期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Spring1979_32页_761kb

NBER Reporter Summary - Spring 1979

Core Content

The NBER Program in International Studies focuses on empirical research related to international economic policy issues, particularly comparative macroeconomics and exchange rate policy. The program aims to integrate theoretical, empirical, and applied research to provide insights that are accessible to policy makers. The spring 1979 issue of the NBER Reporter highlights key research areas and findings from this program.

Main Research Areas

1. Comparative Macroeconomics

• Objective: To understand the long-term growth and recovery prospects of OECD countries.
• Key Issues:
  • Persistent recessions: The program investigates why recessions have lasted so long, focusing on real wage rigidity, investment demand weakness, and structural changes.
  • Inflation transmission: Michael Darby and Anna Schwartz examine how inflation spreads through the global monetary system and the stability of the world monetary system.
  • Productivity growth: Research by Irving Kravis and Robert Lipsey explores the causes of slower productivity growth, changes in capital-output ratios, and the role of multinational firms in the world economy.
  • Capital allocation: The study looks into how international capital movements affect U.S. capital formation.

2. Exchange Rate Policy

• Focus: The program analyzes the role of exchange rates in stabilization policy, alternative exchange rate systems, and long-run determinants of real exchange rates.
• Key Topics:
  • Short-run feedback mechanisms: The program examines how exchange rates influence prices and real variables, and vice versa.
  • Currency basket systems: Since 1973, many countries have adopted systems where currencies are pegged to a basket of major currencies, and this is a key area of research.
  • Real exchange rates: The program investigates long-run determinants of real exchange rates, including industrial structure, direct investment, and competition.

Key Researchers and Collaborations

• William H. Branson (Princeton) and Paul Krugman (Yale) are central figures in both comparative macroeconomics and exchange rate policy research.
• Robert Lipsey (Yale) and Jeffrey Sachs (Harvard) study the structural changes in OECD economies.
• Dennis Warner (Michigan State) and Jacques Artus (IMF) collaborate on modeling and data analysis.
• The program also interacts with researchers from the International Seminar on Macroeconomics, held in Paris, and with other NBER programs such as Economic Fluctuations, Business Taxation and Finance, and Labor Studies.

Research Summaries

1. The Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates

• Benjamin M. Friedman explores the factors influencing long-term interest rates, particularly the role of investable cash flows and inflation expectations.
• Key Findings:
  • Investors' new financial flows significantly influence bond yields.
  • Expectations of price inflation raise nominal interest rates by approximately 0.65% for a 1% increase in expected inflation.
  • Pension funds, due to their long-term liabilities, tend to prefer long-term assets, thus affecting the term structure of interest rates.
  • A shift in wealth ownership from individuals to pension funds reduces the long-short yield spread, with significant implications for capital formation.

2. Inflation Effects

• The analysis shows that inflation expectations influence both investors' and borrowers' behavior in the bond market.
• The interaction between these behaviors leads to an increase in bond yields and a decrease in the volume of bonds issued and purchased.

3. Pension Effects

• Pension funds, due to their contractual annuity arrangements, have a strong preference for long-term assets.
• A shift of $10 billion from household savings to pension funds reduces the long-short yield spread by 0.37%, while a $25 billion shift reduces it by 0.92%.
• These changes in the term structure of interest rates have substantial implications for economic activity, especially capital formation.

Conclusion

The supply-demand approach has been central to understanding long-term interest rate determination. It helps in analyzing how market participants' behavior is influenced by external factors like inflation expectations and changes in wealth ownership. The program also emphasizes the importance of international comparisons and policy implications, especially for the U.S. economy in a global context. Future research will focus on the interrelationships between corporate and government bond markets and the economic consequences of government deficit financing.

Additional Sections

• Long-Term Interest Rates: Includes summaries of Friedman’s work and related studies.
• International Prices: Robert Lipsey discusses the NBER’s research on international price behavior.
• Economic Forecasts: Victor Zarnowitz presents an analysis of macroeconomic forecasts.
• Economic Outlook Survey: A quarterly survey of the economic outlook.
• NBER Profiles: Biographical sketches of NBER members.
• Bureau News: Updates on NBER activities.
• New Bureau Books: Summaries of recent publications.
• Current Working Papers: Short summaries of recent NBER Working Papers.