20150918-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content

This daily note provides an overview of the Hong Kong and global stock market conditions, focusing on the Hang Seng Index (HSI), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), and other major indices. It includes analysis of stock performance, valuations, economic data, and market trends, along with insights on key stocks and ETFs.

Main Points

• Market Trends: The HSI and HSCEI both closed above their 20-Day Moving Average (MA), indicating a potential for continued upward momentum.
• U.S. Market Conditions: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with a median forecast of 0.375% for the end of the year. U.S. stocks showed gains as concerns over rate hikes eased. The U.S. CPI for August was 0.2% YoY, below the 2% target, which supports the idea of no rate hike this year.
• Hong Kong Market Performance: The HSI fell by 0.5%, while the HSCEI rose by 0.6%. The overall market turnover was about HK$89.8 billion. Some stocks, such as Tsingtao Brewery and Jiangxi Copper, saw significant gains due to positive news and expectations of higher copper prices.
• Key Stock Focus: Sinotrans Ltd-H (598.HK) is highlighted for its attractive valuation and potential for growth due to anticipated SOE reforms. The company's forward P/E is 9.8x, below its 10-year average of 11.7x. The stock is recommended to be bought at HK$3.82 with a target of HK$5.00 and a stop-loss at HK$3.65.
• Today's Top Picks:
  • China Newcity (1321): Expected to rise due to strong momentum and increased turnover. Buy at HK$9.28, target HK$10.10, stop-loss HK$9.00.
  • Col Capital (383): Expected to rise due to an expanding MACD bullish gap and high turnover. Buy at HK$0.44, target HK$0.50, stop-loss HK$0.42.

Sector Performance

• Top Performing Sectors:

  • Chinese Insurers: 2.5% daily change, 3.9% over 5 days, 1.6% over 1 month.
  • Brokerages: 2.0% daily change, 0.8% over 5 days, -6.8% over 1 month.
  • Automobile: 1.8% daily change, 4.5% over 5 days, 4.9% over 1 month.
  • Other Metals: 1.7% daily change, 1.3% over 5 days, -6.3% over 1 month.
  • Infrastructure: 1.5% daily change, 2.0% over 5 days, -1.3% over 1 month.
  • Oil-related: 1.5% daily change, 1.3% over 5 days, -10.4% over 1 month.
  • Consumer Staples: 1.2% daily change, 0.0% over 5 days, -9.7% over 1 month.
  • Handset and related accessories: 1.2% daily change, 3.5% over 5 days, 0.4% over 1 month.
  • Coal: 1.0% daily change, -0.3% over 5 days, -12.3% over 1 month.
  • Steel: 1.0% daily change, 2.1% over 5 days, -10.3% over 1 month.
  • Medical: 0.8% daily change, 0.0% over 5 days, -5.7% over 1 month.
  • Telecoms Equipment: 0.5% daily change, 1.1% over 5 days, -5.0% over 1 month.
  • Building Materials: 0.3% daily change, 0.7% over 5 days, -8.6% over 1 month.
  • IPP: 0.3% daily change, 1.0% over 5 days, -4.4% over 1 month.
  • HK Telecoms: 0.3% daily change, 0.5% over 5 days, -5.3% over 1 month.

• Major Stocks in Top Sectors:

  • Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
  • Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)
  • Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), BRILLIANCE CHI (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
  • Other Metals: Jiangxi Copper (358), CMOC (3993), Zhaojin Mining (1818), Zijin Mining (2899)
  • Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)
  • Oil-related: Sinopec (386), PetroChina (857), CNOOC (883), Hilong Hldg. (1623), China Oilfield Services (2883)
  • Consumer Staples: Want Want (151), Uni-President (220), Tingyi (322), Hengan Int'l (1044), Sun Art Retail (6808)
  • Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618)
  • Coal: China Shenhua (1088), Yanzhou Coal (1171), China Coal (1898)
  • Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639)
  • Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)
  • Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
  • Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Res Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)
  • IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), Huadian Power Int'l (1071), China Power Int'l (2380)
  • HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)

Valuations and Market Data

• Forward P/E and Valuations:

  • HSI: FY15E P/E of 10.8x, long-term average of 11.3x, deviation of -3.7%, FY1 EPS growth of -13.3%, FY2 EPS growth of 7.4%.
  • HSCEI: FY15E P/E of 7.4x, long-term average of 8.5x, deviation of -13.1%, FY1 EPS growth of -3.8%, FY2 EPS growth of 6.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: FY15E P/E of 13.0x, long-term average of 11.0x, deviation of +18.1%, FY1 EPS growth of 17.9%, FY2 EPS growth of 12.4%.
  • S&P 500: FY15E P/E of 16.8x, long-term average of 14.7x, deviation of +14.1%, FY1 EPS growth of 4.5%, FY2 EPS growth of 10.3%.

• Previous Day's Best and Worst Performers:

  • Best: Tsingtao Brewery (168.HK) with 8.6% gain, Greenland Hong K (337.HK) with 6.1% gain, Lenovo Group (992.HK) with 5.7% gain, PW Medtech Group (1358.HK) with 5.5% gain, Jiangxi Copper (358.HK) with 5.2% gain.
  • Worst: Trinity Ltd (891.HK) with -17.2% loss, Car Inc (699.HK) with -8.4% loss, Baoxin Auto Group (1293.HK) with -7.4% loss, Yashili Int'l (1230.HK) with -4.9% loss, Springland (1700.HK) with -4.2% loss.

• HSCI Volume Filter:

  • Companies with significant volume increases or decreases are highlighted, including those with high turnover and large short-selling activity.

• Most Short Sold Stocks:

  • China Vanke-H (2202.HK), Sun Art Retail (6808.HK), BLOOMAGE BIOTE (963.HK), Huishang Bank-H (891.HK), and others are listed with their short-selling activity and valuation metrics.

• Interest Rates:

  • U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.6775%, down by 2.78 bps over 5 days.
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.1796%, down by 0.87 bps over 5 days.
  • U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 2.9949%, up by 4.25 bps over 5 days.
  • HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2414%, down by 0.14 bps.
  • HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.4002%, up by 0.06 bps.

• Exchange Rates:

  • USD Dollar Index: 94.5380, down by 0.7% over 5 days.
  • USD/HKD: 7.7501, stable over 5 days.
  • EUR/USD: 1.1408, up by 0.6% over 5 days.
  • USD/JPY: 119.75, up by 0.7% over 5 days.
  • GBP/USD: 1.5569, up by 0.9% over 5 days.
  • USD/CHF: 0.9606, up by 0.9% over 5 days.
  • AUD/USD: 0.7185, up by 1.3% over 5 days.
  • NZD/USD: 0.6352, down by 0.6% over 5 days.
  • USD/CAD: 1.3177, up by 0.7% over 5 days.
  • USD/CNY: 6.3676, up by 0.1% over 5 days.
  • USD/CNH: 6.4013, up by 0.1% over 5 days.

• Precious Metals and Commodities:

  • CRB Index: 198.2, up by 0.1% over 5 days.
  • Comex Gold: 1,130.1, up by 2.4% over 5 days.
  • Comex Silver: 15.115, up by 4.2% over 5 days.
  • Nymex WTI Crude: 46.68, up by 4.6% over 5 days.
  • ICE Brent Crude: 49.1, up by 2.0% over 5 days.
  • LME Copper: 5,390, down by 0.1% over 5 days.
  • LME Aluminum: 1,632, down by 0.3% over 5 days.
  • CBT Wheat: 482.25, down by 0.6% over 5 days.
  • CBT Corn: 380.50, down by 1.7% over 5 days.
  • CBT Soybean: 884.00, up by 1.1% over 5 days.

• A-share Premium to H-share:

  • A-listed companies show varying premiums to their H-shares, with some having significant discounts or premiums based on their performance and valuation.

• Top 20 Most Traded ETFs:

  • A list of ETFs, including HSI ETF, HS H-share ETF, and others, with their prices and daily/5-day percentage changes.

Key Information

• Market Sentiment: The market is influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision and the potential for SOE reforms in China.
• Valuation Metrics: Forward P/E ratios are below long-term averages for several indices, suggesting potential for growth.
• Stock Performance: Some stocks are performing well due to positive news and sector-specific factors.
• ETF Activity: ETFs are actively traded, indicating market interest and potential for diversified investment.

This summary provides a comprehensive overview of the market conditions, key stocks, and sector performance for the Hong Kong and global markets.