20150713-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed overview of the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock market conditions, including the performance of key indices, sector trends, stock recommendations, and market data such as valuations, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities. It also includes information on ETFs and short-selling activity.

Main Points

Market Highlights

Hong Kong's Secretary for Development Paul Chan mentioned that the new private home supply estimate for the next three to four years could reach 81,000 units, which may benefit local developers.
China's export and import data for June are expected to show a 1% YoY growth in exports and a 15.5% YoY decline in imports, potentially impacting the market negatively.

Equity Indices

Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 24,901, up 2.1% with a 5.5% YTD increase.
HSCEI closed at 11,859, up 3.6% with a -1.1% YTD change.
Shanghai Composite closed at 3,878, up 4.5% with a 19.9% YTD increase.
Shenzhen Composite closed at 2,035, up 4.1% with a 43.8% YTD increase.
U.S. markets showed positive performance, with the DJIA rising 1.2%, S&P 500 up 1.2%, and Nasdaq Composite up 1.5%.

Hong Kong Market Turnover

HSI had a market turnover of HK$56.7bn, down by -19.20%.
HSCCI turnover was HK$10.3bn, down by -24.19%.
HSCEI turnover was HK$44.1bn, down by -6.48%.
Main Board turnover was HK$180.2bn, down by -1.31%.

External Market Conditions

U.S. stocks rallied on hopes of a Greece deal, with the DJIA up 211 points, S&P 500 up 25 points, and Nasdaq Composite up 75 points.
ADR prices dropped, effectively pushing the HSI up 28 points from the previous Friday.
Oil prices decreased slightly to $52.74 per barrel.
Gold fell after Janet Yellen indicated the possibility of a rate hike.

Yesterday's Hong Kong Equities

HSI closed at 24,901, up 508 points, while HSCEI closed at 11,858, up 412 points.
Nuclear stocks continued to rise, with CGN Power (1816.HK) up 7.5%, SH Electric (2727.HK) up 8.6%, and Dongfang Elec (1072.HK) up 8.7%.
A-share tracking ETFs showed strong performance, with CAM CSI300 (3188.HK) up 9.3% and CSOP CHINEXT (3147.HK) up 19.8%.

Key Information

Trends of HSI and HSCEI

HSI is expected to challenge the 250-day moving average, with a resistant level.
HSCEI is also showing signs of challenging its 250-day moving average, with a resistant level.

Stock in Focus: China Communications Construction (1800.HK)

Last Close: HK$10.62
Entry: HK$10.54
Target: HK$13.00
Stop-loss: HK$8.92
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: +13.8%/-14.4%/-30.5%/+92.7%
Market Cap: HK$316.14bil.
3M Average Daily Volume: 58.21mil. shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 9.04X
Performance: China Comm Cons has a significant share of overseas business, making it a prime beneficiary of the "One Belt and One Road" initiative. It has a higher operating efficiency compared to its peers and is currently trading at a compelling price.

Today's Top Picks

China Household (692):
- Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$0.35
- Purchase Price: Current price
- Target Price: HK$0.45
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.29
- Reason: Positive candlestick pattern following a hammer pattern on Thursday.
CCT Land (261):
- Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$0.027
- Purchase Price: Current price
- Target Price: HK$0.030
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.024
- Reason: The stock price rose despite substantial shareholder sales, which may attract new investors.

Sector Performance

Best Performing Sectors:
- Agriculture: +7.6%
- Heavy Machinery: +7.2%
- Brokerages: +7.2%
- Environmental and New Energy: +7.1%
- Dairy: +6.9%
- Other Metals: +6.7%
- Aluminum: +6.1%
- Building Materials: +5.9%
- Handset and related accessories: +5.8%
- Steel: +5.7%
- Technology: +5.5%
- Sports accessories: +5.5%
- Chinese Insurers: +5.4%
- Chinese Telecoms: +4.7%
- Medical: +4.2%
Major stocks in best performing sectors include:
- Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
- Heavy Machinery: Sany Int'l (631), Zoomlion (1157), Lonking (3339), Sinotruk (3808)
- Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)
- Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
- Dairy: Biostime (1112), CH Modern (1117), YST Dairy (1431), Mengniu (2319), Huishan Dairy (6863)
- Other Metals: Jiangxi Copper (358), CMOC (3993), Zhaojin Mining (1818), Zijin Mining (2899)
- Aluminum: Chalco (2600), China Hongqiao (1378), China Zhongwang (1333), RUSAL (486)
- Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Res Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)
- Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618)
- Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639)
- Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
- Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xstep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
- Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
- Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
- Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)

Forward P/E and Valuations

Hang Seng Index (HSI): FY15E P/E of 11.9, long-term average of 11.4, deviation of +4.5%, FY1 EPS growth of -13.4%, FY2 EPS growth of 9.9%
HSCEI: FY15E P/E of 8.5, long-term average of 8.9, deviation of -4.8%, FY1 EPS growth of 2.1%, FY2 EPS growth of 10.3%
Shanghai Composite: FY15E P/E of 16.3, long-term average of 11.1, deviation of +46.8%, FY1 EPS growth of 21.9%, FY2 EPS growth of 13.5%
S&P 500: FY15E P/E of 17.5, long-term average of 14.4, deviation of +22.1%, FY1 EPS growth of 4.4%, FY2 EPS growth of 12.0%

Market Data

Best and worst performers from the previous day:
- Best: RENHE COMMERCIAL (1387.HK), LANDING INTERNAT (582.HK), HUISHAN DAIRY (6863.HK), AVICHINA INDUS-H (2357.HK), OZNER WATER (2014.HK)
- Worst: TRAVELSKY TECH-H (696.HK), SINOTRANS SHIPPI (368.HK), CHINA MACHINER-H (1829.HK), HENGDELI (3389.HK), NETDRAGON WEBS (777.HK)
HSCI volume filter highlights companies with significant volume changes, such as HUISHAN DAIRY (6863.HK), EMPIROR WATCH & HAITONG SECURI-H (6837.HK), etc.
Most short sold stocks include WANT WANT CHINA (151.HK), LI & FUNG LTD (494.HK), TRINITY LTD (887.HK), etc.