20160818-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,___Poultry_Outlook_2016.08.18_19页_752kb

报告摘要

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Summary (August 18, 2016)

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for the second half of 2016 and the year 2017 for the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors, highlighting trends in production, prices, and international trade.

Main Points

Red Meat and Poultry

Production Increase: Overall production of red meat, poultry, eggs, and milk is expected to rise in the second half of 2016 compared to 2015.
Price Trends:
- Beef: Higher production is expected to lead to lower prices. Fed cattle prices are forecast to decrease by 11.7 percent in the second half of 2016. Beef production is forecast at 25 billion pounds in 2016, up 5.3 percent from 2015.
- Poultry: Broiler production is expected to increase by 2 percent, but prices are forecast to be 5 percent higher than the second half of 2015. Turkey production is expected to rise by 7.8 percent, leading to lower prices of 6.8 percent.
- Egg Production: Table egg production is forecast to increase by 9.4 percent in the second half of 2016, but prices are expected to fall sharply due to increased supply, down 62.2 percent from the second half of 2015.

Dairy

Production and Prices:
- Milk production is forecast to increase slightly by 1.7 percent in the second half of 2016.
- Milk Prices: The all-milk price forecast for 2016 is $16.25-$16.45 per cwt, up from $15.55-$15.85. For 2017, the all-milk price is forecast at $16.15-$17.15 per cwt.
- Cheese Prices: Cheese prices have increased due to strong demand and limited supply, with forecasts for the third and fourth quarters at $1.750-$1.780 and $1.725-$1.785 per pound, respectively.
- Butter Prices: Butter prices are expected to fall due to high stocks, with forecasts at $2.235-$2.295 and $2.185-$2.275 per pound for the third and fourth quarters, respectively.
- Class III and IV Prices: Class III prices are forecast to rise to $16.25-$16.55 and $16.00-$16.60 per cwt in the third and fourth quarters, while Class IV prices are expected to fall to $14.50-$14.90 and $14.25-$14.95 per cwt.
International Outlook:
- Global prices for skim milk powder and whole milk powder have increased due to lower exportable supplies and higher demand in Asian countries.
- The top five exporters are expected to produce about 1 percent more milk in 2016 than in 2015, with the EU and U.S. showing increases and Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand showing decreases.
Milk Margin Protection Program (MPP-Dairy):
- Payments of approximately $11.2 million were announced for the May-June coverage period, the largest since the program began.
- Enrollment for 2017 is open and will end on September 30, 2016.

Pork / Hogs

Production Trends:
- Pork production is expected to begin its seasonal increase in the third quarter, with forecasts at 6.1 billion pounds for the third quarter and 6.6 billion pounds for the fourth quarter.
Price Trends:
- Live hog prices are forecast to be 8 percent lower in the third quarter and 8 percent lower in the fourth quarter compared to the same periods in 2015.
Export Trends:
- Second-quarter pork exports were 1 percent lower than the previous year, but exports to China increased significantly, reaching 58 million pounds in June, more than double the level of the same period in 2015.
- Exports to Mexico, Japan, and South Korea declined, likely due to the strong U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. pork more expensive in foreign markets.
- Third and fourth quarter pork exports are forecast to increase by 9 and 10 percent, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2015.

Poultry

Broiler Prices and Production:
- Whole broiler prices have been declining due to a stronger-than-expected seasonal pattern. The third and fourth quarter forecasts are $0.84-$0.86 and $0.81-$0.87 per pound.
- Broiler production is expected to be slightly lower in the second half of 2016 due to lower prices, which have reduced producer incentives.
Turkey Prices and Production:
- Whole turkey hen prices are expected to rise slightly in the third quarter due to weak stock trends.
- Turkey production reached a high in the second quarter, but stocks remain elevated, leading to downward pressure on prices.
Table Egg Prices and Production:
- Table egg production is forecast to be 9 percent higher in the second half of 2016 than in the same period in 2015, but prices are expected to fall due to increased supply.
- In July, wholesale prices for grade A large eggs dropped to $0.75 per dozen, a 45 percent decline from July 2014.

Key Information

Feed Prices: Both the 2015/16 and 2016/17 corn price forecasts have been lowered, with the 2016/17 forecast at $2.85-$3.45 per bushel.
Soybean Meal Prices: The 2015/16 forecast is $325 per short ton, and the 2016/17 forecast is $305-$345 per short ton.
Alfalfa Hay Prices: The national average price decreased from $147 to $142 per short ton between May and June.
Import and Export Trends:
- Beef imports are expected to rise significantly from Brazil, contributing to the 2016 forecast of 3 billion pounds.
- Dairy exports on a milk-fat basis are forecast to increase, while imports are expected to rise as well.
- Pork exports are expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, driven by improved production and international demand.
International Trade:
- The U.S. is expected to see increased demand for its pork in international markets, especially in China, which has become a major buyer.
- Trade restrictions due to HPAI have impacted poultry exports, leading to lower prices in the sector.