20150810-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and Chinese equity markets, including key indices, sector performance, stock analysis, and market data. It outlines recent trends, notable stock movements, and market valuations, along with insights into external market conditions and investment strategies.

Main Indices and Trends

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Close: 24,552
Daily change: +0.7%
Year-to-Date (YTD) change: +4.0%
Trend: Stabilized at the 10-day moving average (MA)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

Close: 11,228
Daily change: +1.2%
YTD change: -6.3%
Trend: Rebounded from recent lows

Shanghai Composite (Shanghai Comp)

Close: 3,744
Daily change: +2.3%
YTD change: +15.8%

Shenzhen Composite (Shenzhen Comp)

Close: 2,177
Daily change: +3.0%
YTD change: +53.8%

U.S. Indices

DJIA: 17,373 (-0.3%)
S&P 500: 2,078 (-0.3%)
Nasdaq Composite: 5,044 (-0.3%)
FTSE 100: 6,718 (-0.4%)
DAX: 11,491 (-0.8%)
CAC 40: 5,155 (-0.7%)
Nikkei 225: 20,628 (-0.5%)
Taiwan Weighted: 8,442 (-0.1%)

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors (Daily change)

Marine: +7.3%
Infrastructure: +3.9%
Coal: +3.8%
Gaming: +2.9%
Agriculture: +2.7%
Steel: +2.5%
Building Materials: +2.5%
Brokerages: +1.8%
Chinese Insurers: +1.6%
Technology: +1.5%
Chinese Banks: +1.4%
Durable Consumables: +1.3%
Chinese Property: +1.1%
Heavy Machinery: +1.0%

Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors

Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Construction (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Communications Construction (1800), China Machinery Engineering (1829)
Coal: China Shenhua (1088), Yanzhou Coal (1171), China Coal (1898)
Gaming: Galaxy Entertainment (27), SJM Holdings (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Resources (639)
Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Resources Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)
Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Securities (1375), CITIC Securities (6030), Haitong Securities (6837), China Galaxy Securities (6881)
Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Insurance (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
Durable Consumables: Welling Holdings (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Electronics (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
Chinese Property: COLI (688), China Resources Land (1109), Sunac (1918), Country Garden (2007), Evergrande (3333)
Aluminum: Chalco (2600), China Hongqiao (1378), China Zhongwang (1333), RUSAL (486)
Heavy Machinery: Sany International (631), Zoomlion (1157), Lonking (3339), Sinotruk (3808)

Forward P/E and Valuations

Index	FY15E P/E	Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E	Deviation from Avg. (%)	FY1 EPS Growth (%)	FY2 EPS Growth (%)
HSI	11.9	11.4	+4.1	-11.3	+9.7
HSCEI	8.1	8.9	-9.4	+1.5	+9.5
Shanghai Comp	15.4	11.1	+39.1	+24.2	+13.4
S&P 500	17.5	14.4	+22.1	+4.7	+11.1

Market Data Highlights

Best Performers

China Shipping-H (2866.HK): HK$3.110 (+23.9%)
China Cosco HO-H (1919.HK): HK$4.940 (+13.6%)
Zall Development (2098.HK): HK$3.510 (+13.2%)
China Shipping D (1138.HK): HK$5.490 (+12.5%)
China Machinery-H (1829.HK): HK$6.530 (+10.5%)

Worst Performers

Hi Sun Technology (818.HK): HK$1.600 (-7.0%)
Landing International (582.HK): HK$0.330 (-4.3%)
Beijing Cap AI-H (694.HK): HK$8.030 (-3.7%)
Smartone Telecom (315.HK): HK$14.620 (-3.6%)
BJ Ent Water (371.HK): HK$5.660 (-3.4%)

Stock in Focus

China Railway Construction (1186.HK)

Last Close: HK$11.46
Entry: HK$11.10
Target: HK$14.30
Stop-loss: HK$9.80
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: +16.0% / +18.4% / -13.8% / +51.0%
Market Cap: HK$264.42bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 20.311mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 9.3X

Key Points

CRCC is a leading railway construction company in China.
The company has secured significant contracts in both domestic and overseas markets.
It is expected to benefit from the government's infrastructure investment plan.
CRCC's current valuation is attractive with forward P/E ratios of 9.3X and 8.6X for FY15 and FY16 respectively.
Buy at HK$11.10, target at HK$14.30, with a stop loss at HK$9.80.

Today's Top Picks

MCC (1618.HK)

Last Close: HK$2.74
Purchase Price: Current price
Target Price: HK$3.00
Stop-loss Price: HK$2.47
Reason: Expected to benefit from the anticipated trillion-dollar infrastructure investment in China.

FIH (2038.HK)

Last Close: HK$3.85
Purchase Price: Current price
Target Price: HK$5.00
Stop-loss Price: HK$3.58
Reason: Share price fell below the profit alert level in June; now considered to be at attractive valuations.

External Market Conditions

China July Exports: Declined by 8.3% in dollar terms, below the forecast of 1.5%.
PPI: Fell by 5.4% in July, the biggest drop since Oct 2009.
CPI: Rose by 1.6%, the highest increase since last year.
U.S. Market: Fell due to expectations of a rate hike in September.
Oil Prices: Dropped as U.S. drilling activity increased.
Gold Prices: Rose with a weakening U.S. Dollar.
ADR Performance: ADRs fell, contributing to a decline in HSI by 150 points.

Key Market Insights

Infrastructure Investment: China is expected to launch trillions of RMB in infrastructure investments, which will support the growth of companies like CRCC.
Sector Momentum: The infrastructure and marine sectors showed strong performance.
Valuation Opportunities: Several stocks are at attractive valuations, making them potential investment targets.
Short Selling Activity: Several stocks showed significant short selling, indicating market sentiment and potential volatility.

Conclusion

The document highlights the recent performance of key indices and sectors, focusing on the infrastructure and marine sectors as strong performers. It provides insights into the potential of stocks like China Railway Construction (1186.HK) and MCC (1618.HK) based on anticipated infrastructure investments and market valuations. Investors are advised to monitor the market for opportunities and consider the impact of external factors such as interest rates and exchange rates.

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