arrangements on macroeconomic performance.
• Frederic Mishkin focuses on the role of interest rates in the macroeconomy.
• Victor Zarnowitz continues his research on the economics of the business cycle.

Key Contributions

• The program has produced significant research on the causes and consequences of inflation, including the role of supply shocks, the impact on financial markets, and the effects on capital taxation and investment.
• Research on economic fluctuations includes studies on inventory investment, plant and equipment investment, and consumption behavior.
• The program has also explored the implications of inflation on public and private pension plans, suggesting that indexation is necessary but costly.
• The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, organized by Robert Gordon and Georges de Menil, has improved communication between macroeconomists in the U.S. and Europe.

Conclusion

The NBER Program in Economic Fluctuations has been actively engaged in researching the complex interactions between inflation, economic activity, and policy. The findings suggest that inflation has significant effects on financial markets, corporate profits, and public perception. The program emphasizes the need for indexation and adaptive policies to mitigate the negative impacts of inflation on the economy.

Key Figures and Contributions

• Zvi Bodie: Focuses on hedging against inflation, especially for retirement income, and assesses the feasibility of purchasing power annuities.
• Robert J. Barro: Analyzes the long-term correlation between money growth and inflation, and the role of expectations.
• Alan Blinder: Investigates the causes of double-digit inflation in the 1970s, emphasizing the role of supply shocks.
• Stanley Fischer: Discusses financial adjustments to inflation, including indexation and new mortgage instruments.
• John Shoven: Highlights the underreporting of corporate profits due to inflation.
• Jacob Frenkel: Suggests a commodity standard for the dollar to stabilize purchasing power.
• Douglas Hibbs: Notes the public's heightened concern about inflation and unemployment.
• Martin Feldstein: Studies the effects of inflation on capital taxation and investment.
• Robert J. Gordon: Examines historical episodes of inflation and its impact on output and employment.
• Ben Bernanke: Analyzes the sources of labor productivity variation.
• Jerry Green, Herschel Grossman, and Robert Hall: Investigate employment and unemployment dynamics.
• Frederic Mishkin: Studies the role of interest rates in the macroeconomy.
• Victor Zarnowitz: Researches the economics of the business cycle.

References

• Zvi Bodie: "Hedging Against Inflation"
• Robert J. Barro: "U.S. Inflation and the Choice of Monetary Standard"
• Alan Blinder: "The Anatomy of Double-Digit Inflation in the Seventies"
• Stanley Fischer: "Adapting to Inflation in the U.S. Economy"
• John Shoven: "Inflation, Corporate Profits, and the Rate of Return to Capital"
• Jacob Frenkel: "U.S. Inflation and the Dollar"
• Douglas Hibbs: "Public Concern about Inflation and Unemployment in the United States"
• Martin Feldstein: "Inflation, Capital Taxation, and Monetary Policy"
• Robert J. Gordon: "The 'End-of-Expansion' Phenomenon in Short-Run Productivity Behavior"
• Ben Bernanke: "The Sources of Labor Productivity Variation in U.S. Manufacturing, 1947-80"
• Jerry Green, Herschel Grossman, and Robert Hall: Various studies on employment and unemployment.
• Frederic Mishkin: "Are Market Forecasts Rational?" and others.
• Victor Zarnowitz: "Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures"

Additional Notes

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920.
• The organization's directors include notable economists and non-economists.
• The program has produced over 60 working papers and 12 nontechnical papers on inflation, with more to be published in 1985.