欧洲各国电动车产业吸引力指数-10页_1mb

EV Country Attractiveness Index Summary (June 2023)

Core Content

The Electric Vehicle Country Attractiveness (EVCA) Index is a quarterly ranking tool that evaluates the attractiveness of European countries for investment in electric vehicles (EVs) and charging infrastructure, with a focus on passenger cars. The index is developed by Cornwall Insight in partnership with Shoosmiths, a law firm, and includes a range of metrics to assess progress and potential in the EV market.

Main Points and Key Information

Index Overview

• The index ranks 13 European countries based on a combination of metrics related to EV adoption and charging infrastructure.
• Norway continues to lead the index, maintaining the highest score (7.0) and ranking first.
• The Netherlands has moved up to second place, showing strong growth in BEV penetration and public charging infrastructure.
• France and Germany both dropped one position, despite continued growth in BEVs and public charge points.
• Spain rose to fifth place, demonstrating resilience against economic challenges and strong BEV incentives.
• Belgium, Denmark, and Ireland have also shown improvements in their rankings, while Poland and Portugal remain at the lower end.

Key Metrics in the Index

• BEVs per publicly accessible charge-point: Measures the ratio of electric vehicles to public charging points.
• Four-quarterly growth of publicly accessible charge-points: Tracks the rate of public charging infrastructure expansion.
• Achievement of AFIR fleet-based charge-point targets: Evaluates progress toward EU regulations on alternative fuels infrastructure.
• Government funding, subsidies, and tax benefits: Reflects support for both EVs and charging infrastructure.
• Inflation and electricity prices: Influences the economic attractiveness of EV adoption.
• BEV sales growth and market share: Indicates the pace of EV adoption in each country.

Charging Infrastructure Focus

• The index has expanded its focus on public charging infrastructure, emphasizing its importance in the EV transition.
• Public charge points are the primary metric used, as private infrastructure data is not available for most countries.
• Netherlands leads in public charge-point development, with one charge point per ~2.7 BEVs and exceeding AFIR targets by 424%.
• Belgium has shown strong growth in public charge points (~117% over four quarters) and offers private charge-point subsidies up to €1,500.
• Spain has a growing public charging network but a low BEV market share (3.8%) despite strong incentives.

BEV Growth Trends

• Most countries have seen positive BEV growth, with Belgium, Poland, and Portugal experiencing the highest increases.
• Ireland and UK have seen notable declines in growth, with the UK's growth dropping from 40% to 25% due to the end of the Plug-in Grant.
• Norway had a sharp decline in BEV growth due to new tax policies, though it was partially offset by pre-tax purchases in Q4 2022.

Future Outlook

• The next iteration of the index is expected to reflect continued growth in both BEV and charging markets.
• Subsidies may decline, but market penetration is expected to increase, making BEVs more competitive with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
• Policy clarity is needed in lower-ranked countries to support infrastructure development.
• Macroeconomic conditions are improving in many countries, with Denmark halving inflation and Norway seeing a significant drop in electricity prices.
• Poland still faces challenges with high inflation and electricity prices.

Challenges and Opportunities

• While public charge points are crucial, private infrastructure remains the majority of EV charging, but data on this is limited.
• Private capital has played a significant role in developing EV infrastructure, and government support is needed to sustain momentum.
• Policy uncertainty in some countries (e.g., Poland, Portugal) could hinder long-term growth.

Conclusion

The EVCA Index provides a comprehensive view of the EV and charging market landscape across Europe, highlighting both the successes and challenges of different nations. The Netherlands continues to lead in public infrastructure, while Belgium and Spain show strong growth in BEV adoption. The UK and Ireland face slower growth due to policy and economic factors, but positive trends suggest potential for improvement. As the EV market matures, the focus on infrastructure development and policy stability will be key to sustaining growth.