20150316-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook__March_16,2015_21页_473kb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-249, Mar. 16, 2015)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets, focusing on production trends, trade dynamics, and price forecasts for the first quarter of 2015 and the outlook for the remainder of the year. It highlights the impact of external factors such as drought, exchange rates, and international trade agreements on market performance.

Main Points

Beef and Cattle

• Drought Impact: Despite ongoing drought in the Southwestern U.S., Southern Plains wheat pasture received adequate moisture, allowing cattle to remain on pasture until mid-March.
• Production Trends: Heavier dressed weights of cattle and increased placements in feedlots may help stabilize beef production, preventing a significant decline in the first half of 2015.
• Slaughter Mix: A shift toward more dairy cows in the slaughter mix has increased average dressed weights, contributing to higher production.
• Market Conditions: Retail beef prices reached record highs, but live cattle prices declined, leading to lower packer margins.
• Imports and Exports: U.S. cattle imports fell by 13.9% in January, while beef imports rose sharply due to Australia, Nicaragua, and New Zealand. Beef exports declined in all major markets, including Hong Kong, Mexico, and South Korea, due to a strong dollar and lower production.

Pork and Hogs

• Production Increase: USDA raised the first-quarter 2015 pork production forecast by 30 million pounds, driven by higher hog slaughter and dressed weights.
• Export Decline: January pork exports fell by 21% compared to the previous year, mainly due to labor disputes at U.S. Pacific ports.
• Import Surge: Pork imports increased by 32% in January, largely due to the strong U.S. dollar making foreign pork cheaper.
• Price Trends: Wholesale pork prices declined, but retail prices remained relatively stable due to strong margins from the previous year and expectations of lower supplies.

Poultry

• Broiler Production: 2015 broiler meat production is forecast at 40 billion pounds, up 4% from 2014. January production increased by 5% due to higher slaughter numbers and average weights.
• Stock Levels: Broiler stocks at the end of January 2015 were 4% higher than the previous year, with significant increases in breast meat, legs, and thighs.
• Turkey Production: Turkey meat production is expected to rise by 6% in 2015, with January production up 8% due to increased slaughter and average weights.
• Turkey Stocks: Turkey stocks were 24% lower in January 2015, but production is expected to increase seasonally, leading to higher stocks and downward pressure on prices.
• Table Egg Production: Table egg production in January was up 1% from the previous year, reaching 619 million dozen. The table egg flock size increased slightly, and production is expected to rise to 7.32 billion dozen in 2015.

Key Information

Price Forecasts

• Beef Prices: Retail beef prices reached record highs in January 2015, but wholesale prices declined, with packer margins not significantly improving.
• Pork Prices: Wholesale pork prices fell by nearly 17% since the start of the year, while retail prices remained 6% higher than a year earlier.
• Poultry Prices: Broiler wholesale prices are expected to face downward pressure due to higher production and stock levels. Table egg prices were strong in January and February but are forecast to decline in the second and third quarters.

Trade Dynamics

• Beef Trade: Beef imports from Australia, Nicaragua, and New Zealand surged in January, while exports to major markets declined.
• Pork Trade: Pork exports to Mexico, Japan, and China/Hong Kong dropped significantly, with logistical issues and exchange rates affecting trade flows.
• Poultry Trade: Broiler shipments to Mexico, Georgia, Canada, Cuba, and Vietnam were the top destinations in January, with Mexico leading the list.

Outlook

• Beef Production: First-half 2015 beef production is expected to be close to 2014 levels, with second-half production likely to decline due to reduced slaughter and moderate carcass weights.
• Pork Production: First-quarter 2015 pork production is expected to be 6.2 billion pounds, a 7% increase from 2014. Imports are expected to remain strong, and exports are forecast to decline.
• Poultry Production: Broiler and turkey production are both expected to increase in 2015, with higher stock levels and potential price declines as a result.

Tables and Data

• Red Meat and Poultry: Production and trade data for broiler meat, turkey meat, and table eggs.
• Dairy Forecast: Milk production and price forecasts for 2015, including Class III and IV milk prices.
• Export and Import Volumes: Detailed data on U.S. exports and imports of beef, pork, and poultry in January 2015 compared to the previous year.

Web Resources

• Animal Production and Marketing Issues: Links to USDA reports on cattle, dairy, hogs, and poultry.
• WASDE Reports: Weekly updates on agricultural supply and demand. Tables will be released on March 27, 2015.