20171208-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_8页_423kb
报告摘要
Summary of EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DESKNOTE (08 December 2017)
Core Content
This document is a strategy desk note from Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. and provides insights into the Turkish financial markets, including FX and IR trends, budget performance, and industrial production data. It is authored by H. Erkin Isik, CFA, and includes various market data tables and legal disclaimers.
Main Views and Key Information
Industrial Production Growth
- Expected Growth: The document expects 8.5% y/y growth in October industrial production, which is above the market consensus of 5.3%.
- Sectoral Performance:
- Electricity production increased by 8.0% y/y.
- Automotive production rose by 7.9% y/y.
- White goods production grew by 5.1% y/y.
- Supporting Factors: Sharp 40% y/y increase in imports of intermediate goods supports the strong industrial production growth.
- Future Outlook: Confidence indicators suggest that the growth may slow down in the future.
FX Reserves
- Gross FX Reserves: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) gross FX reserves declined by USD 6.5bn to USD 112.4bn on the week ending 1 December.
- Reasons for Decline:
- USD 2.5bn due to a lower FX reserve requirement of local banks.
- USD 3.5bn due to an increase in FX repo auctions.
- Reversal of Decline: USD 2.8bn of the decline was reversed as of last week, indicating a likely recovery in FX reserves.
Offshore and Local Investors
- Offshore Investors: The bond and equity portfolio of offshore investors remained broadly unchanged.
- Local Banks: Off-balance sheet FX positions of local banks increased by USD 1.4bn, suggesting carry trade inflows as a key factor behind the TRY appreciation.
- FX Deposits: Local investors increased their FX deposits by USD 0.2bn, but FX deposits are still USD 7bn below their peak in mid-September, indicating continued FX demand from locals.
Budget Performance
- Cash Based Budget Surplus: November cash based budget showed a TRY 5.7bn surplus, which is significantly better than the TRY 7.2bn deficit in the same month a year ago.
- Technical Factors: The improvement is attributed to technical factors, and when excluding one-off tax revenue collection from November 2016, the deficit increased by TRY 3.7bn, suggesting a deteriorating budget outlook.
Market Data
Foreign Exchange Market & Swap Market
- USDTRY: Spot rate at 3.8668, with a daily change of 0.2% and a weekly change of -1.2%.
- EURTRY: Spot rate at 4.5494, with a daily change of 0.0% and a weekly change of -2.3%.
- BASKET: Spot rate at 4.2082, with a daily change of 0.1% and a weekly change of -1.9%.
- Forward Implied and XCCY Swap Rates:
- 1m: 11.98, with a daily change of 0.00% and a weekly change of -0.36%.
- 3m: 12.69, with a daily change of -0.04% and a weekly change of -0.43%.
- 6m: 13.33, with a daily change of -0.03% and a weekly change of -0.39%.
- 1Y: 14.07, with a daily change of 0.01% and a weekly change of -0.40%.
- 2Y: 13.50, with a daily change of 0.02% and a weekly change of -0.30%.
- ATM Vols:
- 1m: 13.56, with a daily change of 0.13% and a weekly change of -0.19%.
- 3m: 14.00, with a daily change of 0.15% and a weekly change of -0.39%.
- 1Y: 14.91, with a daily change of 0.04% and a weekly change of -0.16%.
Government Bonds Yield Curve
- 2Y: 13.33, with a daily change of -0.03% and a weekly change of -0.40%.
- 5Y: 12.91, with a daily change of 0.02% and a weekly change of -0.32%.
- 10Y: 12.01, with a daily change of 0.00% and a weekly change of -0.35%.
- Other Bonds:
- 17.02.2045: 107.0, with a yield of 6.08%.
- CPI Linkers:
- 2Y: 10.80, with a daily change of -0.03% and a weekly change of -0.26%.
- 5Y: 9.83, with a daily change of 0.01% and a weekly change of -0.32%.
- 10Y: 9.03, with a daily change of 0.00% and a weekly change of -0.29%.
Corporate Bonds
- Isctr 2021: 99.2, with a yield of 5.62%.
- Garanti 2022: 100.7, with a yield of 5.09%.
- Akbank 2025: 97.9, with a yield of 5.48%.
Legal and Regulatory Information
- The document is a marketing communication and not investment research.
- Conflicts of Interest: BNP Paribas and its affiliates may have financial interests in the securities or issuers mentioned.
- Disclaimer: The document does not constitute an offer to sell or an investment recommendation.
- Confidentiality: The document is provided confidentially and may not be copied, reproduced, or distributed without prior written consent.
- Regulatory Information:
- UK: Document is communicated by BNP Paribas London Branch, which is authorised and supervised by the ECB and ACPR.
- France: Produced by BNP Paribas SA and BNP Paribas Arbitrage, which are authorised and supervised by ECB and ACPR.
- Germany: Distributed by BNP Paribas Niederlassung Deutschland, which is authorised and supervised by ECB and ACPR.
- Belgium: BNP Paribas Fortis is authorised and supervised by ECB and National Bank of Belgium.
- Ireland: Distributed by BNP Paribas S.A., Dublin Branch, which is regulated in France.
- Italy: Distributed by BNP Paribas Italian Branch, which is authorised and supervised by ECB and ACPR.
Important Disclosures
- Options: Complex instruments with high risk, suitable only for sophisticated investors.
- ETFs: Carry investment risks including tracking error, currency risk, and geopolitical risk.
- Convertibles and other Securities: May be restricted securities and available only to qualified institutional buyers or non-US persons.
- No Investment Advice: BNP Paribas does not offer investment, tax, or legal advice.
Contacts
| Name | Position | Location | Phone Number | Email Address |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wike Groenenberg | Head of Emerging Markets Research | London | +44 20 7595 8746 | wike.groenenberg@uk.bnpparibas.com |
| Marcelo Carvalho | Head of Emerging Markets Research | Sao Paulo | +55 11 3841 3418 | marcelo.carvalho@br.bnpparibas.com |
| Piotr Chwiejczak | FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist | London | +44 20 7595 8715 | piotr.chwiejczak@uk.bnpparibas.com |
| Sai Ulluri | FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist | London | +44 20 7595 1872 | sai.ulluri@uk.bnpparibas.com |
| Erkin İşik, CFA | FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist | Istanbul | +90 216 635 2987 | erkin.isik@teb.com.tr |
| Mirza Baig | Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy | Singapore | +65 6210 3262 | mirza.s.baig@asia.bnpparibas.com |
| Altaz Daga | AU/NZ IR Strategist | Singapore | +65 6210 4994 | altaz.dagha@asia.bnpparibas.com |
| Dawn Kwa | Asia Graduate | Singapore | +65 6210 3263 | dawn.kwa@asia.bnpparibas.com |
| Kun Shan | China Strategist | Shanghai | +86 21 2896 2773 | kun.shan@asia.bnpparibas.com |
| Tianhe Ji | China Strategist | Shanghai | +86 21 2896 2785 | tianhe.ji@asia.bnpparibas.com |
| Gabriel Gersztein | Head FX & IR Latam Strategy | Sao Paulo | +55 11 3841 3421 | g Gabriel.gersztein@br.bnpparibas.com |
| Samuel Castro | FX & IR Latam Strategist | Sao Paulo | +55 11 3841 3492 | samuel.castro@br.bnpparibas.com |
| Gustavo Mendonca | FX & IR Latam Strategist | Sao Paulo | +55 11 3841 3445 | gustavo.mendonca@br.bnpparibas.com |
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