20150116-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook__January_16,2015_21页_569kb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-247, Jan. 16, 2015)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors as of January 2015, analyzing production trends, market prices, and trade dynamics for the key periods of 2014 and early 2015. It also highlights the impact of external factors such as disease outbreaks, exchange rates, and trade policies on the industry.

Main Points

Pork/Hogs

• PEDv Impact Reduced: The production effects of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PEDv) are abating, and the hog industry is showing signs of expansion.
• Inventory and Litter Rates:
  • Market hog inventory increased by 2% year-over-year on December 1, the first increase since March 2013.
  • Litter rate rose to 10.23 pigs per litter in September-November 2014, the first increase since 2013.
• Breeding Herd Expansion: Breeding animal inventory increased by 4% in December, indicating industry expansion.
• Farrowing Intentions: Producers expect a 4% increase in farrowings for the first half of 2015.
• Production Outlook: Pork production is forecast to rise to 23.9 billion pounds in 2015, a 4.6% increase from 2014.
• Hog Prices: Hog prices are expected to average $60–$65 per cwt in 2015, a decline of nearly 18% from 2014, due to increased supply.
• Exports: Pork exports in November 2014 fell sharply to 364 million pounds, almost 20% below November 2013, likely due to high U.S. dollar value and PEDv-related demand reduction.

Beef/Cattle

• Drought Conditions: Drought persists in the Southern Plains and Southwestern U.S., though intensity has eased.
• Cattle Weights: Average dressed weights of cattle and steers continued to climb in 2014, with steers reaching record highs.
• Production Trends:
  • Beef production was down 6% through November 2014 compared to the same period in 2013.
  • Veal production declined by 29% compared to 2013.
• Feedlot Placements: Placements in 1,000-head feedlots in November dropped 4% from 2013, but heavier weights and cheaper corn may prevent significant declines in total beef production.
• Retail Prices: Retail beef prices were at record highs in November 2014, with Choice beef reaching $6.30 per pound.
• Imports and Exports:
  • U.S. cattle imports are expected to be 2.1 million head in 2014, up 18% from 2013, mainly from Canada and Mexico.
  • Beef imports increased by 55% in November 2014, largely from Australia, while exports remained stable at 2.361 billion pounds.
  • Beef imports are forecast to decrease slightly in 2015, but demand is expected to remain strong due to lower U.S. beef production.

Poultry

• Broiler Production: Broiler meat production in November 2014 was 2.9 billion pounds, down 1% from the previous year due to fewer slaughter days.
  • Year-to-date production for the first 11 months of 2014 was 35.2 billion pounds, up 1.3% from 2013.
  • Fourth-quarter 2014 production is estimated at 9.85 billion pounds, up 3.3% from the same period in 2013.
• Prices:
  • Broiler prices remained higher in 2014 compared to 2013, with the national composite weighted average price up 3.7%.
  • Boneless/skinless breast meat prices rose 5.3% in December 2014, but leg quarters and other parts saw more significant declines.
• Turkey Production:
  • Turkey meat production in November 2014 was 479 million pounds, virtually unchanged from the previous year.
  • Fourth-quarter 2014 turkey production is expected to rise 5.6% from the same period in 2013.
  • Turkey cold storage holdings fell to 190 million pounds by the end of November, a 14% decrease from the previous year.
• Egg Production:
  • Table egg production in November 2014 increased to 605 million dozen, up 2.7% from 2013.
  • Hatching egg production was only slightly higher over the first 11 months of 2014.
  • Table egg production is expected to rise in 2015 to 7.3 billion dozen, up 2.2% from 2014.
• Egg Prices:
  • Prices peaked in late 2014 due to strong exports and market uncertainties, then fell sharply toward the end of December.
  • The New York market saw a peak of $2.19 per dozen in late November, but prices dropped to $1.16 per dozen by January 2015.
  • California egg prices rose to $2.68 per dozen in December, creating a significant price gap with other regions.

Dairy

• All-Milk Price: The average all-milk price for 2014 was a record high of $23.97 per cwt, up 19.6% from 2013.
• 2015 Forecast: The all-milk price is expected to fall to $17.75–$18.55 per cwt in 2015, down from the previous forecast of $18.45–$19.25 per cwt.
• Supply and Demand: Recent declines in prices and changes in supply and use have led to the revised forecast for 2015.

Key Information

• PEDv Impact: Reduced in 2014 due to improved biosecurity and vaccination, leading to increased pork production and lower hog prices in 2015.
• Exchange Rates: A strong U.S. dollar made U.S. pork and beef less competitive internationally, affecting export volumes and import levels.
• Trade Policies: The Russian ban on U.S. poultry imports and new cage-size regulations in California impacted turkey and egg markets.
• Market Trends:
  • Broiler exports to Mexico and other markets showed growth.
  • Beef and pork prices were high due to tight supply and strong demand.
  • Poultry production and prices were influenced by both domestic and international factors.

Conclusion

The U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors in 2014 experienced mixed outcomes. While pork and beef production showed signs of recovery and expansion, prices were affected by supply increases and the strong U.S. dollar. Poultry production remained steady with some growth, but export and price trends were influenced by trade policies and external economic conditions. Dairy prices reached a record high in 2014 but are expected to decline in 2015 due to market adjustments.