20150728-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_48页_2mb
报告摘要
Asia Pacific Daily Summary - Daiwa Capital Markets
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of the Daiwa Investment Conference scheduled for 10–13 November 2015 in Hong Kong. It includes updates on company research, market indices, and economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific region.
Key Research Highlights
Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)
- Rating Change: Downgraded from Outperform to Hold.
- Target Price: Reduced from SGD4.75 to SGD4.73.
- Downside Risk: 4.4%.
- Recent Performance: The share price rose 18% since the announcement of the Shanghai hospital project, outperforming the FSSTI index which declined by 2%.
- 2Q15 Results: Broadly in line with expectations.
- Execution Risks: The company faces challenges in near-term execution of its expansion plans, particularly in Shenzhen.
- EPS Forecasts: Revised downward by 1–5% for 2015–2017.
- Valuation: The stock is currently trading at a 2015E PER of 35x, which is over 2SD above its historical average.
- Recommendation: Investors should focus on execution risks and potential catalysts like announcements on the Shenzhen hospital project.
Other Research Highlights
| Company/Entity | Analyst | Rating | Page |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luk Fook Holdings International (590 HK) | Jamie Soo | Not Rated | P.7 |
| Stella International (1836 HK) | David Lum | Buy | P.8 |
| China Modern Dairy Holdings (1117 HK) | Thomas Y. Kwon | Hold | P.19 |
| Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP) | Saurabh Mehta | Buy | P.22 |
| LG Uplus (032640 KS) | Loong Chee Wei | Overweight/Neutral | P.26 |
| Crompton Greaves (CRG IN) | Isaac Chow | Neutral | P.27 |
| Medco Energy (MEDC IJ) | Sarachada Sornsong | Overweight | P.28 |
| Japfa Comfeed Indonesia TBK (JPFA LJ) | Arandi Arientara | Reduce | P.29 |
Macro Research
-
Kinouchi's Technical Tips for Institutions: Eiji Kinouchi suggests being bullish on domestic demand-oriented names and looking for entry opportunities in capital goods stocks due to depressed trading levels.
-
Market Indices:
- TPX: 1D -1.1%, 1M -1.7%, YTD +16.4%.
- HSCEI: 1D -3.8%, 1M -14.2%, YTD -6.3%.
- HSI: 1D -3.1%, 1M -8.7%, YTD +3.2%.
- KOSPI: 1D -0.3%, 1M -2.5%, YTD +6.4%.
- TWSE: 1D -2.4%, 1M -9.6%, YTD -8.1%.
- SENSEX: 1D -2.0%, 1M -0.9%, YTD +0.2%.
- FSSTI: 1D -1.2%, 1M -0.2%, YTD -1.5%.
- FBMKLCI: 1D -0.6%, 1M -0.0%, YTD -2.9%.
- SET: 1D -1.8%, 1M -6.9%, YTD -5.7%.
- PCOMP: 1D -1.5%, 1M -1.0%, YTD +4.4%.
- JCI: 1D -1.8%, 1M -3.1%, YTD -8.7%.
- AS51: 1D +0.4%, 1M +0.8%, YTD +3.3%.
-
EPS Growth:
- TPX: 15E +18.6%, 16E +9.5%.
- HSCEI: 15E +4.2%, 16E +7.5%.
- HSI: 15E +0.1%, 16E +9.1%.
- KOSPI: 15E +41.3%, 16E +5.7%.
- TWSE: 15E +12.0%, 16E +7.4%.
- SENSEX: 15E +16.0%, 16E +19.3%.
- FSSTI: 15E +2.9%, 16E +8.9%.
- FBMKLCI: 15E +1.6%, 16E +9.8%.
- SET: 15E +11.8%, 16E +13.9%.
- PCOMP: 15E +9.4%, 16E +13.0%.
- JCI: 15E +2.9%, 16E +13.6%.
- AS51: 15E -2.0%, 16E -0.1%.
-
PER:
- TPX: 15E 15.7x, 16E 14.4x.
- HSCEI: 15E 7.3x, 16E 6.8x.
- HSI: 15E 11.5x, 16E 10.6x.
- KOSPI: 15E 11.0x, 16E 10.4x.
- TWSE: 15E 12.7x, 16E 11.9x.
- SENSEX: 15E 19.3x, 16E 16.1x.
- FSSTI: 15E 13.8x, 16E 12.7x.
- FBMKLCI: 15E 16.1x, 16E 14.6x.
- SET: 15E 14.7x, 16E 12.9x.
- PCOMP: 15E 20.4x, 16E 18.0x.
- JCI: 15E 15.0x, 16E 13.2x.
- AS51: 15E 15.7x, 16E 15.7x.
Company Roadshows
- 31-Jul: Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) – Telecon., Global.
- 3-4 Aug: CKI (1038 HK) & PAH (6 HK) – NDR, SG.
- 17 Aug: CSCI (3311 HK) – NDR, HK.
- 17-18 Aug: Texhong Textile (2678 HK), Suncorp (SUN AU) – NDR, Tokyo.
- 18-19 Aug: Japfa Comfeed Indonesia TBK (JPFA LJ) – NDR, SG.
- 19 Aug: CT Environmental (1363 HK) – NDR, HK.
- 20 Aug: Best Pacific (2111HK) – NDR, HK.
- 20-21 Aug: CIMC Enric (3899 HK), Japfa Comfeed Indonesia TBK (JPFA LJ) – NDR, HK.
- 21 Aug: China Suntien (956 HK) – NDR, HK.
- 24-25 Aug: ENN (2688 HK) – NDR, HK.
- 26 Aug: Canvest Environmental (1381 HK), Peak Sports (1968 HK) – NDR, HK; CIMC Enric (3899 HK) – Telecon., Global.
- 27 Aug: CALC (1848 HK) – NDR, HK.
- 28 Aug: Shopping Centres Australasia (SCP AU) – NDR, Tokyo.
- 31 Aug: Stockland (SGP AU) – NDR, Tokyo.
- 31 Aug - 1 Sep: Shenzhen International (2313 HK) – NDR, Tokyo.
- 31 Aug - 4 Sep: China Lesso (2128 HK) – Water Conf., EU + NDR.
Daiwa Asian Events
- 21-Aug: Daiwa ASEAN Conference - The 7th HOSE-Daiwa Vietnam Corporate Day 2015 – SG.
- 24-25 Aug: Daiwa Retail Corporate Day – HK.
- 26-Aug: Daiwa Consumer Day – SG.
- 31 Aug: Daiwa Asia Water Day – Zurich.
- 31-Aug: Daiwa Pan-Asia Innovative Companies Conference – Toronto.
- 1-2 Sep: Daiwa Pan-Asia Innovative Companies Conference – New York.
- 3-Sep: Daiwa Pan-Asia Innovative Companies Conference – San Francisco.
- 7-8 Sep: Daiwa Pan-Asia REIT Day Tokyo 2015 – Tokyo.
- 10-13 Nov: Daiwa Investment Conference Hong Kong 2015 – HK.
US Data Review and Other Memos
- US Data Review: Provided by Michael Moran (P.32).
- Euro Wrap-up: Provided by Emily Nicol (P.33).
- Macau Gaming: Provided by Jamie Soo (P.34).
- TPK (3673 TT): Provided by Kylie Huang (P.35).
- Korea: Share prices and Daiwa recommendation trends (P.36).
- Daiwa's Banner Products (P.37).
- Analysts' Company Visits (P.38).
- Rating and Target-Price Information (P.39).
- Recently Published Reports (P.40).
Financial Summary (Raffles Medical Group)
Revenue and Profit (SGDm)
| Metric | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 239 | 273 | 312 | 341 | 375 | 420 | 473 | 544 |
| Net Profit | 45 | 50 | 57 | 67 | 68 | 77 | 89 | 112 |
| Core EPS (FD) | 0.087 | 0.095 | 0.105 | 0.121 | 0.123 | 0.140 | 0.162 | 0.204 |
Key Ratios
| Ratio | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (YoY) | 9.4% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 15.1% |
| EBITDA (YoY) | 14.4% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 26.3% |
| Operating Profit (YoY) | 16.5% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 26.5% |
| Net Profit (YoY) | 19.5% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 17.2% | 1.5% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 26.4% |
| Gross Profit Margin | 88.9% | 88.2% | 87.6% | 88.8% | 89.4% | 89.0% | 89.0% | 89.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | 25.1% | 24.5% | 23.8% | 24.1% | 24.0% | 24.3% | 24.4% | 26.7% |
| Operating Profit Margin | 22.2% | 21.8% | 21.3% | 21.7% | 21.4% | 21.8% | 22.0% | 24.1% |
| Net Profit Margin | 18.9% | 18.5% | 18.2% | 19.5% | 18.1% | 18.4% | 18.8% | 20.6% |
| ROAE | 16.9% | 16.2% | 15.7% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 16.6% |
| ROAA | 12.8% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| ROCE | 18.1% | 17.9% | 17.3% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 17.9% |
| ROIC | 22.5% | 19.9% | 18.6% | 25.5% | 22.1% | 17.0% | 15.4% | 17.7% |
| Net Dividend Payout | 40.5% | 31.6% | 42.7% | 32.4% | 44.7% | 40.0% | 35.0% | 40.0% |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
Summary
- Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP) is downgraded to Hold due to its current valuation reflecting the potential upside of its expansion plans.
- The company is expected to face near-term execution risks, particularly with its Shenzhen hospital project.
- The 2015E PER is 35x, significantly higher than its historical average.
- Other companies and sectors are also reviewed, with varied ratings and outlooks.
- The Daiwa Investment Conference is a major event in Hong Kong, featuring numerous companies and discussions.
- Regional and global market indices are provided, showing mixed performance and growth expectations.
- The financial summary highlights the company's performance over the years, with projected growth in revenue and EPS.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
