20150911-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global financial market conditions, focusing on the Hang Seng Index (HSI), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), and related indices. It includes insights on stock performance, sector trends, valuations, and specific stock recommendations.

Main Points and Key Information

Market Highlights

Renminbi Surge: Offshore renminbi surged 789 basis points against the U.S. dollar, narrowing the spread with the onshore rate. This is attributed to possible intervention by the Chinese central bank.
Fosun Intl Rights Issue: Proposed a rights issue to raise up to HK$11.7bn for general corporate purposes, including acquisitions and loan repayments. The rights issue price is equal to the previous day's closing price, with a ratio of 56 rights shares for 500 existing shares.

Equity Indices Performance

Index	Close	Daily Change (%)	YTD Change (%)
Hang Seng Index	21,563	-2.6	-8.7
HSCEI	9,780	-2.0	-18.4
Shanghai Composite	3,198	-1.4	-1.1
Shenzhen Composite	1,770	-1.6	+25.1
DJIA	16,330	+0.5	-8.4
S&P 500	1,952	+0.5	-5.2
Nasdaq Composite	4,796	+0.8	+1.3
FTSE 100	6,156	-1.2	-6.2
DAX	10,210	-0.9	+4.1
CAC 40	4,597	-1.5	+7.6
Nikkei 225	18,276	-0.1	+4.7
Taiwan Weighted	8,269	-0.2	-11.2

Hong Kong Market Turnover

Index	Turnover (HK$bn)	Daily Change (%)
HSI	26.7	-8.09%
HSCCI	6.6	+9.96%
HSCEI	16.6	+5.68%
Main Board	79.5	-1.89%

Sector Performance

Sector	Daily Change (%)	5D Change (%)	1M Change (%)
Infrastructure	+1.7%	+10.8%	-6.2%
Logistics	+1.1%	+2.7%	-8.6%
Airline	+0.8%	+7.3%	-24.4%
IPP	+0.3%	+6.8%	-7.7%
Telecoms Equipment	+0.2%	+7.5%	-11.5%
Aluminum	+0.2%	+8.9%	-15.9%
Building Materials	+0.1%	+8.8%	-12.7%
HK Consumer Group	-0.2%	+1.2%	-11.4%
Department Store	-0.5%	+2.9%	-11.9%
Consumer Staples	-0.6%	+3.1%	-9.4%
Handset & Accessories	-0.6%	+4.5%	-8.7%
Other Metals	-0.7%	+7.4%	-8.4%
Gas	-0.8%	+6.4%	-14.4%
Chinese Insurers	-0.9%	+7.6%	-9.2%
Sports Accessories	-1.0%	+5.8%	-2.1%

Top Performing Stocks

AJISEN CHINA HOL (538.HK): +6.4% (1D), +6.7% (5D), -13.2% (1M)
COOLPAD (2369.HK): +6.0% (1D), -9.5% (5D), -29.1% (1M)
CP NEW ENERGY (735.HK): +5.8% (1D), +13.8% (5D), -12.5% (1M)
BEIJING ENT (392.HK): +5.5% (1D), +9.9% (5D), -12.3% (1M)
CRRC CORP LTD -H (1766.HK): +5.1% (1D), +12.2% (5D), -6.3% (1M)

Worst Performing Stocks

CHINA PRECIOUS M (1194.HK): -10.1% (1D), +8.8% (5D), -21.5% (1M)
LANDING INTERNAT (582.HK): -7.8% (1D), +2.4% (5D), -23.9% (1M)
XINCHEN CHINA PO (1148.HK): -7.5% (1D), +10.2% (5D), -27.9% (1M)
CNOOC (883.HK): -6.6% (1D), -0.5% (5D), -11.4% (1M)
BLOOMAGE BIOTE (963.HK): -6.1% (1D), -3.3% (5D), -22.8% (1M)

Stock in Focus: FOSUN PHARMA-H (2196.HK)

Last Close: HK$23.75
Entry: HK$23.75
Target: HK$26.70
Stop-loss: HK$22.00
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -14.9% / -3.1% / -20.1% / -11.9%
Market Cap: HK$64.49bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 2.70mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 21.6x
Reason for Investment: Strong medical services potential and robust R&D capability. Retail sales of Chinese and Western drugs increased by 14.6% YoY, and the company's medical services segment showed significant growth.

Today's Top Picks

PW Medtech (1358.HK):
- Last Close: HK$1.70
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$1.88
- Stop-loss Price: HK$1.34
- Reason: Attractive valuations and expected rebound above 20-day MA.
Beijing Ent (392.HK):
- Last Close: HK$48.15
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$51.70
- Stop-loss Price: HK$45.00
- Reason: Share price traded above 20-day MA, with increasing turnover expected to create further rebound.

Forward P/E and Valuations

Index	FY15E P/E (X)	Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E (X)	Deviation from Avg. (%)	FY1 EPS Growth (%)	FY2 EPS Growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	10.7	11.3	-4.6	-13.1	7.9
HSCEI	7.3	8.5	-14.5	-4.1	7.6
Shanghai Composite	13.5	11.0	+21.9	+18.2	+13.0
S&P 500	16.5	14.7	+11.9	+4.6	+10.5

Market Data Highlights

HSCI Volume Filter: Companies with significant volume increases and price changes are highlighted, including CRRC CORP LTD -H and COOLPAD.
Most Short Sold Stocks:
- CHINA VANKE-H (2202.HK): -5.0% (1D), 150.7% premium to A-share
- FOSUN PHARMA-H (2196.HK): -21.2% (1D), 21.2% premium to A-share
- PING AN-H (2318.HK): -4.2% (1D), -4.2% premium to A-share

Interest Rates

U.S. 2-year Treasury Yield: 0.7330, +2.63 bps (5D)
U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield: 2.2185, +9.41 bps (5D)
HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2429, -0.99 bps (5D)
HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3996, -0.77 bps (5D)

Exchange Rates

USD/HKD: 7.7501, 0.0% (1D)
EUR/USD: 1.1283, +1.3% (1D)
USD/JPY: 120.81, -1.5% (1D)
GBP/USD: 1.5446, +1.8% (1D)

Precious Metals and Commodities

CRB Index: 198.0, +0.6% (1D)
Comex Gold: US$1,110.3, -1.2% (1D)
Nymex WTI Crude: US$45.67, -2.3% (1D)
LME Copper: 5,398, +2.9% (1D)
LME Aluminum: 1,637.5, +0.5% (1D)

A-share Premium to H-share

FOSUN PHARMA-H (2196.HK): 21.2% premium to A-share
CHINA VANKE-H (2202.HK): -5.0% premium to A-share
PING AN-H (2318.HK): -4.2% premium to A-share
CHINA LIFE-H (2628.HK): 14.3% premium to A-share
CHINA COSCO HO-H (1919.HK): 35.3% premium to A-share

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

HS H-SHARE ETF-H (2828.HK): Price HK$100.20, 1D change -1.76%, 5D change +5.53%
TRACKER FUND HK (2800.HK): Price HK$22.30, 1D change -2.00%, 5D change +5.53% (incomplete data in the original)

Summary

The Hong Kong and global markets experienced mixed performances, with notable trends in the HSI and HSCEI indices. The renminbi surged against the dollar, potentially due to central bank intervention, while the HSI and HSCEI saw declines. Fosun Intl raised funds through a rights issue, and Fosun Pharmaceutical is highlighted for its strong R&D and expanding medical services segment. Infrastructure and logistics sectors showed positive movements, while airlines and consumer groups faced downward pressure. ETFs and major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also had varied performances. The A-share premium to H-share was significant for some companies, indicating potential investment opportunities.

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