20151016-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2015.10.16_27页_569kb

报告摘要

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (October 16, 2015)

Core Content

The Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report for the first three quarters of 2015 provides an analysis of production, prices, and trade dynamics across key livestock sectors. It highlights the impact of disease outbreaks, market conditions, and global demand on the U.S. agricultural sector.

Main Points

Red Meat and Poultry Production

Total red meat and poultry production for Q1-Q3 2015 increased by less than 1% compared to the same period in 2014.
Beef production was about 3% below 2014 levels, consistent with the early expansion phase of the beef cycle, where females are retained for breeding.
Poultry production saw mixed results: broiler production increased by 4%, while turkey meat production dropped by 7% due to the impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).
Table egg production declined by 11% in August 2015, driven by smaller flocks and reduced egg output per hen.

Prices and Market Trends

Cattle prices declined sharply in Q3 2015, with 5-area fed steer prices averaging $125.36/cwt, nearly $40 lower than the previous year.
Wholesale beef prices fell, with Choice-Select spread narrowing due to weak demand and high carcass weights.
Broiler prices dropped significantly, with whole bird composite prices down over 10% due to trade restrictions and large cold storage stocks.
Turkey prices rose, with frozen whole hen turkeys averaging $1.26 per pound, up 15% from the previous year.
Table egg prices increased by 36% in August 2015, driven by lower production.

Trade Dynamics

U.S. beef exports declined by 12% year-to-date in 2015 due to a strong dollar and weak global demand, but are expected to rise in 2016.
Pork exports in August 2015 increased by 6.5%, driven by strong shipments to Mexico and Asia.
Pork production is forecast to increase by 1.4% in 2016, supported by record-high hog and pig inventories and litter rates.
Beef imports in 2015 reached 3.4 billion pounds, up 17% year over year, largely due to lean processing beef from Australia and New Zealand.

Sheep and Lamb

Lamb and mutton production for Q3 2015 is forecast at 37 million pounds, down nearly 3% from 2014.
Choice slaughter lamb prices increased through the third quarter and are expected to show slight improvement in Q4.
Imports of lamb and mutton remain strong, with the majority coming from Australia.

Dairy

All-milk prices for Q4 2015 are forecast at $17.00-$17.40 per cwt, up from $16.60-$17.10.
2016 all-milk prices are expected to decrease to $16.05-$16.95 per cwt.
The dairy sector is expected to benefit from increased production and lower input costs.

Key Information

Cattle Market Trends

Cattle on feed increased significantly in 2015, with record weights and lower placements due to weak prices.
Feeder calf prices fell sharply, impacting cow-calf producers.
Cattle marketings in August were the lowest since the series began in 1996, with fed cattle marketed at heavier weights than usual.

Poultry Market Trends

Broiler meat production increased by 7% in August 2015, driven by higher slaughter numbers and live weights.
Turkey meat production dropped by 7% due to HPAI, but turkey prices rose significantly.
Cold storage holdings for broiler products increased by 24% in August, while turkey cold storage holdings fell by 4%.

Global Demand and Exchange Rates

U.S. beef exports face challenges from a strong dollar and weak global demand, but are expected to improve in 2016.
European Union gained significant market share in Chinese pork imports, while U.S. pork exports declined.
Exchange rate fluctuations made European pork cheaper for Chinese buyers, contributing to the decline in U.S. pork exports.

Seasonal and Environmental Factors

Drought in the Western U.S. and Southern Plains continues to impact pasture conditions and grazing availability.
Winter wheat planting in Oklahoma and Texas was lower than the 5-year average, affecting stocker operations.
Cold storage is expected to continue to play a role in price stabilization and supply management for poultry and beef.

Tables and Reports

Red Meat and Poultry Dairy Forecast tables will be released on October 28, 2015.
Recent special articles include:
- "Effect of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on U.S. Dairy Trade" (November 2013)
- "Determinants of Japanese Demand for U.S. Pork Products in 2012" (May 2013)

Outlook for 2016

Beef production is forecast to increase by 5% in 2016, with higher slaughter levels and heavier carcass weights.
Pork production is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2016, supported by increased litter rates and breeding inventory.
Poultry production is expected to increase in the second half of 2016 as table egg production starts to recover.
Beef imports are projected to decline to 3.0 billion pounds in 2016, due to Australian herd liquidation and expanding U.S. beef supplies.