20150914-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_13页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and Chinese equity markets, including index performance, stock highlights, sector analysis, valuations, market data, and comparisons between A-shares and H-shares.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Market Highlights

• State Council Reform Guidelines: The State Council issued guidelines to reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs), dividing them into for-profit and public welfare categories. This is expected to benefit SOE reform-themed stocks.
• Railway Infrastructure Projects: The National Development and Reform Commission approved three railway lines with a total estimated cost of RMB142.77bn, likely boosting railway and infrastructure stocks. However, China Railway Group (390.HK) and China Railway Erju are suspended due to restructuring.
• Equity Indices Performance:
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 21,504, down 0.3%.
  • HSCEI: Closed at 9,718, down 0.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Closed at 3,200, up 0.1%.
  • Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 1,781, up 0.6%.
• Hong Kong Market Turnover:
  • HSI: HK$31.5bn, up 18.10%.
  • HSCCI: HK$6.1bn, down 6.89%.
  • HSCEI: HK$20.1bn, up 20.90%.
  • Main Board: HK$87.1bn, up 9.65%.

2. Stock in Focus: CKI HOLDINGS (1038.HK)

• Price Analysis:
  • Last Close: HK$66.90
  • Entry: HK$68.00
  • Target: HK$82.00
  • Stop-loss: HK$58.00
• Performance:
  • YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 16.6%/-0.6%/7.1%/19.9%
  • Market Cap: HK$168.56bn
  • 3M Average Daily Volume: 1.97mn shares
  • FY1 Forward P/E: 16.2x
• Merger with Power Assets: CKI announced a merger with Power Assets (6.HK) at a ratio of 1.04 new shares for every outstanding Power Assets share. The merger is expected to increase CKI's book value per share to HK$44.80, suggesting a "buy" signal due to the discount in P/B compared to historical averages.

3. Today's Top Picks

• TIC TAC Int'l (1470.HK):
  • Last Close: HK$0.455
  • Purchase Price: Current
  • Target Price: HK$0.550
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$0.420
  • Reason: Share price rose above 10 and 20-day MA, and is expected to rise further with increased turnover.
• Coslight Tech (1043.HK):
  • Last Close: HK$2.39
  • Purchase Price: Current
  • Target Price: HK$2.60
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$2.25
  • Reason: Lithium-ion battery business revenue nearly doubled in the first half, with attractive valuations.

4. Sector Performance

• Best Performing Sectors (1D % change):
  • Steel: 4.0%
  • Airline: 3.1%
  • Sports Accessories: 2.4%
  • HK Consumer Group: 1.5%
  • Brokerages: 1.4%
  • IPP: 1.3%
  • Durable Consumables: 1.2%
  • Logistics: 1.1%
  • Department Store: 0.8%
  • Heavy Machinery: 0.7%
• Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors:
  • Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639)
  • Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
  • Sports Accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xtep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
  • HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
  • Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)
  • IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), Huadian Power Int'l (1071), China Power Int'l (2380)
  • Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
  • Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308)
  • Department Store: NWDS China (825), Springland (1700), Intime (1833), Golden Eagle (3308), Parkson Group (3368)
  • Heavy Machinery: Sany Int'l (631), Zoomlion (1157), Lonking (3339), Sinotruk (3808)

5. Valuations of Major Indices

• Hang Seng Index:
  • FY15E P/E: 10.7x
  • Long-term avg. Fwd. P/E: 11.3x
  • Deviation from avg.: -4.9%
  • FY1 EPS growth: -13.2%
  • FY2 EPS growth: 7.7%
• HSCEI:
  • FY15E P/E: 7.2x
  • Long-term avg. Fwd. P/E: 8.5x
  • Deviation from avg.: -15.1%
  • FY1 EPS growth: -4.1%
  • FY2 EPS growth: 7.4%
• Shanghai Composite:
  • FY15E P/E: 13.4x
  • Long-term avg. Fwd. P/E: 11.0x
  • Deviation from avg.: +21.4%
  • FY1 EPS growth: 18.8%
  • FY2 EPS growth: 12.7%
• S&P 500:
  • FY15E P/E: 16.6x
  • Long-term avg. Fwd. P/E: 14.7x
  • Deviation from avg.: +12.4%
  • FY1 EPS growth: 4.5%
  • FY2 EPS growth: 10.3%

6. Market Data

• Best and Worst Performers:
  • Best: TIANNENG POWER (819.HK), INTERNATIONAL EN (1009.HK), CHINA SINGYES SO (750.HK), CHINA YURUN FOOD (1068.HK), ANGANG STEEL-H (347.HK)
  • Worst: HAITONG INT'L (665.HK), ZIJIN MINING-H (2899.HK), CHINA SHENHUA-H (1088.HK), SHIMAO PROPERTY (813.HK), CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883.HK)
• HSCI Volume Filter: Highlights stocks with significant volume increases compared to the 30-day average.
• Most Short Sold Stocks: Includes companies like SHANGRI-LA ASIA (69.HK), ESPRIT HLDGS (330.HK), MGM CHINA (2282.HK), etc., with details on short-sell turnover and P/E ratios.

7. External Market Conditions

• August PPI: Better than expected, leading to gains in U.S. equities.
• U.S. Market:
  • DJIA: Closed at 16,433, up 102 points.
  • S&P 500: Closed at 1,961, up 8 points.
  • NASDAQ: Closed at 4,822, up 26 points.
• ADR Impact: ADRs rose, effectively pushing HSI up 67 points.
• Commodity Prices:
  • New York crude oil futures: US$44.63/bbl, down US$1.29.
  • Gold prices: US$1,104.2/oz, down US$5.2.
  • Silver: US$14.550/oz, up 0.0%.
• Interest Rates:
  • U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.7154%, up 0.87 bps.
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.1972%, up 7.28 bps.
  • HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2450%, down 0.30 bps.
  • HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3981%, down 0.51 bps.
  • SH 1-month HIBOR: 3.0050%, down 4.50 bps.

8. Exchange Rates

• USD Dollar Index: 95.1100, down 1.2%.
• USD/HKD: 7.7501, up 0.0%.
• EUR/USD: 1.1351, up 1.6%.
• USD/JPY: 120.63, down 1.1%.
• GBP/USD: 1.5456, up 1.2%.
• USD/CHF: 0.9683, up 0.7%.
• AUD/USD: 0.7119, up 2.8%.
• NZD/USD: 0.6339, down 1.3%.
• USD/CAD: 1.3234, up 0.6%.
• USD/CNY: 6.3674, up 0.0%.
• USD/CNH: 6.4093, up 1.1%.

9. A-share Premium to H-share

• Top Companies: Includes LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108.HK), PETROCHINA-H (857.HK), SINOPEC SHANG-H (338.HK), etc.
• A-share Premium: Ranges from 16.3% to 511.7%, with notable examples like LUOYANG GLASS-H and PETROCHINA-H showing a significant premium.

10. Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

• ETFs: Includes CSOP FTSE CH-HKD (2822.HK), HS H-SHARE ETF-H (2828.HK), TRACKER FUND HK (2800.HK), ISHARES FTSE A50 (2823.HK), etc.
• Performance: Varies with price changes and volume fluctuations.

Conclusion

The document outlines a range of investment insights, focusing on the recent market trends, sector performances, and key stocks. It highlights the potential benefits from SOE reforms, railway infrastructure projects, and the "buy" signal for CKI HOLDINGS. Additionally, it provides a detailed look at the performance of various sectors, valuations of major indices, and the impact of external market conditions on the Hong Kong and Chinese markets. The A-share premium to H-share is also discussed, showing varying levels of valuation differences. Overall, it serves as a valuable resource for investors seeking to understand current market dynamics and identify potential opportunities.