20150707-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and global markets, including equity indices, sector performance, stock analysis, and market data. It highlights key trends, notable stock movements, and investment opportunities based on the latest market information.

Main Market Indices

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 25,236, down 3.2% on the day, with a 6.9% year-to-date (YTD) increase.
HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index): Closed at 12,231, down 3.0% on the day, with a 2.1% YTD increase.
Shanghai Composite Index: Closed at 3,776, up 2.4% on the day, with a 16.7% YTD increase.
Shenzhen Composite Index: Closed at 2,042, down 2.7% on the day, with a 44.3% YTD increase.
DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40, Nikkei 225, and Taiwan Weighted: All indices showed mixed performance with some declines and others showing slight increases.

Market Trends

The HSI retreated to its previous peak and the top of the ascending channel, indicating a potential consolidation phase.
The HSCEI found initial support at the 250-day moving average (MA), suggesting a possible rebound.

Stock in Focus: Wanda Comm (3699.HK)

Last Close: HK$52.00
Entry: HK$51.00
Target: HK$62.00
Stop-loss: HK$49.00
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: +5.0% / -32.6% / +7.9% / N/A
Market Cap: HK$33.93 billion
3M Average Daily Volume: 9.74 million shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 9.8X

Key Points:

Wanda Comm is the largest operator and developer of shopping centers, commercial properties, and luxury hotels in Mainland China.
The company reported strong sales in 1H 2015, with total income up 12% YoY and achieving 101% of the target.
The "light-asset business model" is expected to enhance profitability, with rental income targeting to reach ~67% of total net profit by 2020.
Despite recent market weakness and lock-up period sell-offs, the stock is currently undervalued with a forward P/E of 9.8X, below the 10.5X average since listing.

Today's Top Picks

1. X DBCSI300-FIN (2844.HK)

Last Trading Day Closing: HK$14.40
Purchase Price: Current price
Target Price: HK$15.30
Stop-loss Price: HK$13.60
Reason: The ETF mainly invests in Chinese financial stocks.

2. CSOP A50 (2822.HK)

Last Trading Day Closing: HK$15.10
Purchase Price: Current price
Target Price: HK$16.00
Stop-loss Price: HK$14.60
Reason: China's efforts to stabilize the stock market may benefit large-cap stocks.

Sector Performance

The following sectors showed negative performance on the previous day:

REITs: -1.3%
Local Property: -1.6%
Consumer Staples: -1.8%
Chinese Banks: -2.6%
HK Consumer Group: -2.7%
HK Telecoms: -3.3%
Airline: -3.3%
Gas: -3.3%
Chinese Insurers: -3.7%
Automobile: -3.7%
Other Metals: -3.8%
Gaming: -4.1%
Local Banks: -4.1%
Chinese Telecoms: -4.1%
Coal: -4.3%

Valuations and Forward P/E of Major Indices

Index	FY15E P/E (X)	Long-term avg. Fwd. P/E (X)	Deviation from avg. (%)	FY1 EPS growth (%)	FY2 EPS growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	12.0	11.4	5.3	(13.0)	9.7
HSCEI	8.7	8.9	(2.2)	2.5	10.2
Shanghai Comp	15.7	11.1	41.7	22.7	13.3
S&P 500	17.4	14.4	21.2	4.7	11.9

Market Data Highlights

Best Performers (Previous Day)

TIAN LUN GAS: +4.6% (1D), +1.6% (5D), -0.7% (1M), -7.4% (YTD)
LUK FOOK HLDGS I: +2.5% (1D), +0.2% (5D), +1.3% (1M), -22.3% (YTD)
ZALL DEVELOPMENT: +2.3% (1D), -10.4% (5D), +2.6% (1M), +11.0% (YTD)
BLOOMAGE BIOTE: +1.8% (1D), -9.1% (5D), -20.5% (1M), -0.6% (YTD)
CHINA OCEANWIDE: +0.8% (1D), -15.7% (5D), -18.4% (1M), +89.7% (YTD)

Worst Performers (Previous Day)

CHINA PUBLIC PRO: -22.6% (1D), -31.7% (5D), -37.9% (1M), +19.9% (YTD)
WISDOM HOLDINGS: -22.0% (1D), -36.7% (5D), -40.8% (1M), -5.3% (YTD)
FORGAME HOLDINGS: -19.7% (1D), -34.7% (5D), -38.0% (1M), +5.4% (YTD)
SFCE: -19.4% (1D), -33.3% (5D), -41.1% (1M), -45.4% (YTD)
COOLPAD: -18.5% (1D), -38.7% (5D), -34.4% (1M), +20.9% (YTD)

A-share Premium to H-share

The table shows the A-share premium to H-share for several companies, with notable examples:

SINOPEC OILFIE-H: H-share price HK$2.86, A-share price RMB10.37, A-share premium to H-share: 352.6%
LUOYANG GLASS-H: H-share price HK$3.86, A-share price RMB13.09, A-share premium to H-share: 323.3%
ZIJIN MINING-H: H-share price HK$2.38, A-share price RMB4.28, A-share premium to H-share: 124.5%
PING AN-H: H-share price HK$34.40, A-share price RMB29.36, A-share premium to H-share: 6.5%

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

CSOP FTSE CH-HKD (2822): HK$15.10, 3.99% (1D), -3.33% (5D)
ISHARES FTSE A50 (2823): HK$13.72, 2.08% (1D), 0.44% (5D)
HS H-SHARE ETF (2828): HK$125.00, -2.72% (1D), -5.52% (5D)
TRACKER FUND HK (2800): HK$25.85, -3.00% (1D), -5.14% (5D)
CHINAAMC 300-HKD (3188): HK$50.45, 2.96% (1D), -10.71% (5D)
CSOP FTSE CH-RMB (82822): HK$12.10, 3.77% (1D), -3.04% (5D)
CSI 300 CHINA (2827): HK$39.20, 2.75% (1D), -4.62% (5D)
CSOP SZSE ETF-HK (3147): HK$11.30, -4.88% (1D), -14.52% (5D)
CHINAAMC 300-CNY (83188): HK$40.80, 2.77% (1D), -9.33% (5D)
HSI ETF (2833): HK$256.60, -3.02% (1D), -5.31% (5D)
SPDR GOLD SHARES (2840): HK$865.00, -0.23% (1D), -0.92% (5D)

External Market Conditions

The US market fell due to concerns over the Greek referendum and energy sector losses from falling oil prices.
HSI Futures (July) closed at 25,421, up 137 points, with a premium of 185 points.
Oil prices declined as Iran may resume crude supply, and the Greek crisis affected Europe's crude demand.
New York crude oil futures closed at US$52.86/bbl, down US$4.07.
New York gold futures settled at US$1,173.2/oz, up US$9.7.

Summary of Key Market Information

The Hong Kong market is expected to stabilize following a sharp fall.
Evergrande reported a 88.8% YoY increase in June contracted sales, contributing to market sentiment.
Wanda Comm is highlighted as a stock with strong fundamentals and a promising light-asset model.
The A-share premium to H-share indicates significant valuation discrepancies for several large Chinese companies.
ETFs and market indices show mixed performance, with some showing positive trends and others declining.
Interest rates and exchange rates are also noted, with U.S. Treasury yields and HK HIBOR levels affecting market conditions.
Precious metals and commodities show mixed trends, with gold rising and oil prices falling.