20151215-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Market Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, highlighting key trends, stock performance, and valuation metrics. It also includes insights on specific stocks, ETFs, and external market conditions such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities.

Main Points

Market Conditions

The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting, with results expected to be announced on Thursday (17th Dec). Investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see attitude due to uncertainty around the market reaction to Yellen's remarks.
Hong Kong stocks showed a decline, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropping 154 points to 21,309 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) slightly rising to 9,315.
Market turnover was low, with the HSI at HK$10.2bn, HSCCI at HK$2.6bn, and HSCEI at HK$5.8bn. Main Board turnover was HK$41.2bn.
U.S. stocks rebounded as oil prices rose, with the Dow gaining 103 points, S&P 500 up 9 points, and NASDAQ up 18 points.
ADRs fell, which had a negative impact on the HSI, closing at 21,220.
Oil prices rebounded after trading below $35, closing at $36.31/bbl.
Gold prices dropped as investors anticipated the Fed's rate decision.
Interest rates showed mixed trends, with the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield at 0.8951%, and the HK 1-month HIBOR at 0.2254%.

Sector Performance

Best performing sectors include Chinese Insurers (+1.0%), Telecoms Equipment (+0.7%), Infrastructure (+0.6%), and Other Metals (+0.4%).
Worst performers include Environmental and New Energy (-0.0%), Dairy (-0.5%), and Agriculture (-0.5%).
Key stocks in best-performing sectors are listed, including China Taiping Ins. (966), ZTE (763), China Railway (390), and Jiangxi Copper (358).

Stock in Focus

Want Want China (151.HK) is highlighted with a "Buy" signal. The stock is trading at a 2015 forward P/E of 15.4x, significantly lower than its three-year average of 24.1x.
The company has executed 20 buybacks in recent months, involving 114 million shares, or nearly 0.9% of issued shares as of the end of October.
Want Want China has a gross margin of 42.5% and an operating profit rate of 20.4%, indicating improved margins but increased promotional costs.
The stock is expected to rise from HK$5.65 to HK$6.65, with a stop-loss at HK$4.97.

Today's Top Picks

Fosun Pharma (2196.HK) is suggested with a target price of HK$23.90 and a stop-loss at HK$20.00. The stock is expected to rebound after a correction.
China Jinmao (817.HK) is recommended with a target price of HK$2.70 and a stop-loss at HK$2.32. The stock is expected to find support near the bottom of its upward trend due to government policies on real estate inventory absorption.

Valuation Analysis

Forward P/E and valuation of major indices are provided. The HSI is at 10.7x, while the HSCEI is at 7.0x, significantly below its long-term average of 8.5x.
The Shanghai Composite is at 14.8x, higher than its long-term average of 11.0x.
The S&P 500 is at 17.0x, higher than its long-term average of 14.7x.

Market Data

Best and worst performers from the previous day are listed, with notable declines in China Shipping-H (2866.HK) and China Cosco HO-H (1919.HK).
HSCI volume filter highlights stocks with significant volume changes, such as BAOXIN AUTO GROU (1293.HK) and FOSUN PHARMA-H (2196.HK).
Most short sold stocks are also listed, including OZNER WATER (2014.HK) and YUEXIU TRANSPORT (1052.HK).

External Market Conditions

Interest rates, exchange rates, precious metals, and commodities are analyzed, showing mixed trends.
USD/HKD remained stable at 7.7503, while USD/CNY and USD/CNH showed declines.
Commodities like WTI Crude and Brent Crude continued to decline, while LME Copper saw a slight increase.

A-share Premium to H-share

A list of companies listed on both A-share and H-share markets is provided, with A-share premium to H-share percentages.
Notable examples include LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108), SINOPEC OILFIE-H (1033), and CHINA SHENHUA-H (1088), with premiums ranging from 44.4% to 641.7%.

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

A list of top 20 most traded ETFs is provided, with details on their prices and daily/5-day changes.
Examples include TRACKER FUND HK (2800), HS H-SHARE ETF-H (2828), and CSI HK100 TRACK (2825), showing mixed performance with some ETFs declining and others slightly rising.

Key Information

The Fed's rate decision is a key factor influencing market sentiment.
Chinese property stocks are expected to be a focus due to government policies and mortgage interest deductions.
Want Want China and Fosun Pharma are highlighted as potential investment opportunities.
China Jinmao is suggested due to favorable valuation and potential government support.
Market volatility is expected to continue, with low turnover and uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decision.
The HSCEI is seeking its lows, while the HSI may hit 21,000 points.
The A-share premium to H-share is significant for many companies, indicating potential investment opportunities.