期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1984_52页_875kb

NBER Reporter Summary: Fall 1984 International Studies Program

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) published the Fall 1984 NBER Reporter, which highlights the activities of the Program in International Studies. The program has been actively researching various aspects of international economics, including trade, exchange rates, and international financial stability. The report outlines the program's three main research areas and provides summaries of key projects and findings.

Main Research Areas

1. International Trade and Structural Adjustment

• Focus: Analysis of U.S. trade policy, competitiveness, and capital mobility.
• Projects:
  • A multiyear NSF-funded project led by William H. Branson and J. David Richardson examines trends in U.S. trade and investment.
  • Gene M. Grossman, Paul R. Krugman, James A. Brander, and Barbara J. Spencer study the interaction between technology and trade in imperfect markets.
  • Robert E. Baldwin leads a project on U.S. trade relations with support from the Ford Foundation.
• Key Outputs:
  • Conference on "The Structure and Evolution of Recent U.S. Trade Policy" (December 1982).
  • Conference on "Global Implications of Trade in East and Southeast Asia" (January 1984).
  • Published volume on U.S. trade policy by Baldwin and Anne O. Krueger.
• Research Themes:
  • Effects of import competition on employment and wages.
  • Role of scale economies and technology in trade.
  • Government intervention in trade policy.

2. Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics

• Focus: Exchange rate determination, international monetary systems, and macroeconomic adjustment.
• Projects:
  • J. David Richardson, Robert E. Lipsey, and Irving B. Kravis study the links between fiscal policy, interest rates, and exchange rates.
  • Robert J. Hodrick investigates the possibility that apparent inefficiencies in exchange markets reflect time-varying risk premiums.
  • David H. Papell continues empirical work on exchange rate overshooting.
• Key Outputs:
  • Conference on "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice" (1984).
  • Published volume on exchange rate theory and practice.
  • Research on the timing of exchange rate crises in fixed systems.
• Research Themes:
  • Role of expectations and new information in exchange rate movements.
  • Effects of external shocks on macroeconomic adjustment.
  • Coordination of international macroeconomic policies.

3. Debt and International Financial Stability

• Focus: International debt and its implications for financial stability.
• Projects:
  • William H. Branson and Gene M. Grossman examine the impact of OPEC surplus borrowing on OECD and developing countries' growth performance.
  • Willem H. Buiter studies debt measurement, Rudiger Dornbusch analyzes debt accumulation in Latin America, and Jeffrey A. Frankel and Paul R. Krugman explore the effects of international borrowing.
• Key Outputs:
  • A new project on debt and financial stability, coordinated by Jeffrey D. Sachs.
  • Conference on "Structural Adjustment and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries" (November 1984).
• Research Themes:
  • Debt servicing and its effects on global economic stability.
  • Potential for international coordination in macroeconomic policy.
  • Theoretical and empirical analysis of debt dynamics.

Other Projects and Collaborations

• Laurence J. Kotlikoff tests alternative explanations for world trade and growth patterns.
• Michael R. Darby continues studies on U.S. productivity and monetary policy in an open economy.
• Alan C. Stockman works on relative price determination in open economies.
• Richard Portes examines markets in disequilibrium.
• Krugman and Frankel were on leave at the Council of Economic Advisers (1982-83 and 1983-84), conducting research on international economic problems.
• Joint NBER-World Bank conference on structural adjustment and exchange rates.
• Joint NBER-University of Tokyo project on U.S.-Japan trade relations, funded by the U.S.-Japan Fulbright Commission.

Summer Institute Activities

• The NBER holds an intensive series of workshops and seminars each year in Cambridge, providing a platform for dispersed members of the international studies program.
• In 1983 and 1984, the macroeconomic and trade portions of the Summer Institute were organized by Richard C. Marston and Gene M. Grossman & J. David Richardson, respectively.
• The 1985 Summer Institute will include:
  • A review of the strategic behavior and trade working group.
  • A general review of the NSF-sponsored trade project.
  • Initial results from the debt project.
  • Further developments in macroeconomic coordination.

International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISOM)

• A joint venture between NBER and the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) in Paris.
• Held annually in June, it brings together American and European researchers to study common macroeconomic issues.
• Papers from the seminar are published in the European Economic Review in the following May.

Research Summaries

The Economic Determinants of Retirement

• Olivia S. Mitchell explores the factors influencing retirement behavior, including:
  • Labor market earnings.
  • Social Security benefits.
  • Employer-provided pensions.
  • Health status, mortality rates, and inflation.
• Key findings:
  • Economic variables account for 75% of the variation in retirement age.
  • Health plays a smaller role in retirement decisions for males.
  • Mandatory retirement is not a central factor in retirement behavior.
• Modeling:
  • An intertemporal model is used to evaluate trade-offs between income and leisure.
  • The model predicts that higher initial pensions lead to earlier retirement.

Key Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
• The Program in International Studies has three main research areas: trade and adjustment, exchange rates and macroeconomics, and debt and financial stability.
• Research is supported by grants from the Mellon Foundation, NSF, Ford Foundation, and IBM Corporation.
• Publications:
  • Several NBER Working Papers and Conference Reports are cited.
  • A volume on U.S. trade policy is published by the University of Chicago Press.
  • A conference volume on exchange rate theory and practice is forthcoming from Cambridge University Press.
• Contributions to the NBER are tax-deductible.

Conclusion

The NBER's International Studies Program in Fall 1984 is characterized by a broad range of research topics, with a strong emphasis on empirical and theoretical analysis of U.S. trade policy, exchange rate dynamics, and international financial stability. The program continues to foster collaboration between academics and policymakers, and its work has significant implications for understanding and shaping international economic policy.