世界就业和社会展望_2018趋势（英文版）_80页_2mb

World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018 Summary

Core Content

The World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018 report by the International Labour Organization (ILO) provides a comprehensive analysis of global and regional employment and social trends, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the context of slow economic growth and structural transformation.

Main Points

Global Economic and Employment Trends

• Global economic growth rebounded to 3.6% in 2017, up from 3.2% in 2016, but is expected to remain stable but low in the future, with projections of 3.7% for 2018 and beyond.
• The global unemployment rate is projected to decrease slightly to 5.5% in 2018, from 5.6% in 2017, but the total number of unemployed is expected to remain above 192 million.
• In 2019, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged, while the number of unemployed is projected to increase by 1.3 million.
• Vulnerable employment (own-account and contributing family workers) is on the rise, with 42.5% of global workers in such forms in 2017, and expected to remain high in developing and emerging countries (over 76% and 46%, respectively).
• Working poverty remains widespread, with 300 million workers in emerging and developing countries living on less than $1.90 (PPP) per day in 2017, and the rate of reduction slowing down.

Regional Employment and Social Trends

• Developed countries are expected to experience a sixth consecutive year of decreasing unemployment rates, reaching 5.5% in 2018, the lowest since 2007.
• Emerging countries saw a significant increase in unemployment rates between 2014 and 2017, driven by economic downturns and commodity price slumps, but are expected to see a reduction in 2018, with the rate falling to 5.5%.
• Developing countries are projected to see a rise in unemployment by 0.5 million per year in both 2018 and 2019, with the rate remaining at 5.3%.
• Youth unemployment is a major challenge, with the global youth unemployment rate at 13%, three times the adult rate of 4.3%. In Northern Africa, this rate is particularly high, with 30% of young people in the labour market unemployed.
• Gender inequality persists in employment participation and job quality, with women being less likely to find employment and facing a global gender gap in participation of over 26 percentage points. In developing countries, 82% of women are in vulnerable employment compared to 72% of men.

Structural Transformation and Job Quality

• The service sector is expected to expand across all income groups, while agricultural employment continues to decline.
• Manufacturing employment is projected to decline in upper middle-income and developed countries, and grow only marginally in lower middle-income countries.
• This structural shift could lead to complex pressures on job quality, as workers moving out of agriculture are likely to find employment in services, where working conditions are generally worse.
• Part-time and informal employment are expected to increase, especially in developed countries, with strong policy efforts needed to formalize the service sector and improve job quality and productivity.

Population Ageing and Labour Market Challenges

• Population ageing is expected to slow global labour force growth, putting pressure on pension systems and labour market opportunities.
• In developed countries, the old-age economic dependency ratio is projected to rise to 5:10 by 2030, up from 3.5:10 in 2017.
• The average age of the global labour force is expected to increase from 40 years in 2017 to 41 years in 2030, with Europe and China seeing the most significant increases.
• Old-age poverty is closely linked to existing labour market inequalities, as workers with lower incomes and poor working conditions have less capacity to save for retirement.
• Lifelong learning and targeted training for older workers are essential to enhance employability and reduce the risk of early retirement.

Key Information

• The report highlights the ongoing challenges of decent work deficits, working poverty, and unemployment, despite modest economic recovery.
• Structural transformation is expected to shift employment from agriculture to services, but this could worsen job quality if not accompanied by policy interventions.
• Population ageing is a key future challenge, with implications for pension systems and labour market dynamics.
• Regional disparities persist in employment outcomes, with developing and emerging countries facing greater challenges in reducing vulnerable employment and working poverty.
• Policy recommendations include promoting inclusive growth, formalization of employment, and improving working conditions in the service sector.

Conclusion

The World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018 underscores the need for strong policy interventions to address decent work deficits, working poverty, and unemployment, especially in the context of slow global growth and structural shifts in employment. It also highlights the importance of addressing demographic changes, such as population ageing, to ensure sustainable and inclusive labour market outcomes.