20250925-华泰期货-化工日报_EG宽幅调整_基差走弱明显_9页_2mb

报告摘要

The overall market for ethylene glycol (EG) is neutral, with price adjustments in both spot and futures markets, and a weakening basis. However, concerns arise from early inventory accumulation due to the Purushotam plant's early output, which could increase cumulative inventory pressure in the fourth quarter.

Price and Basis: The EG主力合约 closed at 4234元/吨, an increase of +22元/吨 (0.52%). The EG华东现货 price was 4305元/吨, up +13元/吨 (0.30%) compared to the previous day. The basis based on the 2509 contract was 72元/吨, showing a环比 decline of -12元/吨, indicating a weaker basis.
Production Profit: Ethylene-based production profit is -80美元/吨, down by -7美元/吨 from the previous period. Coal-based synthesis gas production profit is -300元/吨, down by -53元/吨.

MEG华东主港库存 is at 46.7万吨,环比 increase of +0.2万吨. Last week, total arrivals were 8.3万吨, leading to stable but slight inventory build-up. Current planned arrivals for this week are 7.3万吨, which is considered neutral or low.

Supply side: Domestic EG load remains high, while overseas supply is reduced due to ongoing outages in Saudi Arabia. This could lead to a potential decrease in September-October import volumes from abroad.
Demand side: Current demand recovery is slow, with limited order fulfillment. Polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, but the market awaits potential surges in orders later in the quarter, which could ease constraints on balance in September.