20160616-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2016.05.17_20页_932kb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-264, June 16, 2016)

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for 2016 and 2017, focusing on production, export, import, and price trends. It also includes data on feed prices and market dynamics affecting these sectors.

Key Trends and Forecasts

Red Meat and Beef

• 2017 Beef Production: Expected to reach 25.8 billion pounds, up over 4 percent from 2016.
• 2016 Beef Production: Forecast at 24.7 billion pounds, up 4 percent from 2015.
• Beef Exports (2016): Projected at 2.4 billion pounds, up 8 percent from last year.
• Beef Imports (2016): Forecast at nearly 2.9 billion pounds, down about 14 percent from 2015.
• Beef Export Shares: Exports as a percentage of production increased slightly due to higher production and lower prices.
• April Placements: Increased by 7 percent to 1.66 million head, indicating a shift of cattle from wheat pasture to feedlots.
• Dressed Weights: Continued to decline, with average weights at 806 pounds in April, contributing to lower production forecasts for the second half of 2016.

Dairy

• 2016 Milk Production: Forecast at 212.6 billion pounds, up slightly from 212.4 billion pounds.
• Milk Cows: Increased to 9.325 million head, contributing to higher milk production.
• All-Milk Price (2016): Forecast at $14.95–$15.35 per cwt, up from the previous month's forecast.
• Dairy Exports: Expected to grow in 2017 due to increasing global demand.
• Import and Export Adjustments:
  • On a milk-fat basis, imports and exports are both reduced by 0.3 and 0.4 billion pounds respectively for 2017.
  • On a skim-solids basis, exports are reduced by 0.5 billion pounds, while imports remain unchanged at 6.2 billion pounds.
• Butter and Cheese Prices: Both are forecast to increase in 2016 due to lower supply and higher prices.
• Class III and Class IV Prices: Raised to $13.40–$13.80 per cwt and $13.15–$13.65 per cwt respectively.
• 2017 Price Forecasts:
  • Butter: $1.880–$2.010 per pound.
  • Nonfat Dry Milk (NDM): $0.855–$0.925 per pound.
  • Whey: $0.255–$0.285 per pound.
  • Cheese: $1.535–$1.635 per pound.

Pork and Hogs

• 2016 Pork Production: Expected to increase to 6.2 billion pounds in the third quarter, 3.5 percent higher than 2015.
• 2016 Pork Exports: Totalled 430 million pounds in April, down 11 percent from 2015, but exports to China/Hong Kong nearly doubled.
• Export Trends:
  • Exports to South Korea, Australia, and Japan declined significantly in April 2016 compared to 2015.
  • China remains a strong market, with imports exceeding 892 million pounds through April 2016.
• 2016 Pork Forecast:
  • Total exports expected at 1.3 billion pounds in the second quarter and 5.2 billion pounds for the year.
  • Prices for lean hogs are expected to fall by about 3 percent in the July-September quarter.

Poultry

• Broiler Production (2016): Increased due to higher placements and production, but slowed by rising feed costs.
• Broiler Prices (2016): Forecast to rise to $0.88–$0.91 per pound, with continued pressure from feed costs.
• Turkey Production (April 2016): Down 2 percent from the previous year due to fewer slaughter days and a smaller increase in average live weight.
• Turkey Exports: Remain low, contributing to stable cold storage holdings.
• Cold Storage Holdings:
  • Overall turkey stocks at the end of April were 397 million pounds, up less than 1 percent.
  • Whole bird stocks declined by 17 percent, while other turkey products increased by 22 percent.
• Egg Production:
  • Table egg production in April was 591 million dozen, down 1 percent from 2015.
  • Recovery from HPAI-related declines is expected for 2016, with production forecast to be significantly higher than 2015.
  • Hatching egg production is forecast to increase in both 2016 and 2017, primarily to supply the broiler industry.

Feed Price Outlook

• 2015/16 Corn Prices: Forecast at $3.60–$3.80 per bushel, up $0.10 from the previous month.
• 2016/17 Corn Prices: Forecast at $3.20–$3.80 per bushel, up $0.15 from the previous month.
• Soybean Meal Prices:
  • 2015/16: $335 per short ton.
  • 2016/17: $320–$360 per short ton.
• Alfalfa Hay Prices: Increased to $153 per short ton in April from $144 in March.

Key Market Dynamics

• Export Competition: U.S. pork faces strong competition from the EU, Canada, and Brazil, especially in Asian markets.
• Feed Costs: Rising feed costs are expected to affect producer margins, particularly in broiler and turkey production.
• Global Demand: Increasing global demand for dairy products is expected to support U.S. dairy exports in 2017.
• HPAI Impact: The avian influenza outbreak in 2015 caused significant declines in poultry production, but recovery is underway.

Contacts and Links

• Authors: Mildred Haley, Kenneth H. Mathews, Jr., Seanicaa Edwards, Jerry Cessna, Jonathan Law.
• Data Sources: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS), and the Global Trade Atlas.