20171113-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_8页_422kb

EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DESKNOTE Summary

Core Content

This document is a morning meeting note from Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. (TEB) dated 13 November 2017, providing insights into the Turkish financial market, including key economic indicators, inflation expectations, and upcoming bond issuances. It also includes legal disclaimers and jurisdiction-specific disclosures.

Main Points

1. Balance of Payments Data

• The CBRT will release the September balance of payments data.
• Current account deficit is expected to increase to USD 4.2bn, up from USD 1.6bn a year ago.
• The annualized current account deficit to GDP ratio is projected to rise by 3 percentage points to 4.7%.
• The core deficit (excluding energy and gold) is expected to increase by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1% of GDP.
• Leading indicators suggest that the current account deficit will continue to deteriorate in the next month, potentially reaching 5.0% of GDP.

2. Inflation Expectations

• The CBRT will release the Survey of Expectations for November.
• Inflation expectations are likely to continue deteriorating, driven by currency depreciation.
• In the previous survey, 12-month inflation expectations were at 8.52%, and 24-month at 7.98%.
• This survey will include 5 and 10-year inflation expectations for the first time.
• The CBRT will also include expected average repo funding rates for 3 and 12 months.
• Further inflation expectations deterioration will increase pressure on the CBRT to tighten monetary policy.

3. Treasury Bond Issuance

• The Treasury will issue 2y and 10y fixed coupon bonds tomorrow.
• The total issuance for this month is TRY 5.2bn, including a 5y fixed coupon bond auction the following week.
• Despite the small issuance amount and 10y bond yield surge of over 150bp since mid-September, demand may remain weak if global risk sentiment does not recover.
• This could put additional pressure on the bonds.

4. Market Overview

Foreign Exchange Market & Swap Market

• USDTRY: Spot rate at 3.8609, down 0.4% from previous day, up 0.9% from previous week.
• EURTRY: Spot rate at 4.4998, down 0.3% from previous day, up 1.3% from previous week.
• BASKET: Spot rate at 4.1796, down 0.4% from previous day, up 1.1% from previous week.
• Forward Implied and XCCY Swap Rates:
  • 1m: 12.16, down 0.02, up -0.09
  • 3m: 12.80, down 0.07, up 0.06
  • 6m: 13.33, down 0.08, up 0.10
  • 1Y: 13.79, down 0.12, up 0.12
  • 2Y: 13.30, down 0.15, up -0.04
  • 1v5: -1.56, down -0.05, down -0.33
  • 2v5: -1.07, down -0.02, down -0.17
  • ATM vols:
    • 1m: 14.27, up 0.39, up 1.00
    • 3m: 14.43, up 0.08, up 0.66
    • 1y: 15.09, up 0.05, up 0.47

Local Bonds & Eurobonds

• 2Y Local Government Bonds: Price at 13.55, down 0.03, up 0.26

• 5Y Local Government Bonds: Price at 12.91, up 0.01, up 0.14

• 10Y Local Government Bonds: Price at 12.28, up 0.03, up 0.03

• Sovereign Bonds:

  • 05.06.2020: Price at 107.5, Yield at 3.84%, Zsprd at 192.6
  • 09.10.2026: Price at 95.7, Yield at 5.45%, Zsprd at 315.0
  • 16.04.2043: Price at 83.5, Yield at 6.15%, Zsprd at 360.3
  • 17.02.2045: Price at 103.4, Yield at 6.34%, Zsprd at 381.1

• CPI Linkers:

  • 2Y: Price at 11.02, down 0.07, up 0.39
  • 5Y: Price at 9.83, up 0.00, up 0.12
  • 10Y: Price at 9.29, up 0.00, up 0.08

• Corporate Bonds:

  • Isctr 2021: Price at 100.5, Yield at 5.23%, Zsprd at 320.0
  • Garanti 2022: Price at 100.7, Yield at 5.07%, Zsprd at 298.3
  • Akbank 2025: Price at 95.8, Yield at 5.84%, Zsprd at 361.0

Key Contacts

• Wike Groenenberg: Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC, London, +44 20 7595 8746, wike.groenenberg@uk.bnpparibas.com
• Marcelo Carvalho: Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3418, marcelo.carvalho@br.bnpparibas.com
• Piotr Chwiejczak: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London, +44 20 7595 8715, piotr.chwiejczak@uk.bnpparibas.com
• Sai Ulluri: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London, +44 20 7595 1872, sai.ulluri@uk.bnpparibas.com
• Erkin Işik, CFA: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, Istanbul, +90 216 635 2987, erkin.isik@teb.com.tr
• Mirza Baig: Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore, +65 6210 3262, mirza.s.baig@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Altaz Daga: AU/NZ IR Strategist, Singapore, +65 6210 4994, altaz.dagha@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Dawn Kwa: Asia Graduate, Singapore, +65 6210 3263, dawn.kwa@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Kun Shan: China Strategist, Shanghai, +86 21 2896 2773, kun.shan@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Tianhe Ji: China Strategist, Shanghai, +86 21 2896 2785, tianhe.ji@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Gabriel Gersztein: Head FX & IR Latam Strategy, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3421, g Gabriel.gersztein@br.bnpparibas.com
• Samuel Castro: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3492, samuel.castro@br.bnpparibas.com
• Gustavo Mendonca: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3445, gustavo.mendonca@br.bnpparibas.com

Legal Notice

• This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) rules.
• It is not investment research for the purpose of MiFID.
• It is not intended to provide investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice.
• BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the entities or securities mentioned in this document.
• The information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as authoritative.
• No liability is accepted for any use of or reliance on the information contained in this document.
• Indicative prices are based on internal models and may vary significantly from other sources.
• The document may contain simulated performance data, which is not necessarily indicative of actual performance.
• Transactions based on this document are subject to terms agreed by the parties.
• Confidentiality is maintained, and no reproduction or distribution is allowed without prior written consent.

Jurisdictional Disclosures

• United States: Options and ETFs are complex instruments with high risk. Information is preliminary and not an official confirmation. Certain securities may be restricted and only QIBs or non-US persons may be eligible to purchase.
• UK: Document is communicated by BNP Paribas London Branch, authorized and supervised by ECB and ACPR.
• France: Report is produced and/or distributed by BNP Paribas SA and BNP Paribas Arbitrage.
• Germany: Report is distributed by BNP Paribas Niederlassung Deutschland, authorized and supervised by ECB and ACPR, subject to limited regulation by BaFin.
• Belgium: Report is distributed by BNP Paribas Fortis SA/NV, authorized and supervised by ECB and National Bank of Belgium.
• Ireland: Report is distributed by BNP Paribas S.A. Dublin Branch, regulated in France by ECB and ACPR.
• Italy: Report is distributed by BNP Paribas Succursale Italia, authorized and supervised by ECB and ACPR, and regulated by Autorité des Marchés Financiers.
• Netherlands: Report is distributed by BNP Paribas Fortis SA/NV Netherlands Branch, authorized and supervised by ECB and National Bank of Belgium, and subject to limited regulation by AFM.