20170816-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2017.08.16_20页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Economic Research Service Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-278, August 16, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for the first half of 2017 and forecasts for 2017 and 2018. It highlights trends in production, trade, and prices across key sectors.

Main Points

First-Half Meat and Dairy Exports

U.S. meat and dairy exports for the first half of 2017 showed year-over-year growth.
The decline in the U.S. dollar (down 5.9% since December 2016) and increased global demand contributed to export growth.
Beef exports increased by 15%, reaching 1.3 billion pounds, while dairy exports saw mixed results, with declines in nonfat dry milk and dry whey but increases in butterfat products.
Japan was the largest destination for beef, but the Japanese Safeguard policy (tariff increase on U.S. frozen beef) may impact future exports.

Cattle/Beef

Cattle Herd: The U.S. cattle herd reached 102.6 million head on July 1, 2017, the largest since 2008. The calf crop was up 3.5% from 2016.
Production Forecast: 2017 commercial beef production is forecast at 26.7 billion pounds, up from 2016. 2018 is forecast at 27.4 billion pounds.
Prices: Cattle prices are expected to soften in the second half of 2017 due to increased supply. Third-quarter fed steer prices are forecast at $113.00-$117.00 per cwt, and fourth-quarter at $110.00-$116.00 per cwt.
Trade: Beef exports increased by 15% in the first half of 2017, while imports declined by 7%. Live cattle trade also increased, with exports up 38,000 head and imports up 8,000 head.

Dairy

Milk Production: June milk production was 18.047 billion pounds, 1.6% above June 2016. Milk per cow growth slowed, and the 2017 milk cow forecast was raised to 9.4 million head.
Prices: The all-milk price forecast for 2017 is $17.80-$18.00 per cwt, up from the previous forecast. Butter and cheese prices increased, while nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices decreased.
Exports: Dairy exports in the first half of 2017 were higher than the previous year, with significant exports to Canada and declines to Mexico and China.
2018 Forecasts: Milk production is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2018, and exports are forecast to rise slightly. Domestic use and ending stocks are projected to decrease slightly, and prices for butter and cheese are expected to increase.

Pork/Hogs

Production and Slaughter: Pork production in the third quarter of 2017 is forecast at 6.2 billion pounds, 2.6% higher than 2016. Hog slaughter increased by 3.4% in July compared to the same period in 2016.
Prices: Hog prices increased slightly in July, and pork carcass prices remained stable. Price declines for feeder pigs and pork carcasses slowed, indicating potential supply tightening.
Exports: U.S. pork exports in the first half of 2017 reached 22.8% of total production, up from 20.8% in 2016. Exports to Mexico and Colombia saw significant increases, while exports to China and Hong Kong declined.

Key Information

Trade Dynamics: The U.S. dollar's decline and global demand have positively influenced exports in meat and dairy sectors.
Market Trends:
- Beef exports are expected to grow, but the Japanese Safeguard policy may limit future growth.
- Dairy exports saw mixed results, with higher butterfat exports and lower NDM/SMP exports.
- Pork exports increased in the first half of 2017, driven by strong international demand.
Supply and Demand:
- Cattle herd expansion and increased calf crop suggest higher supply for 2018.
- Dairy production is expected to grow modestly, with a focus on milk fat and skim solids.
- Pork production is expected to increase, with supply growth likely to impact prices in the second half of 2017.
Price Forecasts:
- Cattle prices are forecast to decline in the second half of 2017.
- Butter and cheese prices are expected to rise, while nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices are forecast to fall.
- Hog and pork prices showed signs of stabilization in July 2017.

Tables and Figures

Red Meat and Poultry: Year-over-year growth in exports.
Dairy Forecast: Price changes for butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey.
Pork/Hogs: Export volumes and price trends for key markets.