2022-05-16-国家金融与发展实验室-稳增长优先_地方财政承压——2022Q1地方区域财政_15页_1mb

• Summary of NIFD Quarterly Report (April 2022)

The National Institute of Financial Development (NIFD) Quarterly Report focuses on China's fiscal situation in the first quarter of 2022, emphasizing efforts to stabilize the economy amid growth challenges. Key aspects include:

• Fiscal Policy Dynamics: Q1 2022 showed a pattern of "revenue reduction, spending increase, debt rise." Factors included massive tax cuts and tax refunds reducing income growth, while fiscal spending accelerated to support infrastructure, social welfare, and prevention of COVID-related impacts through bond issuance. Large-scale government bonds drove this trend, but risks emerged from increased leverage, particularly in local government debt.

• Central-Local Fiscal Disparities: Local governments absorbed most spending pressures, with spending growth exceeding revenue. Central funds were more robust but reliant on transfers, which cannot fully resolve imbalances in fiscal authority versus responsibilities. The central fiscal surplus of 2.2 trillion yuan contrasted with local deficits of 2.3 trillion yuan, underscoring the need for fiscal reforms.

• Regional Fiscal Challenges: Economic divergence amplified regionally. Resource-rich areas like the northwest saw high revenue growth due to energy price hikes, while urban and developed regions like the长三角and珠三角faced fiscal strain from social spending and real estate decline. Land revenues plummeted due to market stagnation, limiting local ability to fund projects sustainably.

• Q2 Fiscal Outlook: The report forecasts heightened challenges in Q2, driven by COVID-19 resurgences, reduced domestic demand from consumption, exports, and investment, along with job market pressures and real estate instability. Proactive fiscal measures, including expanded tax cuts, are recommended to stabilize the economy, but long-term risks from debt reliance and slow population growth persist.

These findings highlight the urgency for fiscal reforms to address unbalanced responsibilities and regional inequalities.