20150723-新鸿基金融-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions in Hong Kong and the broader market, including performance of major indices, stock highlights, and various financial indicators. It also includes analysis of specific stocks, sector performance, valuations, and market data such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Equity Indices Performance

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 25,283, down 1.0%, with a year-to-date (YTD) change of +7.1%.
• HSCEI: Closed at 11,734, down 1.2%, with a YTD change of -2.1%.
• Shanghai Composite: Closed at 4,026, up 0.2%, with a YTD change of +24.5%.
• Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 2,288, up 1.0%, with a YTD change of +61.7%.
• DJIA: Closed at 17,851, down 0.4%.
• S&P 500: Closed at 2,114, down 0.2%.
• Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 5,172, down 0.7%.
• FTSE 100: Closed at 6,667, down 1.5%.
• DAX: Closed at 11,521, down 0.7%.
• CAC 40: Closed at 5,083, down 0.5%.
• Nikkei 225: Closed at 20,692, up 0.5%.
• Taiwan Weighted: Closed at 8,919, down 1.0%.

2. Hong Kong Market Turnover

• HSI: Turnover of HK$21.6bn, down -16.74%.
• HSCCI: Turnover of HK$5.0bn, down -3.66%.
• HSCEI: Turnover of HK$15.3bn, down -27.77%.
• Main Board: Turnover of HK$81.7bn, down -10.69%.

3. Market Highlights

• Ping An (2318.HK): Announced a positive profit alert, with expected half-year net profit rising ~62% YoY.
• Tianjin Dev (882.HK): Acquired a pharmaceutical company for RMB 2.3bn, part of state-owned enterprise reform.
• Apple's sales performance and related stocks were under pressure.
• Insurance stocks (New China Life Insurance, PICC, China Taiping) declined due to pension fund investment news not benefiting them.

4. Stock in Focus: Greenland HK (337.HK)

• Last Close: HK$5.43
• Entry: HK$5.20
• Target: HK$6.60
• Stop-loss: HK$4.70
• YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: +76.3%/-15.8%/-17.6%/+57.4%
• Market Cap: HK$13.65bn
• 3M Average Daily Volume: 17.11mn shares
• FY1 Forward P/E: 13.6X
• Reason for Investment: Optimistic property sales, potential asset injection from parent company, and new business in Internet banking.

5. Today's Top Picks

• Beijing Media (1000.HK):

  • Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$8.20
  • Purchase Price: Current price
  • Target Price: HK$9.10
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$7.50
  • Reason: Share price tends to be bullish, aggressive investor may follow up.

• CCT Land (261.HK):

  • Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$0.030
  • Purchase Price: Current price
  • Target Price: HK$0.033
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$0.027
  • Reason: Share price tried to break 20-day MA, may turn bullish.

6. Sector Performance Overview

• Best Performing Sectors (1D % change):

  • Agriculture: 0.7%
  • REITs: 0.2%
  • Sports Accessories: 0.2%
  • Gas: 0.2%
  • Oil-related: -0.3%
  • Local Property: -0.4%
  • Durable Consumables: -0.6%
  • Heavy Machinery: -0.6%
  • Dairy: -0.6%
  • HK Consumer Group: -0.8%
  • Aluminum: -0.8%
  • Medical: -0.9%
  • Building Materials: -1.0%
  • Marine: -1.0%
  • Department Store: -1.1%

• Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors:

  • Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
  • REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
  • Sports Accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xstep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
  • Gas: China Gas (384), Beijing Enterprises (392), ENN Energy (2688), CIMC Enric (3899), China Res Gas (1193)
  • Oil-related: Sinopec (386), PetroChina (857), CNOOC (883), Hilong Hldg. (1623), China Oilfield Services (2883)
  • Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
  • Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
  • Heavy Machinery: Sany Int'l (631), Zoomlion (1157), Lonking (3339), Sinotruk (3808)
  • Dairy: Biostime (1112), CH Modern (1117), YST Dairy (1431), Mengniu (2319), Huishan Dairy (6863)
  • HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
  • Aluminum: Chalco (2600), China Hongqiao (1378), China Zhongwang (1333), RUSAL (486)
  • Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)
  • Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Res Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)
  • Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
  • Department Store: NWDS China (825), Springland (1700), Intime (1833), Golden Eagle (3308), Parkson Group (3368)

7. Forward P/E and Valuations of Major Indices

• Hang Seng Index: FY15E P/E of 12.2, long-term average of 11.4, deviation of +6.6%, FY1 EPS growth of -14.3%, FY2 EPS growth of +10.0%.
• HSCEI: FY15E P/E of 8.4, long-term average of 8.9, deviation of -5.5%, FY1 EPS growth of +0.7%, FY2 EPS growth of +10.0%.
• Shanghai Composite: FY15E P/E of 16.6, long-term average of 11.1, deviation of +50.0%, FY1 EPS growth of +23.3%, FY2 EPS growth of +13.5%.
• S&P 500: FY15E P/E of 17.8, long-term average of 14.4, deviation of +24.1%, FY1 EPS growth of +4.1%, FY2 EPS growth of +11.7%.

8. Market Data

• Previous Day's Best and Worst Performers:

  • Best: Tianjin Dev Hldg. (882.HK), FDG Evevehicles (729.HK), Xinyi Solar Hlds. (968.HK), Yashili Int'l (1230.HK), Kerry Ppt (683.HK)
  • Worst: AAC Technologies (2018.HK), OZNER Water (2014.HK), Landing Internat. (582.HK), Hi Sun Technologies (818.HK), Wumart-H (1025.HK)

• HSCI Volume Filter:

  • BioTime Internat. (1112.HK): Avg. vol. of 2.3m shares, prev. vol. of 8.7m shares, increase of 280.6%, FY1 P/E of 12.0, FY2 P/E of 11.2
  • OZNER Water (2014.HK): Avg. vol. of 5.5m shares, prev. vol. of 14.0m shares, increase of 152.8%, FY1 P/E of 12.4, FY2 P/E of 15.7
  • ASM Pacific (522.HK): Avg. vol. of 0.6m shares, prev. vol. of 1.1m shares, increase of 96.8%, FY1 P/E of 15.2, FY2 P/E of 13.6
  • Redco Properties (1622.HK): Avg. vol. of 2.2m shares, prev. vol. of 4.6m shares, increase of 110.7%, FY1 P/E of 15.1, FY2 P/E of 11.4
  • China ZhenGTong (1728.HK): Avg. vol. of 8.6m shares, prev. vol. of 17.6m shares, increase of 104.7%, FY1 P/E of 8.4, FY2 P/E of 6.8

• Most Short Sold Stocks:

  • TCL Comm Tech Hldg. (2618.HK): Shortsell turnover of HK$11.8m, 0.2% of total, 55.2% of own turnover, FY1 P/E of 5.9, FY2 P/E of 5.4
  • ASM Pacific (522.HK): Shortsell turnover of HK$47.2m, 0.7% of total, 54.9% of own turnover, FY1 P/E of 15.2, FY2 P/E of 13.6
  • Kerry Logistics (636.HK): Shortsell turnover of HK$7.4m, 0.1% of total, 54.8% of own turnover, FY1 P/E of 11.8, FY2 P/E of 10.4
  • Shui On Land (272.HK): Shortsell turnover of HK$15.6m, 0.2% of total, 54.6% of own turnover, FY1 P/E of 8.4, FY2 P/E of 6.8
  • Citic Sec-H (6030.HK): Shortsell turnover of HK$24.0m, 3.0% of total, 53.2% of own turnover, FY1 P/E of 12.1, FY2 P/E of 10.7

9. Interest Rates

• U.S. 2-year Treasury Yield: 0.7104%, up 5.52bps in 5D, up 3.25bps in 1M, up 4.59bps in YTD, y-y change of +24.29%
• U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield: 2.3163%, down 3.40bps in 5D, down 9.24bps in 1M, up 14.51bps in YTD, y-y change of -14.92%
• U.S. 30-year Treasury Yield: 3.0327%, down 7.62bps in 5D, down 16.37bps in 1M, up 28.09bps in YTD, y-y change of -23.09%
• HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2397%, up 0.01bps in 5D, up 0.19bps in 1M, up 0.45bps in YTD, y-y change of +1.69%
• HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3885%, up 0.04bps in 5D, up 0.25bps in 1M, up 0.71bps in YTD, y-y change of +1.35%
• SH 1-month HIBOR: 3.0180%, down 3.30bps in 5D, down 34.10bps in 1M, down 257.00bps in YTD, y-y change of -209.70%
• SH 3-month HIBOR: 3.1563%, up 0.43bps in 5D, up 5.13bps in 1M, down 197.88bps in YTD, y-y change of -159.02%

10. Exchange Rates

• USD Dollar Index: 97.4810, down 0.2% in 5D, down 2.1% in 1M, down 8.0% in YTD, y-y change of -20.6%
• USD/HKD: 7.7505, unchanged in 5D, unchanged in 1M, up 0.1% in YTD, y-y change of 0.0%
• EUR/USD: 1.0926, up 0.5% in 5D, down 2.2% in 1M, down 9.7% in YTD, y-y change of -18.8%
• USD/JPY: 124.08, up 0.1% in 5D, down 0.1% in 1M, down 3.5% in YTD, y-y change of -18.2%
• GBP/USD: 1.5610, unchanged in 5D, down 0.8% in 1M, up 0.2% in YTD, y-y change of -8.4%
• USD/CHF: 0.9601, down 0.2% in 5D, down 2.7% in 1M, up 3.6% in YTD, y-y change of -6.0%
• AUD/USD: 0.7361, down 0.6% in 5D, down 4.8% in 1M, down 9.9% in YTD, y-y change of -22.2%
• NZD/USD: 0.6603, up 1.4% in 5D, down 3.7% in 1M, down 15.4% in YTD, y-y change of -24.1%
• USD/CAD: 1.3046, down 0.7% in 5D, down 5.5% in 1M, down 10.9% in YTD, y-y change of -17.8%
• USD/CNY: 6.2100, unchanged in 5D, unchanged in 1M, down 0.1% in YTD, y-y change of -0.2%
• USD/CNH: 6.2131, unchanged in 5D, down 0.2% in 1M, up 0.1% in YTD, y-y change of -0.3%

11. Precious Metals and Commodities

• CRB Index: 209.3, down 3.4% in 5D, down 6.7% in 1M, down 9.0% in YTD, y-y change of -29.9%
• Comex Gold: 1,093.5, down 4.4% in 5D, down 7.1% in 1M, down 7.7% in YTD, y-y change of -16.2%
• Comex Silver: 14.750, down 1.6% in 5D, down 6.3% in 1M, down 5.2% in YTD, y-y change of -29.7%
• Nymex WTI Crude: 49.27, down 3.2% in 5D, down 19.2% in 1M, down 7.5% in YTD, y-y change of -52.2%
• ICE Brent Crude: 56.09, down 2.5% in 5D, down 13.0% in 1M, down 2.2% in YTD, y-y change of -48.1%
• LME Copper: 5361, down 3.1% in 5D, down 5.2% in 1M, down 14.9% in YTD, y-y change of -23.8%
• LME Aluminum: 1659, down 3.4% in 5D, down 2.9% in 1M, down 10.4% in YTD, y-y change of -18.8%
• CBT Wheat: 517.25, down 8.0% in 5D, down 0.8% in 1M, down 12.3% in YTD, y-y change of -2.5%
• CBT Corn: 402.25, down 6.5% in 5D, up 9.5% in 1M, up 1.3% in YTD, y-y change of +11.0%
• CBT Soybean: 1023.25, up 0.4% in 5D, up 3.6% in 1M, up 0.4% in YTD, y-y change of -14.8%

12. A-share Premium to H-share

• Sinopec Oilfie-H (1033.HK): Price of HK$2.62, A-share price of RMB 9.68, premium of 361.1%
• Luoyang Glass-H (1108.HK): Price of HK$4.32, A-share price of RMB 15.70, premium of 353.6%
• Zoomlion Heavy-H (1157.HK): Price of HK$4.11, A-share price of RMB 6.54, premium of 98.6%
• China Gas Holding (384.HK): Price of HK$12.90, A-share price of RMB 19.91, premium of 30.0%
• Ping An-H (2318.HK): Price of HK$96.60, A-share price of RMB 79.25, premium of 2.4%
• New China Life Insurance-H (1336.HK): Price of HK$37.40, A-share price of RMB 48.73, premium of 62.6%
• China Vanke-H (2202.HK): Price of HK$18.92, A-share price of RMB 14.70, premium of -3.0%

13. Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

• ISHARES FTSE A50 (2823.HK): Price of HK$12.92, down 1.67% in 1D, down 1.67% in 5D
• CSOP FTSE CH-HKD (2822.HK): Price of HK$15.10, down 1.05% in 1D, down 0.13% in 5D
• HS H-share ETF (2828.HK): Price of HK$119.40, down 1.16% in 1D, up 0.25% in 5D
• TRACKER FUND HK (2800.HK): Price of HK$25.90, down 0.96% in 1D, up 0.97% in 5D
• ChinaAMC 300-HKD (3188.HK): Price of HK$51.25, down 0.49% in 1D, up 3.22% in 5D
• CSOP FTSE CH-RMB (82822.HK): Price of HK$12.10, down 1.31% in 1D, down 0.49% in 5D
• DBX MSCI INDIA (3045.HK): Price of HK$83.50, up 0.06% in 1D, up 1.33% in 5D
• ChinaAMC 300-CNY (83188.HK): Price of HK$41.10, down 0.36% in 1D, up 2.75% in 5D
• SPDR GOLD SHARES (2840.HK): Price of HK$812.00, down 1.10% in 1D, down 5.25% in 5D
• CSOP SZSE ETF-HK (3147.HK): Price of HK$12.76, up 1.59% in 1D, up 13.52% in 5D
• WISE SSE50ETF (3024.HK): Price of HK$24.90, unchanged in 1D, down 1.39% in 5D
• CSI 300 China (2827.HK): Price of HK$36.80, down 0.00% in 1D, up 2.75% in 5D
• Other ETFs: Data is truncated for brevity.

Summary

This document offers a detailed analysis of the Hong Kong and global markets, highlighting the performance of major indices, key stock movements, and sector trends. It also includes insights into specific stocks such as Greenland HK and Beijing Media, which are recommended for investment based on their potential for growth. The document further provides information on interest rates, exchange rates, precious metals, and commodities, along with the A-share premium to H-share for select companies. The top 20 most traded ETFs are also listed, offering insight into market trends and investor behavior.