20160630-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_48页_5mb

报告摘要

Asia Pacific Daily Summary - 30 June 2016

Core Content

This report provides a detailed overview of the financial performance and outlook for various companies and markets in the Asia Pacific region, focusing on key financial metrics, analyst ratings, and market updates. It highlights the performance of China Everbright International (CEI), SapuraKencana (SAKP), and other firms, along with regional index data and upcoming events.

Major Changes

China Everbright International (257 HK)
- Analyst: Dennis Ip
- Rating: Hold → Outperform
- Target Price: HKD9.50 (up from HKD9.0)
- Reason: Positive catalysts including the spin-off of its greentech segment and the commissioning of new WTE projects, expected to improve its PER from 15x to 16-18x.
- Key Points:
  - CEI's shares have declined by 17% YTD, while its peer Canvest has risen by 8%.
  - Concerns over biomass exposure and project delays have led to a lower valuation.
  - CEI's WTE capacity is projected to increase significantly, leading to higher equity IRRs.
SapuraKencana (SAKP MK)
- Analyst: Tan Kee Hoong
- Rating: Hold
- Target Price: RM1.36 (down from RM1.88)
- Reason: Expected deterioration in profits towards year-end, with a weaker 2H17.
- Key Points:
  - 1QFY17 core net profit of RM147.6m is 22% of full-year estimates.
  - Revenue guidance for FY17E is RM7.0-7.5bn with a sub-30% EBITDA margin.
  - Revised forecasts indicate a core net loss in 4QFY17E.

Other Research Highlights

China Autos – PV Weekly Monitor (1-24 June)
- Analyst: Kelvin Lau
- Rating: Neutral
- Key Points: Regaining growth momentum.
Coway (021240 KS)
- Analyst: Kevin Jin
- Rating: Outperform
- Key Points: Considered a good defensive stock.
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP)
- Analyst: David Lum
- Rating: Hold
- Key Points: More acquisitions, but with some dilution.
Gamuda (GAM MK)
- Analyst: Loong Chee Wei
- Rating: Buy
- Key Points: Better earnings visibility.
Indonesia Commodity Cycles
- Analyst: Arandi Aiantara
- Key Points: Brexit impact and LSIP downgrade.

Japan Equity Research

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)
- Analyst: Hirosuke Tai
- Page: P.17
- Key Points: Negatives playing out, valuations are compelling.
Net One Systems (7518 JP)
- Analyst: Makoto Ueno
- Page: P.18
- Key Points: Short-term visibility poor, but good cloud service prospects.

Macro Research

Indonesia Market Update
- Analyst: Harry Su
- Page: P.19
- Key Points: Tax amnesty progress.
Kinouchi's Technical Tips for Institutions
- Analyst: Eiji Kinouchi
- Page: P.21
- Key Points: Three chart patterns following market rout.
US Data Review
- Analyst: Michael Moran
- Page: P.23
- Key Points: Personal Income, Consumption, and Inflation.
Euro Wrap-Up
- Analyst: Emily Nicol
- Page: P.24
- Key Points: Overview of the European market.

Memo - Quick Updates

Taiwan Sportswear Sector
- Analyst: Helen Chien
- Page: P.27
- Key Points: Read through of Nike's 4Q16 results.
China Gas (384 HK)
- Analyst: Dennis Ip
- Page: P.28
- Key Points: In-line FY16 results, gas sales recovery expected in 2016.
Intime (1833 HK)
- Analyst: Anson Chan
- Page: P.34
- Key Points: Alibaba converts CBs.
Superalloy (1563 TT)
- Analyst: Helen Chien
- Page: P.35
- Key Points: Positive message from the company.
Korea: Share Prices and Daiwa Recommendation Trends
- Page: P.36
- Key Points: Daiwa's banner products and analyst visits.
Rating and Target-Price Information
- Page: P.39
- Key Points: Includes rating and target-price details for multiple companies.
Recently Published Reports
- Page: P.40
- Key Points: Summary of recent research reports.

Company Roadshows

Date	Company	Event	Venue
27 Jun - 1 Jul	Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO)	NDR	US
29 Jun - 1 Jul	Fraser Centrepoint Limited (FCL SP)	NDR	EU
5 Jul	China Titans Energy (2188)	Group Luncheon	HK
7-8 Jul	Link REIT (823 HK)	NDR	Tokyo
18-21 Jul	Gamuda Berhad (GAM MK)	NDR	EU
26 Jul	Incitec Pivot (IPL AU)	NDR	Tokyo
27 Jul	HKEI (2638 HK)	NDR	HK
28-29 Jul	China Water Affairs (855 HK)	NDR	Tokyo
1 Aug	CKI / Power Assets (1038 HK/ 6 HK)	NDR	HK
3-5 Aug	Delta Electronics (DELTA TB)	NDR	EU
4 Aug	Nine Dragons Paper (2689 HK)	Group Luncheon	HK
4 Aug	Nine Dragons Paper (2689 HK)	Group Luncheon (VC)	SG
23 Aug	SITC (1308 HK)	NDR	HK
25 Aug	Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)	NDR	HK
29-30 Aug	Xstep (1368 HK)	NDR	US
23 Sep	CSL Limited (CSL AU)	NDR	Tokyo

Daiwa Asian Events

Date	Company	Venue
8-11 Nov	Daiwa Investment Conference Hong Kong HK 2016
27 Feb-3	Daiwa Investment Conference Tokyo	Tokyo
Mar 2017	2017

Regional Indices

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	16E (%)	17E (%)	16E (x)	17E (x)
TPX	1.9	(7.6)	(19.4)	17.3	8.5	12.8	11.8
HSCEI	0.4	(0.3)	(11.3)	(3.0)	6.0	6.2	5.8
HSI	1.3	(0.7)	(6.7)	(0.5)	9.5	10.9	9.9
KOSPI	1.0	(0.7)	(0.3)	24.0	9.3	10.9	10.0
TWSE	1.0	1.5	3.0	(0.4)	10.3	13.7	12.6
SENSEX*	0.8	0.3	2.4	13.2	18.2	18.0**	15.2**
FSSTI	1.3	(0.3)	(3.1)	(2.1)	4.9	12.6	12.0
FBMKLCI*	0.5	0.3	(3.0)	(0.2)	8.4	16.1**	14.8**
SET*	0.4	2.1	12.0	7.5	13.6	15.2**	13.4**
PCOMP*	1.7	5.2	12.2	7.4	9.9	19.3**	17.6**
JCI*	2.0	3.4	8.4	8.2	13.4	15.9**	14.0**
AS51	0.8	(4.9)	(2.9)	(11.2)	6.4	16.7	15.7

*Valuation based on MSCI Universe
**MSCI index priced as of 28 Jun

Financial Summary of CEI

Metric	2016E (HKDm)	2017E (HKDm)	2018E (HKDm)
Revenue	11,842	15,969	14,833
Operating Profit	4,255	5,478	6,255
Net Profit	2,548	3,430	3,809
Core EPS (FD)	0.568	0.765	0.850
PER (x)	14.6	10.8	9.7
Dividend Yield (%)	2.1	2.8	3.1
DPS (HKD)	0.170	0.230	0.257
PBR (x)	2.0	1.7	1.5
EV/EBITDA (x)	10.7	9.4	8.7
ROE (%)	14.1	17.0	16.7

Key Assumptions for CEI

Metric	2016E (ktpd)	2017E (ktpd)	2018E (ktpd)
Year-end WTE waste treatment capacity	22.35	30.35	38.90
Average household waste treatment fee (CNY/ton)	82	82	82
On-grid electricity generated - WTE (GWh)	2,283	2,923	3,930
Waste water treated (mn tonnes)	1,212	1,286	1,325
Average WWT tariff (CNY/ton)	1.51	1.53	1.54

Profit and Loss Summary (HKDm)

Metric	2016E	2017E	2018E
Environmental energy	6,587	9,820	7,607
Environmental water	2,705	1,869	2,426
Other Revenue	2,550	4,280	4,801
Total Revenue	11,842	15,969	14,833
Operating profit	4,255	5,478	6,255
Net profit	2,548	3,430	3,809
Core EPS (FD)	0.568	0.765	0.850

Cash Flow Summary (HKDm)

Metric	2016E	2017E	2018E
Profit before tax	3,782	4,998	5,589
Depreciation and amortisation	193	213	235
Tax paid	908	1,199	1,341
Change in working capital	1,174	8,478	6,130
Cash flow from operations	2,820	(3,386)	(310)
Capex	645	849	713
Net (acquisitions)/disposals	0	0	0
Net debt/(equity)	43.9	64.7	68.8

Key Ratios (HKD)

Metric	2016E (%)	2017E (%)	2018E (%)
Sales (YoY)	38.7	34.9	(7.1)
EBITDA (YoY)	37.6	35.6	43.8
Operating profit (YoY)	35.9	34.3	42.2
Net profit (YoY)	22.2	34.6	11.1
Core EPS (YoY)	22.2	34.6	11.1
Gross-profit margin	41.3	39.8	46.6
EBITDA margin	37.6	35.6	43.8
Net profit margin	21.5	21.5	25.7
ROE	14.1	17.0	16.7
ROCE	29.3	30.9	28.8
Net interest cover (x)	9.0	11.4	9.4

Company Profile

CEI: Leading WTE investor and operator in China with a 6% market share in 2014.
WTE Plants: 21 in operation at end-2015, with 8 under construction and 40 at preparation or concession stages.
Capacity: 18.6ktpd in 2015, projected to increase to 30.35ktpd in 2017E.

SapuraKencana (SAKP) Summary

Sector: Oil & Gas
Current Price: RM1.42 (as of 28 June 2016)
Rating: Hold
Target Price: RM1.36
Key Points:
- 1QFY17 core net profit of RM147.6m.
- Revenue guidance for FY17E is RM7.0-7.5bn with a sub-30% EBITDA margin.
- Expected core net loss in 4QFY17E due to declining utilisation rates.

Stock Data (SAKP)

Metric	Value
Issued shares (m)	5,992.2
Mkt cap (RMm)/(US$m)	8,508.9/2,087.1
Avg daily vol - 6mth (m)	18.4
52-wk range (RM)	1.29-2.49
Est free float	24.7%
BV per share (RM)	1.98
P/BV (x)	0.72
Net cash/(debt) (RMm)	15,003.5
ROE (2017E)	1.2%
Shariah Compliant	Yes