20151117-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2015.11.17._21页_818kb

报告摘要

Summary of Economic Research Service (ERS) Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook - November 17, 2015

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for the third quarter of 2015, including trade data, production trends, price movements, and outlook for the remainder of the year and 2016.

Main Points

Red Meat and Poultry Trade

Exports: Third-quarter exports of red meat, poultry, and dairy products were significantly lower than the previous year, with red meat exports down 20%, dairy down 25%, and poultry down 22%.
Imports: Imports increased, with poultry and dairy imports rising sharply, and beef imports also up.
Net Exports: The net value of red meat, poultry, and dairy exports dropped to $1.6 billion from $3.2 billion in the same quarter of 2014, a decline of -51%.
Exchange Rate Impact: A strong U.S. dollar reduced price competitiveness in international markets and domestic markets.
HPAI Impact: Trade restrictions due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) further depressed poultry and egg exports.
Seasonal Trends: Fourth-quarter placements are expected to rise, potentially spilling over into early 2016.

Beef/Cattle

Cattle Placements: Feeder cattle placements in feedlots were higher than the previous year, but the pace was slower in 7 of the first 9 months.
Carcass Weights: Cattle carcass weights reached record levels, with steers averaging 927 pounds and heifers 841 pounds in October.
Live Cattle Prices: Prices declined significantly, with 5-area all grade fed steers at $130.40/cwt in November, down $30 from the previous year.
Feeder Cattle Imports: Live feeder cattle imports from Canada were down 4% year-over-year, while slaughter-ready cattle imports fell by 34%.
Beef Exports: U.S. beef exports were projected to decline by 14% in 2015 due to high prices and strong Canadian and Australian competition.
Beef Imports: Beef imports remained historically high, with Australia accounting for 46% of September imports.
Processing Margins: Beef processing margins are under pressure due to weak demand and declining byproduct values.
Herd Expansion: Heifer retention for breeding purposes is evident, with fewer heifers being placed in feedlots compared to steers.

Pork/Hogs

Production Recovery: 2015 pork production is projected to be 7.3% higher than 2014, reflecting a recovery from PEDv-related supply disruptions in 2014.
Export Growth: Pork exports in September were 17.8% higher than the previous year, with strong growth in exports to Mexico, Japan, and Australia.
Import Trends: Third-quarter pork imports rose 5% year-over-year, largely due to the strong Canadian dollar and increased competitiveness of Canadian pork.
Live Swine Imports: Live Canadian swine imports increased by 8.4% in the third quarter, driven by packers accepting Canadian-origin animals.

Poultry

Broiler Production: Third-quarter broiler meat production was 10.37 billion pounds, up 5% from 2014, with higher average live weights contributing to growth.
Export Decline: Broiler exports declined sharply in the third quarter, leading to increased cold storage holdings.
Cold Storage Holdings: Cold storage holdings for broiler products reached 762 million pounds by the end of the third quarter, up 29% from the previous year.
Turkey Production: Turkey meat production in the third quarter was down 9% from the previous year, due to lower slaughter numbers and average live weights.
Turkey Stocks and Prices: Lower turkey stocks contributed to upward pressure on whole bird prices, with cold storage holdings for whole birds down 10% from the previous year.

Dairy

Milk Prices: Fourth-quarter all-milk prices are forecast to be $17.50-$17.80 per cwt, up from $17.00-$17.40 last month.
2016 Forecast: All-milk prices for 2016 are projected to be $15.95-$16.85 per cwt, down from the previous forecast of $16.05-$16.95.
Production Trends: Dairy production is expected to remain stable, with a focus on maintaining price competitiveness in the face of a strong dollar.

Key Information

Exchange Rate Impact: A high-valued U.S. dollar negatively affects export competitiveness and domestic prices.
HPAI Restrictions: Poultry and egg exports were significantly impacted by trade restrictions due to HPAI.
Carcass Weights: Cattle carcass weights have increased due to lower feed costs, excess capacity, and favorable pasture conditions.
Cold Storage Trends: Cold storage holdings for poultry and turkey products rose significantly, influencing prices and market dynamics.
Trade Dynamics: U.S. imports from Canada and Australia increased due to price differentials and seasonal trends.
Market Outlook: Beef exports are expected to rebound in 2016 with increased availability and lower prices, while pork and poultry production are forecast to stabilize or grow slightly.

Additional Resources

WASDE Tables: Will be released on November 30, 2015.
Next Newsletter Release: December 15, 2015.
Special Articles: Available on the USDA ERS website, covering topics such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Japanese demand for U.S. pork.